Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index News

Will Kimi K3 cause widespread societal chaos?

Jul 17, 11:39 AMDec 31, 12:34 PM

6.22%chance

4532469

OptionVotes

YES

3885

257

Will any model at least as good as Claude Fable 5 and 10x cheaper be released by the end of March 2027?

Aug 30, 6:29 PMMar 31, 11:59 PM

89.45%chance

265266

OptionVotes

YES

2912

343

Will any model at least as good as Claude Fable 5 and 10x cheaper be released by the end of 2026?

Aug 30, 6:46 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

73.21%chance

283763

OptionVotes

YES

1653

605

What is true of OpenAI's "spud" model?

Mar 25, 6:11 PMDec 31, 7:10 PM

422674

OptionProbability

It will be released by January 2027

It will be SOTA on Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index

It will be released by May 2026

It is GPT 5.5 (including any variations, as long as GPT 5.5 is in the name)

It will have a METR 50% of 20+ hours

It uses a novel architecture

It is an open source model

It is GPT 6

It will have a modality beyond text, image, and video

100

Will Qwen be the top small open model (4B-40B) on the Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index at the end of 2026?

Oct 1, 8:09 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

82.95%chance

72112

OptionVotes

YES

2206

453

Will an Open Weights Model be #1 on the Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index in 2026

Aug 16, 9:37 PMDec 31, 11:00 PM

10.24%chance

13402

OptionVotes

YES

412

Where will Gemini 4 Pro score on the Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index vs the leading model prior to its inclusion?

Sep 30, 2:21 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

5264

OptionProbability

Gemini 4 Pro 5-8 points worse

Gemini 4 Pro 0-4 points worse

Gemini 4 Pro ≥9 points worse

Gemini 4 Pro scores higher than the prior leading model

Will any AI model score 60+ on the Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index by November 20, 2026?

Oct 23, 12:01 PMNov 20, 11:59 PM

85.65%chance

6151

OptionVotes

YES

220

2027 Frontier AI Lab props

Oct 13, 2:43 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

110

OptionProbability

Will any single AI lab hold the #1 position on the Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index for at least 70 consecutive days during 2027?

Will Anthropic's Q4 2027 GAAP revenue exceed OpenAI's by >20%?

Will Anthropic or OpenAI report positive GAAP operating income in any quarter of 2027?

Will a lab other than OpenAI or Anthropic lead the Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index for 30 consecutive days in 2027?

What will qwen 4 27b score on artificial analysis intelligence index v5.0

Nov 3, 2:20 AMDec 2, 11:59 PM

OptionProbability

21~23

24~26

27~29

30+

Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index News

Prediction markets for Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index

Prediction markets for Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index

Prediction markets for Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index

Will Kimi K3 cause widespread societal chaos?

Will any model at least as good as Claude Fable 5 and 10x cheaper be released by the end of March 2027?

Will any model at least as good as Claude Fable 5 and 10x cheaper be released by the end of 2026?

What is true of OpenAI's "spud" model?

Will Qwen be the top small open model (4B-40B) on the Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index at the end of 2026?

Will an Open Weights Model be #1 on the Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index in 2026

Where will Gemini 4 Pro score on the Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index vs the leading model prior to its inclusion?

Will any AI model score 60+ on the Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index by November 20, 2026?

2027 Frontier AI Lab props

What will qwen 4 27b score on artificial analysis intelligence index v5.0

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