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Prediction markets for Article 21

Will Donald Trump be impeached and removed during his second term?

Nov 6, 6:51 PMJan 22, 7:59 AM

5.26%chance

6634223

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4242

236

Will this Yudkowsky tweet on AI babysitters hold up by Feb 2028?

Feb 21, 6:53 PMFeb 22, 5:59 AM

25.33%chance

11415508

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1992

610

By the end of 2028 will AI be able to write an original article and get it accepted in a prestigious Philosophy journal?

Mar 22, 5:09 AMDec 31, 12:59 PM

36.31%chance

5711924

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1395

643

Will Donald Trump be impeached by the House of Representatives during his second term?

Nov 6, 6:44 PMJan 22, 7:59 AM

63.64%chance

417749

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1323

756

Will the lithium carbonate (Li2CO3) spot price fall below $7,000 per tonne on April 1, 2026?

Mar 2, 6:09 PMApr 1, 6:08 PM

15.79%chance

3370

OptionVotes

YES

NO

225

52

Will the lithium carbonate (Li2CO3) spot price fall below $7,500 per tonne on April 1, 2026?

Mar 2, 6:09 PMApr 1, 6:08 PM

6.67%chance

4362

OptionVotes

YES

NO

382

33

Will JD Vance be impeached and removed during Trump's second term?

Nov 6, 7:55 PMJan 22, 7:59 AM

7.74%chance

5317

OptionVotes

YES

NO

345

29

Will the lithium carbonate (Li2CO3) spot price fall below $7,500 per tonne on May 1, 2026?

Mar 2, 6:10 PMMay 1, 6:08 PM

8.56%chance

4313

OptionVotes

YES

NO

329

38

Will the lithium carbonate (Li2CO3) spot price fall below $7,000 per tonne on May 1, 2026?

Mar 2, 6:10 PMMay 1, 6:08 PM

8.17%chance

4313

OptionVotes

YES

NO

339

37

Any of these 30 LLM-generated disasters happens in Europe through 2027

Sep 11, 4:24 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM

63.06%chance

8279

OptionVotes

YES

NO

105

103

Will lithium carbonate (Li2CO3) spot prices exceed $6,500/tonne on May 1, 2026?

Mar 2, 6:09 PMMay 1, 6:08 PM

90.57%chance

2210

OptionVotes

NO

YES

310

32

Will James Fishback get more than 9% of the vote in the 2026 Florida Gubernatorial GOP Primary?

Feb 10, 2:57 AMAug 25, 11:59 PM

56.06%chance

6168

OptionVotes

NO

YES

341

264

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