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Prediction markets for Article 12

Which answers will exactly match a full New York Times front page headline before 2028? [READ DESCRIPTION]

Feb 27, 5:16 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

11345613

OptionProbability

Guilty [after June 5, 2024]

Not Guilty

Trump impeached

China invades Taiwan

China attacks Taiwan

Market Meltdown

Record Broken for Hottest Day on Earth

America Under Attack

Government shuts down

Joe Biden Dead at 83

U.S. Attacked

Putin to step down

Xi dead

Landmark Decision

War declared

Fed announces

Trump

Gaza

Woman Walks on the Moon

Election overturned

Griswold Overturned

Swing States

Ceasefire established in Gaza

Putin killed

On all counts

Trump again

Trump wins

Trump convicted

Four more years

Haley to suspend campaign

Extraterrestrials Are Real

Artificial Intelligence

Putin is dead

Madam President

Jimmy Carter dies

Biden wins

Biden resigns

Biden wins again

Biden's Age is Becoming the Central Issue of the Campaign

Biden Re-elected

Sentenced to

Path to

23

22

13

13

12

11

11

10

9

9

8

7

7

6

6

6

6

6

6

6

6

6

5

5

5

5

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

3

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

Will Jaime Maussan's 'nonhuman beings' (2023) still be considered an 'elaborate hoax' by Wikipedia in 2030?

Dec 20, 3:28 AMJan 2, 3:59 AM

94.17%chance

1814147

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1736

912

By the end of 2028 will AI be able to write an original article and get it accepted in a prestigious Philosophy journal?

Mar 22, 5:09 AMDec 31, 12:59 PM

51.75%chance

4910166

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1052

911

Will measles become endemic in the U.S. due to the current Texas outbreak?

Mar 28, 8:28 PMApr 1, 10:59 PM

22.64%chance

152003

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1725

658

I write 12 Substack articles (1000+ words) by EOY2025?

Mar 20, 9:44 PMJan 1, 12:00 AM

45.91%chance

7582

OptionVotes

YES

NO

109

92

Will the next North Korean nuclear weapon test be on a sunny morning?

Nov 18, 12:17 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

78%chance

16422

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1122

949

Do short sleeper genes exist, and do they accelerate repair proccesses?

Aug 10, 5:55 PMDec 18, 2:59 PM

59.88%chance

19407

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1081

928

Will AI make a net income of at least $1 mln starting from at most $100 000, on a retail web platform in a few months?

Sep 6, 5:04 PMJul 31, 9:59 PM

14.65%chance

11390

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1181

943

Any of these 30 LLM-generated disasters happens in Europe through 2027

Sep 11, 4:24 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM

63.06%chance

8279

OptionVotes

YES

NO

105

103

Kendrick Lamar has "Kanye-West-level meltdown" before 2030?

Apr 8, 10:34 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

9.36%chance

8269

OptionVotes

YES

NO

311

32

Will "Some articles in “International Security” tha..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Feb 18, 12:36 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

13.08%chance

17

OptionVotes

YES

NO

107

99

Will "Eliezer's Lost Alignment Articles / The Arbit..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Feb 20, 4:37 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

100

100

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