Artificial Superintelligence News

Will we get ASI before 2030?

Dec 20, 12:57 PMMar 1, 10:59 PM

23.15%chance

112127771

OptionVotes

YES

1000

965

Will artificial superintelligence exist by 2030? [resolves N/A in 2027]

Jul 28, 5:52 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

37.56%chance

350107942

OptionVotes

YES

4159

4150

Will Artificial Superintelligence be developed in the USA while Donald Trump is president?

Jan 29, 8:41 PMJan 21, 10:59 PM

18.27%chance

464470

OptionVotes

YES

2115

473

IF artificial superintelligence exists by 2030, will AI wipe out humanity by 2030? [resolves N/A in 2027]

Jul 31, 11:41 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

36.04%chance

593222

OptionVotes

YES

963

942

Will Eliezer Yudkowsky associate the UFO phenomenon with AI 1 year after losing his UFO bet? (PROB 50 if he wins)

Jan 18, 8:28 PMFeb 18, 3:59 AM

50%chance

92240

OptionVotes

YES

479

304

Who will lead Russia after Vladimir Putin leaves power?

May 3, 2:09 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

16756

OptionProbability

Other

Mikhail Mishustin

Ivan Melnikov

Dmitry Patrushev

Dmitry Medvedev

Sergey Kiriyenko

Nikolai Patrushev

An artificial superintelligence (may or may not control rest of Earth too)

Alexei Dyumin

Sergei Sobyanin

Will Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) lead directly to the development of Artificial Superintelligence (ASI)?

Jan 7, 3:16 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

75.37%chance

14268

OptionVotes

YES

266

119

What will cause civilization to end?

Dec 16, 12:03 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

11215

OptionProbability

Other

Solar Flare or other space energy event

Supervolcano / Eruption that darkens the sky for more than 2 years.

Artificial Superintelligence

Aftermath of an asteroid collision with earth

Nuclear War

Global Pandemic

Who is the antichrist?

Aug 21, 1:45 PMJan 1, 2:40 PM

14215

OptionProbability

Sam Altman

Peter Thiel

the antichrist

Any political or economic abstraction, such as "the state" or "capitalism"

Other

Donald Trump

The emperor Nero

Artificial superintelligence (any)

Elon Musk

Anyone who denies the Father and the Son (1 John 2:22)

The Pope (any)

Aleister Crowley

proto-gnostics in ancient Ephesus

Mark Zuckerberg

My vegetarian friend who only eats meat once a year on Good Friday

Which of the following will Gen Z see in their lifetime?

Feb 4, 12:51 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

10144

OptionProbability

Humans on Mars

Operational Fusion Power Plants

Superintelligent Artificial General Intelligence

Will the first artificial superintelligence (ASI) be a large language model (LLM)?

Apr 5, 1:09 PMDec 30, 11:59 PM

44%chance

1284

OptionVotes

YES

113

If Tetra draws a shoggoth about this paper or post, will it get >3K views in 24 hours?

Oct 7, 10:00 PMJan 1, 10:49 PM

380

OptionProbability

FutureLivingLab, iFlow ROME, Safety-Aligned Data Composition https://huggingface.co/papers/2512.24873

MIRI, "How could an LLM destroy humanity?" short https://youtube.com/shorts/Z6oPeFvp6_s

MIRI, An International Agreement to Prevent the Premature Creation of Artificial Superintelligence, Notes on Article VI https://arxiv.org/abs/2511.10783

Epoch AI, How many AI agents could run on the AI chips shipped through 2027? https://epoch.ai/publications/estimating-the-agent-population

Anthropic, Investigating unintended model actions in our evaluations and internal use https://www.anthropic.com/news/investigating-unintended-model-actions

Kirgis & Hua, The Continual Constitutional Convention: How language models revise the documents that govern them https://www.alignmentforum.org/posts/c9woewdY9ddsPqf3J/the-continual-constitutional-convention-how-language-models

Anthropic, Rosu & Wang, Training Alignment Auditors via Reinforcement Learning https://alignment.anthropic.com/2026/training-alignment-auditors/

100

Artificial Superintelligence News

Prediction markets for Artificial Superintelligence

Prediction markets for Artificial Superintelligence

Prediction markets for Artificial Superintelligence

Will we get ASI before 2030?

Will artificial superintelligence exist by 2030? [resolves N/A in 2027]

Will Artificial Superintelligence be developed in the USA while Donald Trump is president?

IF artificial superintelligence exists by 2030, will AI wipe out humanity by 2030? [resolves N/A in 2027]

Will Eliezer Yudkowsky associate the UFO phenomenon with AI 1 year after losing his UFO bet? (PROB 50 if he wins)

Who will lead Russia after Vladimir Putin leaves power?

Will Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) lead directly to the development of Artificial Superintelligence (ASI)?

What will cause civilization to end?

Who is the antichrist?

Which of the following will Gen Z see in their lifetime?

Will the first artificial superintelligence (ASI) be a large language model (LLM)?

If Tetra draws a shoggoth about this paper or post, will it get >3K views in 24 hours?

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