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Prediction markets for Artificial Intelligence Act

What is going on with David Grusch's UFO claims?

Sep 18, 12:45 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

12877023

OptionProbability

Multiple counts of perjury

Massive fraud

Advanced human technology

Non-human intelligence

33

31

26

10

In what specific year will we hit AGI?

Mar 12, 9:42 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

417324

2030 – 3. Over one hundred thousand humanoid robots will be deployed in the real world.

Mar 11, 12:08 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

82.06%chance

372697

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1928

630

10. The first real AI safety incident will occur.

Dec 27, 8:26 AMJan 3, 10:59 PM

49.59%chance

171736

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1008

992

Will a machine/ai uprising occur by 2044?

May 11, 11:04 AMJun 10, 8:59 PM

20.3%chance

271192

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1074

957

Which positive news will make 2025 world-wide headlines?

Jan 4, 4:58 PMJan 11, 10:59 PM

11879

OptionProbability

Space Exploration

Technology

Medical/Healthcare

Fundamental research

Geopolitics

Environment and sustainability

Disaster Relief / Humanitarian Aid

Society

Art and culture

Human Rights

Economy

79

73

67

65

65

59

50

50

45

45

35

Conditional on California SB 1047 law, will an AI cause $500 million in damage by end of 2026?

Aug 9, 4:49 PMDec 30, 7:59 AM

6570

OptionProbability

SB 1047 does not pass and no

SB 1047 does not pass and yes

SB 1047 passes and yes

SB 1047 passes and no

67

31

1

1

If safe-ish ASI is created, will it be able to hack human minds within a year?

Sep 3, 1:24 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

35.3%chance

6384

OptionVotes

YES

NO

135

74

New York State RAISE Act becomes law?

Jun 24, 3:01 AMJan 2, 4:01 AM

56.53%chance

5150

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1140

877

Chip Security Act becomes law in 2025

May 16, 10:07 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

64.51%chance

366

OptionVotes

NO

YES

135

74

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