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Prediction markets for Ask China

Will Xi Jinping continue to lead China through end of 2028?

Oct 24, 1:01 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

81.12%chance

9715447

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2021

700

Will Ice Cream turn out to actually be "healthy" based on consensus view at EOY 2026?

Nov 11, 7:11 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

7.26%chance

2112589

OptionVotes

YES

NO

14072

3617

Will South Korea withdraw from the NPT by 2026?

Apr 22, 4:33 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

3.04%chance

213320

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3203

822

3. China’s AI chip sector make significant strides, planting seeds for eventual decline on Nvidia [See full title!]

Dec 28, 11:24 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

74.92%chance

13960

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1731

580

Will the US concede Taiwan to the PRC before 2030?

Mar 1, 4:06 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

22.59%chance

12744

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1031

884

Will the US Supreme Court issue a preliminary or permanent injunction halting Tariffs on China?

Apr 6, 8:28 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

17.76%chance

14236

OptionVotes

YES

NO

215

46

Does being smart and innovative require that AIs can never truly, deeply conform to social rules? [In development still]

Dec 22, 8:25 AMJan 2, 6:59 AM

65.02%chance

9125

OptionVotes

NO

YES

194

119

Will the US Appeals Court issue a preliminary or permanent injunction halting Tariffs on China?

Apr 6, 8:41 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

20%chance

8100

OptionVotes

YES

NO

200

50

Will a sample from the Martian system be returned to Earth by an Asian space agency before a Western space agency?

Jun 19, 8:47 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

34.2%chance

481

OptionVotes

YES

NO

155

27

Which China pundits may eventually be found to be assets of the CCP?

Jan 16, 9:41 PMJul 1, 6:59 AM

570

OptionProbability

Jeffrey Sachs

Huey Li (and the news)

SerpentZA

Laowhy86

Nicholas Kristof

Michael Pettis

Peter Hessler

James Fallows

Kevin D Walmsley of Inside China Business

Liziqi

Nathan Rich

Living in China

Jerry Kowal

Significant effort (10k+ posts) to manipulate comment threads on hacker news.

Asia Society Policy Institute

Yale Center Beijing

Brookings Institution (China Center)

Blondie in China

Elon Musk

Bill Bishop, Sinocism

52

50

50

50

50

50

50

50

50

50

50

50

50

50

50

50

50

50

41

40

Will Pangdonglai announce plans to build supermarkets outside of Xuchang before 2030?

Dec 8, 11:31 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

67.57%chance

228

OptionVotes

NO

YES

92

55

Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2027? (Tumbles Judgement)

Jun 19, 10:32 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

10.47%chance

414

OptionVotes

NO

YES

101

95

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