Ascent News

Which of these will I achieve during the 2025-2026 school year (by July 31, 2026)?

Jul 31, 11:37 PMJul 31, 11:59 PM

6011766

OptionProbability

I qualify for Blue/Black MOP 2026

I solve at least one problem with <10 solves on any test involved in USA IMO 2026 selection

I qualify for TST 2026-2027

I get a gold medal on the 2026 USAMO

I beat Artificial Ascent in Geometry Dash by July 31, 2026

I beat my high score in 2048 by July 31, 2026

I have at least 25 32768s total in 2048 by July 31, 2026

I have a girlfriend on July 31, 2026

I qualify for RMM 2026

I qualify for IMO 2026

100

Will Tianwen-3 launch before 2030?

Sep 23, 12:15 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

60%chance

189844

OptionVotes

YES

1222

116

Will Falcon boosters have a longer run of sucessful landings than 267?

Aug 31, 9:46 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

67.79%chance

121971

OptionVotes

YES

1451

689

When will the first Mars samples be returned to Earth?

Jul 27, 5:46 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

17.05%chance

181129

OptionProbability

YES

1527

849

Will Alex Honnold ever stop doing free-solo ascents?

Jan 22, 12:54 AMJan 22, 4:59 AM

65.83%chance

24897

OptionVotes

YES

1229

689

Will a laser lift a payload to space before 2050?

Dec 17, 2:58 PMMar 1, 10:59 PM

53.47%chance

11475

OptionVotes

YES

212

162

Will a laser lift a payload to space before 2045?

Dec 19, 1:42 PMMar 3, 10:59 PM

47.15%chance

7398

OptionVotes

YES

180

143

Will I beat Artificial Ascent by the end of 2026 (Geometry Dash)

Sep 10, 5:36 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

54.68%chance

12175

OptionVotes

YES

123

Will the second ascentionist of Seb Bouin's DNA agree with the 9c grade?

Apr 14, 9:15 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

60.33%chance

9170

OptionVotes

YES

281

243

Will Tianwen-3 successfully return a sample from Mars?

Sep 23, 12:16 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

35%chance

6110

OptionVotes

YES

138

What will the second ascensionist of Blackflip Sit grade it?

Apr 13, 8:13 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

140

OptionProbability

V16/17 (8C+/9A)

V17 or higher (9A or higher)

V16 or lower (8C+ or lower)

No specific grade

Will the second ascentionist of Elias Iagnemma's Exodia agree with the V18 (9A+) grade?

May 31, 7:09 AMMay 31, 7:06 AM

50.25%chance

OptionVotes

YES

1005

995

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Which of these will I achieve during the 2025-2026 school year (by July 31, 2026)?

Will Tianwen-3 launch before 2030?

Will Falcon boosters have a longer run of sucessful landings than 267?

When will the first Mars samples be returned to Earth?

Will Alex Honnold ever stop doing free-solo ascents?

Will a laser lift a payload to space before 2050?

Will a laser lift a payload to space before 2045?

Will I beat Artificial Ascent by the end of 2026 (Geometry Dash)

Will the second ascentionist of Seb Bouin's DNA agree with the 9c grade?

Will Tianwen-3 successfully return a sample from Mars?

What will the second ascensionist of Blackflip Sit grade it?

Will the second ascentionist of Elias Iagnemma's Exodia agree with the V18 (9A+) grade?

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