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Prediction markets for Ask China

Will Xi Jinping continue to lead China through end of 2028?

Oct 24, 1:01 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

81.74%chance

9815497

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2071

688

Will Ice Cream turn out to actually be "healthy" based on consensus view at EOY 2026?

Nov 11, 7:11 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

7.46%chance

2112898

OptionVotes

YES

NO

13764

3641

3. China’s AI chip sector make significant strides, planting seeds for eventual decline on Nvidia [See full title!]

Dec 28, 11:24 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

87.75%chance

171910

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2681

374

Will the US concede Taiwan to the PRC before 2030?

Mar 1, 4:06 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

18.17%chance

16992

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1100

977

Will Trump, Xi and Putin hold a three-way in-person meeting by November 22, 2026?

Oct 15, 6:23 PMNov 22, 11:59 PM

20.56%chance

12352

OptionVotes

YES

NO

142

86

Will the US Supreme Court issue a preliminary or permanent injunction halting Tariffs on China?

Apr 6, 8:28 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

17.76%chance

14236

OptionVotes

YES

NO

215

46

Does being smart and innovative require that AIs can never truly, deeply conform to social rules? [In development still]

Dec 22, 8:25 AMJan 2, 6:59 AM

65.02%chance

9125

OptionVotes

NO

YES

194

119

Will a sample from the Martian system be returned to Earth by an Asian space agency before a Western space agency?

Jun 19, 8:47 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

34.2%chance

481

OptionVotes

YES

NO

155

27

Will there be a commercially available LLM-based self-driving system by EoY 2030?

Sep 24, 8:27 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

43.21%chance

280

OptionVotes

NO

YES

350

101

Global media opinion of Obama will improve from EOY 2023 to mid year 2027, according to OpenAI's best LLM

Dec 18, 9:57 PMJul 1, 5:59 AM

66.12%chance

435

OptionVotes

NO

YES

70

36

Will Pangdonglai announce plans to build supermarkets outside of Xuchang before 2030?

Dec 8, 11:31 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

67.57%chance

228

OptionVotes

NO

YES

92

55

Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2027? (Tumbles Judgement)

Jun 19, 10:32 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

10.47%chance

414

OptionVotes

NO

YES

101

95

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