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Prediction markets for Ask Me Anything

Does Martingale betting have zero expected value even with unlimited funds? (note caveats)

Nov 12, 8:51 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

8.04%chance

4852336

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3129

336

Will the class-action lawsuit by artists against several AI art generators be successful?

Jan 17, 4:24 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

19.76%chance

725643

OptionVotes

YES

NO

6181

6090

Will the United States take military action against any other NATO member in 2026?

Jan 7, 8:25 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

10.6%chance

254241

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2460

681

When will I do my first clean pull-up?

Jan 4, 12:18 AMJan 31, 10:59 PM

82131

OptionProbability

Feb 2026

Jan 2026

Mar 2026

Apr 2026

May 2026

Dec 2026 or later/never

Jun 2026

Jul 2026

Aug 2026

Sep 2026

Nov 2026

Oct 2026

16

13

10

10

9

8

6

6

6

6

6

5

Will a right to digital privacy be established in the USA saying your AI cannot be used against you in a court of law?

May 6, 11:40 PMDec 25, 4:59 AM

10%chance

261713

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1530

1005

Will I lose another character in my PbP RPG server before anyone else loses a character?

Jul 1, 4:51 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

30.96%chance

3938

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1493

670

Will cybernetic body modification technologies become commonplace in developed countries by 2077?

Dec 21, 10:38 PMJan 1, 6:59 AM

77.61%chance

26777

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1163

922

AI honesty #4: by 2027, will we have AI that would tell us if it was planning on destroying us (conditional on that being true)?

Oct 13, 4:13 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

22.51%chance

15345

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1191

913

In the winter of 2035-2036, will we get enough snow in Barriere, British Columbia to have a decent snowball fight?

Dec 11, 3:25 AMApr 1, 4:00 AM

74.77%chance

12294

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1100

941

NYTimes changes default pronoun assumptions in English to "They" from "He/She"

Mar 14, 4:52 PMJun 2, 6:59 AM

68.6%chance

13280

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1079

952

Will another accidental liftoff occur before 2035?

Mar 30, 5:27 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

43.18%chance

4157

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1147

872

🎱🤖 AnswerBot 3000: Ask me anything and I'll answer how I think it should be answered.

Jan 15, 4:05 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

211

OptionProbability

Do you want to answer No to this question?

Can I compose music for one of your future projects?

Example: Have you ever gone skydiving?

Example: Is there a god?

Can blob fish dance ballet under diagonally fried cucumbers made of dust storms?

59

50

0

0

0

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