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Prediction markets for Ask China

Will Xi Jinping continue to lead China through end of 2028?

Oct 24, 1:01 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

67.43%chance

7813051

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1306

939

Will Ice Cream turn out to actually be "healthy" based on consensus view at EOY 2026?

Nov 11, 7:11 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

18.67%chance

171570

OptionVotes

YES

NO

6171

4649

Will South Korea withdraw from the NPT by 2026?

Apr 22, 4:33 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

9.75%chance

151050

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1062

940

Which positive news will make 2025 world-wide headlines?

Jan 4, 4:58 PMJan 11, 10:59 PM

11879

OptionProbability

Space Exploration

Technology

Medical/Healthcare

Fundamental research

Geopolitics

Environment and sustainability

Disaster Relief / Humanitarian Aid

Society

Art and culture

Human Rights

Economy

79

73

67

65

65

59

50

50

45

45

35

Will Twitter/X be unblocked in China before 2026?

Dec 12, 3:42 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

8.01%chance

8409

OptionVotes

YES

NO

217

96

Will the US restrict access outside the US to some APIs to generative AI before 2026?

May 16, 3:19 PMDec 31, 8:00 PM

35.95%chance

13376

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1200

853

Will the US Supreme Court issue a preliminary or permanent injunction halting Tariffs on China?

Apr 6, 8:28 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

14.67%chance

13231

OptionVotes

YES

NO

241

41

Will the District Court issue a preliminary or permanent injunction halting Tariffs on China?

Apr 6, 8:16 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

17.84%chance

13191

OptionVotes

YES

NO

215

47

Taiwan 2028 Long Range Market: Will the DPP run on a platform to maintain the status quo in Cross-Strait Relations?

Jan 14, 5:04 AMJan 1, 3:59 PM

75.04%chance

3106

OptionVotes

NO

YES

138

63

Xi Fourth Term - Taiwan Invasion (before 2033) Matrix

Jul 8, 2:27 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

396

OptionProbability

Xi secures fourth term, China doesn't invade Taiwan

Xi secures fourth term, China invades Taiwan

Xi doesn't secure fourth term, China invades Taiwan

Xi doesn't secure fourth term, China doesn't invade Taiwan

67

15

10

8

Will Pangdonglai announce plans to build supermarkets outside of Xuchang before 2030?

Dec 8, 11:31 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

67.57%chance

228

OptionVotes

NO

YES

92

55

Global media opinion of Obama will improve from EOY 2023 to mid year 2027, according to OpenAI's best LLM

Dec 18, 9:57 PMJul 1, 5:59 AM

49.85%chance

215

OptionVotes

NO

YES

50

50

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