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Prediction markets for Ask Me Anything

When will I do my first clean pull-up?

Jan 4, 12:18 AMJan 31, 10:59 PM

1553542

OptionProbability

Dec 2026 or later/never

Oct 2026

Nov 2026

May 2026

Jun 2026

Jul 2026

Aug 2026

Sep 2026

Jan 2026

Feb 2026

Mar 2026

Apr 2026

83

3

3

2

2

2

2

2

1

1

1

1

Does Martingale betting have zero expected value even with unlimited funds? (note caveats)

Nov 12, 8:51 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

16.34%chance

4853458

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2009

482

Did the Russians deliberately blow up the Nova Kakhovka dam? (Resolves NO if it was negligence rather than sabotage)

Jun 6, 8:56 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

64.08%chance

12237779

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2268

1941

In what specific year will we hit AGI?

Mar 12, 9:42 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

7710961

OptionProbability

2029

2030

2035+

2028

2031

2032

2027

2033

2034

2026

2025

15

15

15

13

12

9

7

6

4

3

0

Will the class-action lawsuit by artists against several AI art generators be successful?

Jan 17, 4:24 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

19.76%chance

725643

OptionVotes

YES

NO

6181

6090

Will I lose another character in my PbP RPG server before anyone else loses a character?

Jul 1, 4:51 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

29.57%chance

4988

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1543

648

Will cybernetic body modification technologies become commonplace in developed countries by 2077?

Dec 21, 10:38 PMJan 1, 6:59 AM

78.59%chance

27827

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1213

908

AI honesty #4: by 2027, will we have AI that would tell us if it was planning on destroying us (conditional on that being true)?

Oct 13, 4:13 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

22.51%chance

15345

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1191

913

In the winter of 2035-2036, will we get enough snow in Barriere, British Columbia to have a decent snowball fight?

Dec 11, 3:25 AMApr 1, 4:00 AM

74.77%chance

12294

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1100

941

NYTimes changes default pronoun assumptions in English to "They" from "He/She"

Mar 14, 4:52 PMJun 2, 6:59 AM

68.6%chance

13280

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1079

952

Will another accidental liftoff occur before 2035?

Mar 30, 5:27 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

42.55%chance

5172

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1162

861

🎱🤖 AnswerBot 3000: Ask me anything and I'll answer how I think it should be answered.

Jan 15, 4:05 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

211

OptionProbability

Do you want to answer No to this question?

Can I compose music for one of your future projects?

Example: Have you ever gone skydiving?

Example: Is there a god?

Can blob fish dance ballet under diagonally fried cucumbers made of dust storms?

59

50

0

0

0

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