Art Points News

Will net demand for graphic designers fall by 50% or more by 2025?

Aug 10, 1:31 AMSep 1, 3:59 AM

15.29%chance

9117542

OptionVotes

YES

2670

2113

In what specific year will we hit AGI?

Mar 12, 9:42 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

417324

6. An AI system will pass the Turing test for speech.

Dec 27, 8:17 AMJan 3, 10:59 PM

70.97%chance

142307

OptionVotes

YES

1564

640

Will my friends' kid ever be better at any knowledge-work than cutting-edge AI, by 2040?

Mar 26, 12:52 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

15%chance

15782

OptionVotes

YES

1675

819

[Carlini questions] Cost of single SOTA AI system training run by 2027

Mar 24, 2:00 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

3275

[Carlini questions] AI system can produce a high-quality live-action hour-long movie given a rough script

Mar 24, 2:23 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

7264

OptionProbability

By Jan 1st 2030

By Jan 1st 2029

By Jan 1st 2028

By Jan 1st 2027

By Jan 1st 2026

2025 SOTA LLM releases cause Kokotajlo to increase AGI timeline estimate?

Apr 9, 4:48 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

33.14%chance

14159

OptionVotes

YES

142

[Carlini questions] Cost of single SOTA AI system training run by 2030

Mar 24, 2:01 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

495

What will Tumbles rate the Project Hail Mary movie out of 10?

Aug 1, 2:01 PMMar 31, 11:51 AM

65%chance

774

OptionVotes

YES

136

Is Jose Luis Ricon FUNNIER than JOSCHA BACH, jose luis ricon, razib khan, @repligate/janus , alexey guzey, qiaochu yuan?

May 2, 4:30 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

40.19%chance

122

OptionVotes

YES

122

Non-token based CoTs in SOTA reasoning models EOY 2026?

Jul 21, 5:03 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

115

OptionProbability

All: All SOTA reasoning models use non-token-based CoT

Some: At least one, but not all, SOTA reasoning models use non-token- based CoT

None: No SOTA reasoning models use non-token-based CoT

If Aliens Experience More Meaningful Lives Than us, Ought we Accept Our Demise? (Read Description)

Apr 16, 6:00 PM

130

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Will net demand for graphic designers fall by 50% or more by 2025?

In what specific year will we hit AGI?

6. An AI system will pass the Turing test for speech.

Will my friends' kid ever be better at any knowledge-work than cutting-edge AI, by 2040?

[Carlini questions] Cost of single SOTA AI system training run by 2027

[Carlini questions] AI system can produce a high-quality live-action hour-long movie given a rough script

2025 SOTA LLM releases cause Kokotajlo to increase AGI timeline estimate?

[Carlini questions] Cost of single SOTA AI system training run by 2030

What will Tumbles rate the Project Hail Mary movie out of 10?

Is Jose Luis Ricon FUNNIER than JOSCHA BACH, jose luis ricon, razib khan, @repligate/janus , alexey guzey, qiaochu yuan?

Non-token based CoTs in SOTA reasoning models EOY 2026?

If Aliens Experience More Meaningful Lives Than us, Ought we Accept Our Demise? (Read Description)

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