Ascent News

Will Tianwen-3 launch before 2030?

Sep 23, 12:15 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

60%chance

189844

OptionVotes

YES

1222

116

Which of these will I achieve during the 2025-2026 school year (by July 31, 2026)?

Jul 31, 11:37 PMJul 31, 11:59 PM

373169

OptionProbability

I qualify for TST 2026-2027

I qualify for Blue/Black MOP 2026

I beat Artificial Ascent in Geometry Dash by July 31, 2026

I have at least 25 32768s total in 2048 by July 31, 2026

I beat my high score in 2048 by July 31, 2026

I get a gold medal on the 2026 USAMO

I solve at least one problem with <10 solves on any test involved in USA IMO 2026 selection

I have a girlfriend on July 31, 2026

I qualify for IMO 2026

I qualify for RMM 2026

Will Falcon boosters have a longer run of sucessful landings than 267?

Aug 31, 9:46 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

51.98%chance

91530

OptionVotes

YES

1040

961

When will the first Mars samples be returned to Earth?

Jul 27, 5:46 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

17.05%chance

181129

OptionProbability

YES

1527

849

Will Alex Honnold ever stop doing free-solo ascents?

Jan 22, 12:54 AMJan 22, 4:59 AM

65.83%chance

24897

OptionVotes

YES

1629

1089

Will a laser lift a payload to space before 2050?

Dec 17, 2:58 PMMar 1, 10:59 PM

53.47%chance

11475

OptionVotes

YES

212

162

Will a laser lift a payload to space before 2035?

Dec 21, 10:33 PMMar 1, 10:59 PM

15%chance

13441

OptionVotes

YES

439

241

Will the second ascentionist of Seb Bouin's DNA agree with the 9c grade?

Apr 14, 9:15 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

60.33%chance

9170

OptionVotes

YES

281

243

Will Liu Zhenli be expelled from the Chinese Communist Party before 2028?

Jan 21, 4:12 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

71.65%chance

7135

OptionVotes

YES

159

Will Tianwen-3 successfully return a sample from Mars?

Sep 23, 12:16 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

45.83%chance

560

OptionVotes

YES

111

107

Will I beat Artificial Ascent by the end of 2026 (Geometry Dash)

Sep 10, 5:36 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

36.6%chance

558

OptionVotes

YES

139

What will the second ascensionist of Blackflip Sit grade it?

Apr 13, 8:13 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

120

OptionProbability

V16 or lower (8C+ or lower)

V16/17 (8C+/9A)

V17 or higher (9A or higher)

No specific grade

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Prediction markets for Ascent

Prediction markets for Ascent

Will Tianwen-3 launch before 2030?

Which of these will I achieve during the 2025-2026 school year (by July 31, 2026)?

Will Falcon boosters have a longer run of sucessful landings than 267?

When will the first Mars samples be returned to Earth?

Will Alex Honnold ever stop doing free-solo ascents?

Will a laser lift a payload to space before 2050?

Will a laser lift a payload to space before 2035?

Will the second ascentionist of Seb Bouin's DNA agree with the 9c grade?

Will Liu Zhenli be expelled from the Chinese Communist Party before 2028?

Will Tianwen-3 successfully return a sample from Mars?

Will I beat Artificial Ascent by the end of 2026 (Geometry Dash)

What will the second ascensionist of Blackflip Sit grade it?

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