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Prediction markets for Artifact

Did the Russians deliberately blow up the Nova Kakhovka dam? (Resolves NO if it was negligence rather than sabotage)

Jun 6, 8:56 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

64.08%chance

12237779

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2268

1941

Did the Russians intend to destroy the Nova Kakhovka dam? (Resolves NO if they intended a significantly lesser sabotage)

Jun 9, 4:17 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

56.15%chance

404010

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1010

975

Will there be evidence of extraterrestrial life presented by the end of the year 2029?

Dec 23, 6:27 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

15%chance

313847

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1008

714

Will there be evidence of extraterrestrial life presented by the end of the year 2026?

Dec 23, 6:20 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

6%chance

193051

OptionVotes

YES

NO

399

125

Will there be evidence of extraterrestrial life presented by the end of the year 2040?

Dec 23, 7:50 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

32.37%chance

332422

OptionVotes

NO

YES

985

957

Will the US Government make a show of declassifying everything on UFOs / UAPs before 2030

Jul 14, 8:55 PMDec 31, 4:59 PM

45%chance

362217

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1072

873

Which Manifold Artifact will resell for the greatest amount in 2026?

Dec 7, 5:06 PMDec 31, 4:57 PM

102041

OptionProbability

Other

One crane

kiwis

[none]

Two cranes

Bottled Shame

Painting

Mr. Basil

Coal

Tumbles' Trophy

16

15

14

12

11

9

8

8

5

3

Will there be evidence of extraterrestrial life presented by the end of the year 2030?

Dec 23, 6:30 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

15.03%chance

262006

OptionVotes

NO

YES

990

851

Will there be evidence of extraterrestrial life presented by the end of the year 2050?

Dec 23, 7:52 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

42.98%chance

241012

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1104

812

What will be found in the Big Void in the Great Pyramid of Giza?

Apr 27, 3:45 AMJan 2, 4:42 AM

13409

OptionProbability

Hieroglyphics (for example on walls, or on artefacts)

Nothing

Uncarved limestone blocks

Religious or ritual artifacts

Empty ceramic vessels

Organic material (seeds, wood, or textiles)

Burial goods or funerary objects

Papyri or inscribed scrolls

Tools left by ancient builders

A secondary inner chamber

A sarcophagus

Human remains or mummy fragments

Air/microbes/environment that makes someone in-person making the discovery ill.

80

77

66

57

54

54

50

50

41

41

34

23

23

Will the definitive function/purpose of the Roman Dodecahedron be identified before March 6th, 2035?

Mar 6, 5:20 PMMar 7, 6:59 AM

45.8%chance

5122

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1093

924

Will Anthropic's next AI R&D-4 determination resolve "not crossed, with hedge + voluntary artifacts"? (Motion 001 P1)

Jul 9, 4:55 PMDec 31, 3:59 PM

50%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

100

100

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