OptionProbability
Grok 4.6 is released by August 31, 2026
Elon Musk publicly calls for pausing advanced AI development or joins a major AI safety treaty by December 31, 2026
Neuralink implants surpass 1,000 humans by December 31, 2026
Starship V3 reaches orbit by May 1, 2026
Grok Imagine #1 on Artificial Analysis video leaderboard end of March
Optimus Gen 3 revealed by June 30, 2026
xAI releases Grok 4.5 or Grok 5 by March 14, 2026
Elon Musk visits China by March 14, 2026
Elon Musk visits India by March 14, 2026
Elon Musk visits Norway by March 13, 2026
Starship V3 reaches orbit by March 13, 2026
Grok 4.2 reaches No.1 on LMArena Text leaderboard by March 13, 2026
Optimus Gen 3 available for public purchase before March 13, 2026
Cybercab available for public purchase before March 13 2026
100
18
6
0
Google
Anthropic
OpenAI
DeepSeek
Meta
xAI
Moonshot AI
Z.ai
Other
Mistral AI
Alibaba
MiniMax
46
30
19
1
OptionVotes
YES
NO
412
72
Gemini 4 Pro 5-8 points worse
Gemini 4 Pro 0-4 points worse
Gemini 4 Pro ≥9 points worse
Gemini 4 Pro scores higher than the prior leading model
91
3
2
147
68