Artificial Analysis News

Nvidia Unveils 9-Billion-Parameter Nemotron Nano Model With 6× Speed Boost

1 year ago

Will we have near-complete automation of the world economy before 2035?

Aug 7, 6:58 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

23.8%chance

8838615

OptionVotes

YES

1020

841

Will the top Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index score reach 65 or higher on September 30, 2026?

Aug 27, 11:26 AMSep 30, 11:59 PM

98.62%chance

3622730

OptionVotes

YES

8513

118

Elon Musk (props)

Mar 7, 12:23 PMMar 7, 12:23 PM

3915129

OptionProbability

Grok 4.6 is released by August 31, 2026

Elon Musk publicly calls for pausing advanced AI development or joins a major AI safety treaty by December 31, 2026

Neuralink implants surpass 1,000 humans by December 31, 2026

Starship V3 reaches orbit by May 1, 2026

Grok Imagine #1 on Artificial Analysis video leaderboard end of March

Optimus Gen 3 revealed by June 30, 2026

xAI releases Grok 4.5 or Grok 5 by March 14, 2026

Elon Musk visits China by March 14, 2026

Elon Musk visits India by March 14, 2026

Elon Musk visits Norway by March 13, 2026

Starship V3 reaches orbit by March 13, 2026

Grok 4.2 reaches No.1 on LMArena Text leaderboard by March 13, 2026

Optimus Gen 3 available for public purchase before March 13, 2026

Cybercab available for public purchase before March 13 2026

100

OpenAI reaches $100B revenue in 2028?

Oct 15, 10:20 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

80%chance

399880

OptionVotes

YES

2003

501

OpenAI Astra Prop Bets

Sep 3, 1:54 AMOct 2, 10:59 PM

354308

OptionProbability

Costs at least $50 per million output tokens on release

Scores at least 40% on Terminal Bench Science

Scores at least 55% on Terminal Bench 4

It performs worse than GPT-5.6 Sol on at least one benchmark OpenAI reports in their release blog post or system card

OpenAI claims it is AGI within one week of release

Resolves a FrontierMath Open Problems "Solid Result" or Higher Within One Month of Release

Scores at least 67 on Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index

Scores at least 50% on Gene Bench Pro

Scores at least 80% on DeepSWE

Scores at least 60% on Exploit Gym

100

What is true of OpenAI's "spud" model?

Mar 25, 6:11 PMDec 31, 7:10 PM

422674

OptionProbability

It will be released by January 2027

It will be SOTA on Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index

It will be released by May 2026

It is GPT 5.5 (including any variations, as long as GPT 5.5 is in the name)

It will have a METR 50% of 20+ hours

It uses a novel architecture

It is an open source model

It is GPT 6

It will have a modality beyond text, image, and video

100

Which company's model will be #1 on Artificial Analysis at the end of September 2026

Aug 26, 4:48 PMSep 30, 11:59 PM

171681

OptionProbability

Anthropic

OpenAI

Google

Which company has the best LLM at the end of 2026? (Artificial analysis leaderboard)

Jan 5, 8:15 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

241117

OptionProbability

Anthropic

OpenAI

Moonshot AI

Google

Other

DeepSeek

xAI

Will the top Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index score reach 55 or higher on September 30, 2026?

Sep 15, 4:40 PMSep 30, 11:59 PM

97.41%chance

5635

OptionVotes

YES

613

Will an Open Weights Model be #1 on the Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index in 2026

Aug 16, 9:37 PMDec 31, 11:00 PM

22%chance

10261

OptionVotes

YES

188

Will xAI be #1 on Artificial Analysis Index by EOY 2026?

Aug 12, 6:24 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

17.52%chance

12172

OptionVotes

YES

217

Open Weights text-to-image model with Elo ≥ 1200 on Artificial Analysis by EOY 2026?

Apr 17, 7:24 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

85%chance

458

OptionVotes

YES

126

Artificial Analysis News

Top stories

Prediction markets for Artificial Analysis

Prediction markets for Artificial Analysis

Prediction markets for Artificial Analysis

Will we have near-complete automation of the world economy before 2035?

Will the top Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index score reach 65 or higher on September 30, 2026?

Elon Musk (props)

OpenAI reaches $100B revenue in 2028?

OpenAI Astra Prop Bets

What is true of OpenAI's "spud" model?

Which company's model will be #1 on Artificial Analysis at the end of September 2026

Which company has the best LLM at the end of 2026? (Artificial analysis leaderboard)

Will the top Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index score reach 55 or higher on September 30, 2026?

Will an Open Weights Model be #1 on the Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index in 2026

Will xAI be #1 on Artificial Analysis Index by EOY 2026?

Open Weights text-to-image model with Elo ≥ 1200 on Artificial Analysis by EOY 2026?

Latest stories