Articles of Association News
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Prediction markets for Articles of Association
By the end of 2028 will AI be able to write an original article and get it accepted in a prestigious Philosophy journal?
Mar 22, 5:09 AMDec 31, 12:59 PM
36.31%chance
5711924
OptionVotes
1395
643
Will there be a consensus that hypercomputation is possible by the end of 2050?
Jun 8, 10:05 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM
12.22%chance
203337
OptionVotes
2681
373
Will Warren Buffet family's yet-to-be-named ~$127B charitable trust donate to any Effective Altruist orgs prior to 2030?
Jul 2, 9:19 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM
34.79%chance
141630
OptionVotes
1809
1260
Will Jinbaobao's TTM tin production fall below 80 kt on May 31, 2026?
Mar 2, 9:07 PMMay 31, 9:06 PM
13.79%chance
11500
OptionVotes
2500
400
By Jan 2027, will AI independently run 3 successful companies that would've previously needed programmers?
Jun 16, 8:47 PMFeb 1, 4:59 AM
17.16%chance
221493
OptionVotes
1009
826
Will Jinbaobao's TTM tin production fall below 40 kt on May 31, 2026?
Mar 2, 9:06 PMMay 31, 9:06 PM
15.33%chance
11350
OptionVotes
2350
426
Will over 100,000 people live in the "City Built From Scratch" by "The Silicon Valley Elite" in Solano County in 2030?
Aug 25, 10:11 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
5.27%chance
18917
OptionVotes
1641
919
Will Scott Alexander be the subject of a public scandal within his social circle before 2030?
Nov 21, 3:35 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM
10%chance
28895
OptionVotes
1285
943
Do short sleeper genes exist, and do they accelerate repair proccesses?
Aug 10, 5:55 PMDec 18, 2:59 PM
59.88%chance
19407
OptionVotes
1081
928
Will large amounts of GTA VI-related time-off requests be reported within two weeks of release?
May 18, 3:55 AMMay 27, 3:51 AM
53.61%chance
7311
OptionVotes
1075
930
Will China's electrolytic cobalt output recover to 800 tonnes by March 2026?
Feb 10, 12:01 AMApr 11, 12:01 AM
16.99%chance
2288
OptionVotes
1023
882
Will stainless steel prices exceed 3500 yuan per tonne on May 1, 2026?
Mar 2, 9:06 PMMay 1, 9:05 PM
80%chance
1100
OptionVotes
200
50