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Prediction markets for Artifact

Did the Russians deliberately blow up the Nova Kakhovka dam? (Resolves NO if it was negligence rather than sabotage)

Jun 6, 8:56 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

63.91%chance

12137769

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2274

1931

Did the Russians intend to destroy the Nova Kakhovka dam? (Resolves NO if they intended a significantly lesser sabotage)

Jun 9, 4:17 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

55.93%chance

394005

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1005

979

Will there be evidence of extraterrestrial life presented by the end of the year 2029?

Dec 23, 6:27 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

15.11%chance

293553

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1009

708

Will there be evidence of extraterrestrial life presented by the end of the year 2040?

Dec 23, 7:50 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

31.74%chance

322413

OptionVotes

NO

YES

976

976

Will there be evidence of extraterrestrial life presented by the end of the year 2026?

Dec 23, 6:20 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

7.3%chance

172125

OptionVotes

YES

NO

335

129

Will there be evidence of extraterrestrial life presented by the end of the year 2030?

Dec 23, 6:30 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

15.03%chance

262006

OptionVotes

NO

YES

990

851

Will the US Government make a show of declassifying everything on UFOs / UAPs before 2030

Jul 14, 8:55 PMDec 31, 4:59 PM

43.59%chance

311740

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1048

904

Will there be evidence of extraterrestrial life presented by the end of the year 2050?

Dec 23, 7:52 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

42.98%chance

241012

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1104

812

Which Manifold Artifact will resell for the greatest amount in 2026?

Dec 7, 5:06 PMDec 31, 4:57 PM

7529

OptionProbability

Other

One crane

kiwis

[none]

Two cranes

Tumbles' Trophy

Bottled Shame

Painting

Mr. Basil

Coal

15

14

13

11

10

10

9

7

7

4

What probability will I assign to the Bnei Menashe being a lost tribe of Israel in 6 months?

Nov 2, 9:15 AMMay 1, 9:14 AM

32.69%chance

3470

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2470

1679

Will the definitive function/purpose of the Roman Dodecahedron be identified before March 6th, 2035?

Mar 6, 5:20 PMMar 7, 6:59 AM

45.8%chance

5122

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1093

924

What will be true about TFT set 17? [ADD ANSWERS]

Jan 19, 6:45 PMApr 15, 11:59 PM

130

OptionProbability

At least 1 new artifact

Prismatic summon trait

11-piece trait

6- or 7- cost unit

Exactly 12 4-cost units

Charms-like set mechanic

Ziggs unit

Pandora's bench stays in this set as a gold augment

Threat-like unit

Guild/star guardian-like trait

3-cost hero augment

Unit reprint from set 16

72

59

50

50

50

50

50

50

50

50

50

34

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