Artificial Superintelligence News

Will artificial superintelligence exist by 2030? [resolves N/A in 2027]

Jul 28, 5:52 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

30.39%chance

340104594

OptionVotes

YES

5080

3679

Will we get ASI before 2032?

Dec 24, 12:13 AMMar 1, 10:59 PM

24.64%chance

7020736

OptionVotes

YES

1308

858

Will Artificial Superintelligence be developed in the USA while Donald Trump is president?

Jan 29, 8:41 PMJan 21, 10:59 PM

17.33%chance

444355

OptionVotes

YES

2184

458

IF artificial superintelligence exists by 2030, will AI wipe out humanity by 2030? [resolves N/A in 2027]

Jul 31, 11:41 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

38%chance

583172

OptionVotes

YES

971

913

Will Eliezer Yudkowsky associate the UFO phenomenon with AI 1 year after losing his UFO bet? (PROB 50 if he wins)

Jan 18, 8:28 PMFeb 18, 3:59 AM

47.89%chance

71730

OptionVotes

YES

495

288

Who will lead Russia after Vladimir Putin leaves power?

May 3, 2:09 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

16756

OptionProbability

Other

Mikhail Mishustin

Ivan Melnikov

Dmitry Patrushev

Dmitry Medvedev

Sergey Kiriyenko

Nikolai Patrushev

An artificial superintelligence (may or may not control rest of Earth too)

Alexei Dyumin

Sergei Sobyanin

Will Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) lead directly to the development of Artificial Superintelligence (ASI)?

Jan 7, 3:16 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

68.1%chance

13218

OptionVotes

YES

216

139

What will cause civilization to end?

Dec 16, 12:03 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

11215

OptionProbability

Other

Solar Flare or other space energy event

Supervolcano / Eruption that darkens the sky for more than 2 years.

Artificial Superintelligence

Aftermath of an asteroid collision with earth

Nuclear War

Global Pandemic

Who is the antichrist?

Aug 21, 1:45 PMJan 1, 2:40 PM

14215

OptionProbability

Sam Altman

Peter Thiel

the antichrist

Any political or economic abstraction, such as "the state" or "capitalism"

Other

Donald Trump

The emperor Nero

Artificial superintelligence (any)

Elon Musk

Anyone who denies the Father and the Son (1 John 2:22)

The Pope (any)

Aleister Crowley

proto-gnostics in ancient Ephesus

Mark Zuckerberg

My vegetarian friend who only eats meat once a year on Good Friday

Which of the following will Gen Z see in their lifetime?

Feb 4, 12:51 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

10144

OptionProbability

Humans on Mars

Operational Fusion Power Plants

Superintelligent Artificial General Intelligence

Will the first artificial superintelligence (ASI) be a large language model (LLM)?

Apr 5, 1:09 PMDec 30, 11:59 PM

44%chance

1284

OptionVotes

YES

113

Change my view: artificial superintelligence is not as serious of a risk as Eliezer Yudkowsky claims it to be.

May 17, 3:55 PMJun 30, 3:45 PM

37.02%chance

260

OptionVotes

YES

130

Artificial Superintelligence News

Prediction markets for Artificial Superintelligence

Prediction markets for Artificial Superintelligence

Prediction markets for Artificial Superintelligence

Will artificial superintelligence exist by 2030? [resolves N/A in 2027]

Will we get ASI before 2032?

Will Artificial Superintelligence be developed in the USA while Donald Trump is president?

IF artificial superintelligence exists by 2030, will AI wipe out humanity by 2030? [resolves N/A in 2027]

Will Eliezer Yudkowsky associate the UFO phenomenon with AI 1 year after losing his UFO bet? (PROB 50 if he wins)

Who will lead Russia after Vladimir Putin leaves power?

Will Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) lead directly to the development of Artificial Superintelligence (ASI)?

What will cause civilization to end?

Who is the antichrist?

Which of the following will Gen Z see in their lifetime?

Will the first artificial superintelligence (ASI) be a large language model (LLM)?

Change my view: artificial superintelligence is not as serious of a risk as Eliezer Yudkowsky claims it to be.

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