Ask China News

Will Xi Jinping continue to lead China through end of 2028?

Oct 24, 1:01 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

63.33%chance

8313325

OptionVotes

YES

1172

1009

Will Ice Cream turn out to actually be "healthy" based on consensus view at EOY 2026?

Nov 11, 7:11 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

10.68%chance

195588

OptionVotes

YES

10173

3993

Will South Korea withdraw from the NPT by 2026?

Apr 22, 4:33 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

9.75%chance

161070

OptionVotes

YES

1062

940

Trump says "God bless China" before the end of his second term

Jun 24, 5:31 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

19%chance

15656

OptionVotes

YES

206

3. China’s AI chip sector make significant strides, planting seeds for eventual decline on Nvidia [See full title!]

Dec 28, 11:24 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

63.96%chance

8548

OptionVotes

YES

1334

752

Will the US Supreme Court issue a preliminary or permanent injunction halting Tariffs on China?

Apr 6, 8:28 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

17.76%chance

14236

OptionVotes

YES

215

China implements 30+ infrastructure connectivity projects in Africa by EOY 2027?

Nov 26, 3:39 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

67.63%chance

6157

OptionVotes

YES

145

Xi Fourth Term - Taiwan Invasion (before 2033) Matrix

Jul 8, 2:27 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

5107

OptionProbability

Xi secures fourth term, China doesn't invade Taiwan

Xi secures fourth term, China invades Taiwan

Xi doesn't secure fourth term, China invades Taiwan

Xi doesn't secure fourth term, China doesn't invade Taiwan

Will the US Appeals Court issue a preliminary or permanent injunction halting Tariffs on China?

Apr 6, 8:41 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

20%chance

8100

OptionVotes

YES

200

Which China pundits may eventually be found to be assets of the CCP?

Jan 16, 9:41 PMJul 1, 6:59 AM

570

OptionProbability

Jeffrey Sachs

Huey Li (and the news)

SerpentZA

Laowhy86

Nicholas Kristof

Michael Pettis

Peter Hessler

James Fallows

Kevin D Walmsley of Inside China Business

Liziqi

Nathan Rich

Living in China

Jerry Kowal

Significant effort (10k+ posts) to manipulate comment threads on hacker news.

Asia Society Policy Institute

Yale Center Beijing

Brookings Institution (China Center)

Blondie in China

Elon Musk

Bill Bishop, Sinocism

Does being smart and innovative require that AIs can never truly, deeply conform to social rules? [In development still]

Dec 22, 8:25 AMJan 2, 6:59 AM

48.5%chance

866

OptionVotes

YES

163

135

Will Pangdonglai announce plans to build supermarkets outside of Xuchang before 2030?

Dec 8, 11:31 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

67.57%chance

228

OptionVotes

YES

Ask China News

Prediction markets for Ask China

Prediction markets for Ask China

Prediction markets for Ask China

Will Xi Jinping continue to lead China through end of 2028?

Will Ice Cream turn out to actually be "healthy" based on consensus view at EOY 2026?

Will South Korea withdraw from the NPT by 2026?

Trump says "God bless China" before the end of his second term

3. China’s AI chip sector make significant strides, planting seeds for eventual decline on Nvidia [See full title!]

Will the US Supreme Court issue a preliminary or permanent injunction halting Tariffs on China?

China implements 30+ infrastructure connectivity projects in Africa by EOY 2027?

Xi Fourth Term - Taiwan Invasion (before 2033) Matrix

Will the US Appeals Court issue a preliminary or permanent injunction halting Tariffs on China?

Which China pundits may eventually be found to be assets of the CCP?

Does being smart and innovative require that AIs can never truly, deeply conform to social rules? [In development still]

Will Pangdonglai announce plans to build supermarkets outside of Xuchang before 2030?

Latest stories