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Article 21 News
Prediction markets for Article 21
Prediction markets for Article 21
Will this Yudkowsky tweet on AI babysitters hold up by Feb 2028?
Feb 21, 6:53 PM
Feb 22, 5:59 AM
46.63%
chance
104
12863
Option
Votes
YES
NO
1271
1003
By the end of 2028 will AI be able to write an original article and get it accepted in a prestigious Philosophy journal?
Mar 22, 5:09 AM
Dec 31, 12:59 PM
51.75%
chance
49
10166
Option
Votes
YES
NO
1052
911
Will Donald Trump be impeached and removed during his second term?
Nov 6, 6:51 PM
Jan 22, 7:59 AM
6.89%
chance
37
5777
Option
Votes
YES
NO
3675
272
Will Donald Trump be impeached by the House of Representatives during his second term?
Nov 6, 6:44 PM
Jan 22, 7:59 AM
53%
chance
27
4289
Option
Votes
NO
YES
1062
942
Will JD Vance be impeached during Trump's second term?
Nov 6, 7:52 PM
Jan 22, 7:59 AM
5.24%
chance
12
635
Option
Votes
YES
NO
425
24
Will JD Vance be impeached and removed during Trump's second term?
Nov 6, 7:55 PM
Jan 22, 7:59 AM
8.26%
chance
4
305
Option
Votes
YES
NO
333
30
Any of these 30 LLM-generated disasters happens in Europe through 2027
Sep 11, 4:24 PM
Jan 2, 6:59 AM
63.06%
chance
8
279
Option
Votes
YES
NO
105
103
Will Saudi Arabia end male guardianship over adult women by 2030?
Jan 8, 9:01 PM
Jan 1, 7:59 AM
53.02%
chance
5
61
Option
Votes
NO
YES
159
141
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