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Prediction markets for Artifact

Did the Russians deliberately blow up the Nova Kakhovka dam? (Resolves NO if it was negligence rather than sabotage)

Jun 6, 8:56 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

64.9%chance

12137711

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2242

1989

Will there be evidence of extraterrestrial life presented by the end of the year 2028?

Dec 23, 6:26 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

7.96%chance

335643

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1486

908

Will Grok make a "really good movie" in 2027?

Oct 10, 2:58 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

9.74%chance

354986

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3045

328

Did the Russians intend to destroy the Nova Kakhovka dam? (Resolves NO if they intended a significantly lesser sabotage)

Jun 9, 4:17 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

53.62%chance

363583

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1021

954

Will there be evidence of extraterrestrial life presented by the end of the year 2040?

Dec 23, 7:50 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

30%chance

312388

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1032

951

Is the preprint suggesting Betelgeuse supernova within decades correct?

Jun 20, 12:28 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

8.7%chance

161969

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1919

765

Will there be evidence of extraterrestrial life presented by the end of the year 2030?

Dec 23, 6:30 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

8.9%chance

221691

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1424

916

Will the US Government make a show of declassifying everything on UFOs / UAPs before 2030

Jul 14, 8:55 PMDec 31, 4:59 PM

40.18%chance

281561

OptionVotes

NO

YES

991

983

Will there be evidence of extraterrestrial life presented by the end of the year 2050?

Dec 23, 7:52 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

45.41%chance

23962

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1143

762

What probability will I assign to the Bnei Menashe being a lost tribe of Israel in 6 months?

Nov 2, 9:15 AMMay 1, 9:14 AM

33.47%chance

2420

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2420

1704

Which Manifold Artifact will resell for the greatest amount in 2026?

Dec 7, 5:06 PMDec 31, 4:57 PM

2395

OptionProbability

One crane

[none]

Other

Tumbles' Trophy

Bottled Shame

Two cranes

Painting

Mr. Basil

Coal

17

13

13

12

12

11

9

9

5

Will the definitive function/purpose of the Roman Dodecahedron be identified before March 6th, 2035?

Mar 6, 5:20 PMMar 7, 6:59 AM

45.8%chance

5122

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1093

924

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