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Article 21 News
Prediction markets for Article 21
Prediction markets for Article 21
Will Donald Trump be impeached and removed during his second term?
Nov 6, 6:51 PM
Jan 22, 7:59 AM
6.26%
chance
73
44353
Option
Votes
YES
NO
3869
258
Will this Yudkowsky tweet on AI babysitters hold up by Feb 2028?
Feb 21, 6:53 PM
Feb 22, 5:59 AM
23%
chance
115
15794
Option
Votes
YES
NO
2116
571
By the end of 2028 will AI be able to write an original article and get it accepted in a prestigious Philosophy journal?
Mar 22, 5:09 AM
Dec 31, 12:59 PM
45%
chance
60
12466
Option
Votes
YES
NO
1187
785
Will Donald Trump be impeached by the House of Representatives during his second term?
Nov 6, 6:44 PM
Jan 22, 7:59 AM
69.68%
chance
44
8451
Option
Votes
NO
YES
1517
660
Will JD Vance be impeached during Trump's second term?
Nov 6, 7:52 PM
Jan 22, 7:59 AM
12.76%
chance
17
1384
Option
Votes
YES
NO
266
39
Will JD Vance be impeached and removed during Trump's second term?
Nov 6, 7:55 PM
Jan 22, 7:59 AM
9.69%
chance
7
354
Option
Votes
YES
NO
305
33
Any of these 30 LLM-generated disasters happens in Europe through 2027
Sep 11, 4:24 PM
Jan 2, 6:59 AM
63.06%
chance
8
279
Option
Votes
YES
NO
105
103
Will James Fishback get more than 9% of the vote in the 2026 Florida Gubernatorial GOP Primary?
Feb 10, 2:57 AM
Aug 25, 11:59 PM
56.06%
chance
6
168
Option
Votes
NO
YES
341
264
Will Saudi Arabia end male guardianship over adult women by 2030?
Jan 8, 9:01 PM
Jan 1, 7:59 AM
57.47%
chance
6
76
Option
Votes
NO
YES
174
129
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