Ask China News

Will Xi Jinping continue to lead China through end of 2028?

Oct 24, 1:01 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

62.19%chance

8313455

OptionVotes

YES

1138

1029

Will Ice Cream turn out to actually be "healthy" based on consensus view at EOY 2026?

Nov 11, 7:11 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

6.5%chance

2010838

OptionVotes

YES

15423

3517

Will South Korea withdraw from the NPT by 2026?

Apr 22, 4:33 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

9.73%chance

181092

OptionVotes

YES

1064

940

3. China’s AI chip sector make significant strides, planting seeds for eventual decline on Nvidia [See full title!]

Dec 28, 11:24 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

65.32%chance

10603

OptionVotes

YES

1375

730

Will the US concede Taiwan to the PRC before 2030?

Mar 1, 4:06 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

25.32%chance

10544

OptionVotes

YES

1063

784

Will Lewis Hamilton win a Formula 1 Grand Prix while driving for Ferrari?

Apr 28, 2:33 PMDec 30, 11:59 PM

74.37%chance

8126

OptionVotes

YES

170

Does being smart and innovative require that AIs can never truly, deeply conform to social rules? [In development still]

Dec 22, 8:25 AMJan 2, 6:59 AM

65.02%chance

9125

OptionVotes

YES

194

119

Xi Fourth Term - Taiwan Invasion (before 2033) Matrix

Jul 8, 2:27 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

5107

OptionProbability

Xi secures fourth term, China doesn't invade Taiwan

Xi secures fourth term, China invades Taiwan

Xi doesn't secure fourth term, China invades Taiwan

Xi doesn't secure fourth term, China doesn't invade Taiwan

Taiwan 2028 Long Range Market: Will the DPP run on a platform to maintain the status quo in Cross-Strait Relations?

Jan 14, 5:04 AMJan 1, 3:59 PM

75.04%chance

3106

OptionVotes

YES

138

Which China pundits may eventually be found to be assets of the CCP?

Jan 16, 9:41 PMJul 1, 6:59 AM

570

OptionProbability

Jeffrey Sachs

Huey Li (and the news)

SerpentZA

Laowhy86

Nicholas Kristof

Michael Pettis

Peter Hessler

James Fallows

Kevin D Walmsley of Inside China Business

Liziqi

Nathan Rich

Living in China

Jerry Kowal

Significant effort (10k+ posts) to manipulate comment threads on hacker news.

Asia Society Policy Institute

Yale Center Beijing

Brookings Institution (China Center)

Blondie in China

Elon Musk

Bill Bishop, Sinocism

Global media opinion of Obama will improve from EOY 2023 to mid year 2027, according to OpenAI's best LLM

Dec 18, 9:57 PMJul 1, 5:59 AM

66.12%chance

435

OptionVotes

YES

Will Pangdonglai announce plans to build supermarkets outside of Xuchang before 2030?

Dec 8, 11:31 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

67.57%chance

228

OptionVotes

YES

Ask China News

Prediction markets for Ask China

Prediction markets for Ask China

Prediction markets for Ask China

Will Xi Jinping continue to lead China through end of 2028?

Will Ice Cream turn out to actually be "healthy" based on consensus view at EOY 2026?

Will South Korea withdraw from the NPT by 2026?

3. China’s AI chip sector make significant strides, planting seeds for eventual decline on Nvidia [See full title!]

Will the US concede Taiwan to the PRC before 2030?

Will Lewis Hamilton win a Formula 1 Grand Prix while driving for Ferrari?

Does being smart and innovative require that AIs can never truly, deeply conform to social rules? [In development still]

Xi Fourth Term - Taiwan Invasion (before 2033) Matrix

Taiwan 2028 Long Range Market: Will the DPP run on a platform to maintain the status quo in Cross-Strait Relations?

Which China pundits may eventually be found to be assets of the CCP?

Global media opinion of Obama will improve from EOY 2023 to mid year 2027, according to OpenAI's best LLM

Will Pangdonglai announce plans to build supermarkets outside of Xuchang before 2030?

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