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Article 21 News
Prediction markets for Article 21
Prediction markets for Article 21
Will Donald Trump be impeached and removed during his second term?
Nov 6, 6:51 PM
Jan 22, 7:59 AM
4.97%
chance
85
51209
Option
Votes
YES
NO
4373
229
Will this Yudkowsky tweet on AI babysitters hold up by Feb 2028?
Feb 21, 6:53 PM
Feb 22, 5:59 AM
23.47%
chance
116
15920
Option
Votes
YES
NO
2089
579
By the end of 2028 will AI be able to write an original article and get it accepted in a prestigious Philosophy journal?
Mar 22, 5:09 AM
Dec 31, 12:59 PM
66.88%
chance
63
13748
Option
Votes
NO
YES
1293
793
Will Donald Trump be impeached by the House of Representatives during his second term?
Nov 6, 6:44 PM
Jan 22, 7:59 AM
62.71%
chance
52
9836
Option
Votes
NO
YES
1297
771
Will JD Vance be impeached during Trump's second term?
Nov 6, 7:52 PM
Jan 22, 7:59 AM
6.43%
chance
19
1477
Option
Votes
YES
NO
388
27
Will JD Vance be impeached and removed during Trump's second term?
Nov 6, 7:55 PM
Jan 22, 7:59 AM
10.23%
chance
7
355
Option
Votes
YES
NO
296
34
Any of these 30 LLM-generated disasters happens in Europe through 2027
Sep 11, 4:24 PM
Jan 2, 6:59 AM
76.29%
chance
10
325
Option
Votes
NO
YES
154
83
Will any CSTO member state successfully invoke Article 4 in 2026?
Jun 26, 1:08 PM
Dec 31, 8:00 PM
44.09%
chance
6
144
Option
Votes
YES
NO
1126
888
Will Saudi Arabia end male guardianship over adult women by 2030?
Jan 8, 9:01 PM
Jan 1, 7:59 AM
61.46%
chance
6
91
Option
Votes
NO
YES
189
119
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