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Prediction markets for Article 21

Will Donald Trump be impeached and removed during his second term?

Nov 6, 6:51 PMJan 22, 7:59 AM

5.79%chance

8350719

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4033

248

Will this Yudkowsky tweet on AI babysitters hold up by Feb 2028?

Feb 21, 6:53 PMFeb 22, 5:59 AM

24.4%chance

11515870

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2039

595

By the end of 2028 will AI be able to write an original article and get it accepted in a prestigious Philosophy journal?

Mar 22, 5:09 AMDec 31, 12:59 PM

53.3%chance

6313398

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1023

943

Will Donald Trump be impeached by the House of Representatives during his second term?

Nov 6, 6:44 PMJan 22, 7:59 AM

65.24%chance

469242

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1370

730

Will JD Vance be impeached during Trump's second term?

Nov 6, 7:52 PMJan 22, 7:59 AM

12.76%chance

171384

OptionVotes

YES

NO

266

39

Will JD Vance be impeached and removed during Trump's second term?

Nov 6, 7:55 PMJan 22, 7:59 AM

10.23%chance

7355

OptionVotes

YES

NO

296

34

Any of these 30 LLM-generated disasters happens in Europe through 2027

Sep 11, 4:24 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM

76.29%chance

10325

OptionVotes

NO

YES

154

83

Will James Fishback get more than 9% of the vote in the 2026 Florida Gubernatorial GOP Primary?

Feb 10, 2:57 AMAug 25, 11:59 PM

53.07%chance

9194

OptionVotes

NO

YES

321

280

Will any CSTO member state successfully invoke Article 4 in 2026?

Jun 26, 1:08 PMDec 31, 8:00 PM

44.09%chance

5142

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1126

888

Will Saudi Arabia end male guardianship over adult women by 2030?

Jan 8, 9:01 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

61.46%chance

691

OptionVotes

NO

YES

189

119

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