Ascent News

Will Tianwen-3 launch before 2030?

Sep 23, 12:15 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

60%chance

189844

OptionVotes

YES

1222

116

Which of these will I achieve during the 2025-2026 school year (by July 31, 2026)?

Jul 31, 11:37 PMJul 31, 11:59 PM

475757

OptionProbability

I qualify for TST 2026-2027

I qualify for Blue/Black MOP 2026

I beat Artificial Ascent in Geometry Dash by July 31, 2026

I have at least 25 32768s total in 2048 by July 31, 2026

I beat my high score in 2048 by July 31, 2026

I get a gold medal on the 2026 USAMO

I solve at least one problem with <10 solves on any test involved in USA IMO 2026 selection

I have a girlfriend on July 31, 2026

I qualify for IMO 2026

I qualify for RMM 2026

Will Falcon boosters have a longer run of sucessful landings than 267?

Aug 31, 9:46 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

51.98%chance

91530

OptionVotes

YES

1040

961

When will the first Mars samples be returned to Earth?

Jul 27, 5:46 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

17.05%chance

181129

OptionProbability

YES

1527

849

Will Alex Honnold ever stop doing free-solo ascents?

Jan 22, 12:54 AMJan 22, 4:59 AM

65.83%chance

24897

OptionVotes

YES

1629

1089

Will a laser lift a payload to space before 2045?

Dec 19, 1:42 PMMar 3, 10:59 PM

47.15%chance

7398

OptionVotes

YES

180

143

How many pages will the fifth volume of Robert Caro's "The Years of Lyndon Johnson" have?

Feb 27, 2:56 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

6320

OptionProbability

Above 300

Above 600

Above 900

Above 1200

Above 1500

Above 2000

Above 2500

Will the second ascentionist of Seb Bouin's DNA agree with the 9c grade?

Apr 14, 9:15 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

60.33%chance

9170

OptionVotes

YES

281

243

Will Liu Zhenli be expelled from the Chinese Communist Party before 2028?

Jan 21, 4:12 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

71.65%chance

7135

OptionVotes

YES

159

Will I beat Artificial Ascent by the end of 2026 (Geometry Dash)

Sep 10, 5:36 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

34%chance

784

OptionVotes

YES

148

Will Tianwen-3 successfully return a sample from Mars?

Sep 23, 12:16 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

45.83%chance

560

OptionVotes

YES

111

107

What will the second ascensionist of Blackflip Sit grade it?

Apr 13, 8:13 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

140

OptionProbability

V16/17 (8C+/9A)

V17 or higher (9A or higher)

V16 or lower (8C+ or lower)

No specific grade

Ascent News

Prediction markets for Ascent

Prediction markets for Ascent

Prediction markets for Ascent

Will Tianwen-3 launch before 2030?

Which of these will I achieve during the 2025-2026 school year (by July 31, 2026)?

Will Falcon boosters have a longer run of sucessful landings than 267?

When will the first Mars samples be returned to Earth?

Will Alex Honnold ever stop doing free-solo ascents?

Will a laser lift a payload to space before 2045?

How many pages will the fifth volume of Robert Caro's "The Years of Lyndon Johnson" have?

Will the second ascentionist of Seb Bouin's DNA agree with the 9c grade?

Will Liu Zhenli be expelled from the Chinese Communist Party before 2028?

Will I beat Artificial Ascent by the end of 2026 (Geometry Dash)

Will Tianwen-3 successfully return a sample from Mars?

What will the second ascensionist of Blackflip Sit grade it?

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