Artificial Analysis Leaderboard News

Will the top Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index score reach 65 or higher on September 30, 2026?

Aug 27, 11:26 AMSep 30, 11:59 PM

98.62%chance

3622730

OptionVotes

YES

8513

118

Elon Musk (props)

Mar 7, 12:23 PMMar 7, 12:23 PM

3915129

OptionProbability

Grok 4.6 is released by August 31, 2026

Elon Musk publicly calls for pausing advanced AI development or joins a major AI safety treaty by December 31, 2026

Neuralink implants surpass 1,000 humans by December 31, 2026

Starship V3 reaches orbit by May 1, 2026

Grok Imagine #1 on Artificial Analysis video leaderboard end of March

Optimus Gen 3 revealed by June 30, 2026

xAI releases Grok 4.5 or Grok 5 by March 14, 2026

Elon Musk visits China by March 14, 2026

Elon Musk visits India by March 14, 2026

Elon Musk visits Norway by March 13, 2026

Starship V3 reaches orbit by March 13, 2026

Grok 4.2 reaches No.1 on LMArena Text leaderboard by March 13, 2026

Optimus Gen 3 available for public purchase before March 13, 2026

Cybercab available for public purchase before March 13 2026

100

OpenAI Astra Prop Bets

Sep 3, 1:54 AMOct 2, 10:59 PM

364523

OptionProbability

Costs at least $50 per million output tokens on release

Scores at least 40% on Terminal Bench Science

Scores at least 55% on Terminal Bench 4

It performs worse than GPT-5.6 Sol on at least one benchmark OpenAI reports in their release blog post or system card

Resolves a FrontierMath Open Problems "Solid Result" or Higher Within One Month of Release

OpenAI claims it is AGI within one week of release

Scores at least 67 on Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index

Scores at least 50% on Gene Bench Pro

Scores at least 80% on DeepSWE

Scores at least 60% on Exploit Gym

100

Which company's model will be #1 on Artificial Analysis at the end of September 2026

Aug 26, 4:48 PMSep 30, 11:59 PM

171681

OptionProbability

Anthropic

OpenAI

Google

Which company has the best LLM at the end of 2026? (Artificial analysis leaderboard)

Jan 5, 8:15 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

241117

OptionProbability

Anthropic

OpenAI

Moonshot AI

Google

Other

DeepSeek

xAI

Will an Open Weights Model be #1 on the Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index in 2026

Aug 16, 9:37 PMDec 31, 11:00 PM

22%chance

10261

OptionVotes

YES

188

Open "Nano Banana Pro"‑Level Model on a Gaming GPU by 2028?

Nov 23, 4:52 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

68.3%chance

485

OptionVotes

YES

147

Artificial Analysis Leaderboard News

Prediction markets for Artificial Analysis Leaderboard

Prediction markets for Artificial Analysis Leaderboard

Prediction markets for Artificial Analysis Leaderboard

Will the top Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index score reach 65 or higher on September 30, 2026?

Elon Musk (props)

OpenAI Astra Prop Bets

Which company's model will be #1 on Artificial Analysis at the end of September 2026

Which company has the best LLM at the end of 2026? (Artificial analysis leaderboard)

Will an Open Weights Model be #1 on the Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index in 2026

Open "Nano Banana Pro"‑Level Model on a Gaming GPU by 2028?

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