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Prediction markets for Ask Me Anything

Does Martingale betting have zero expected value even with unlimited funds? (note caveats)

Nov 12, 8:51 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

8%chance

4752334

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3140

335

Did the Russians deliberately blow up the Nova Kakhovka dam? (Resolves NO if it was negligence rather than sabotage)

Jun 6, 8:56 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

64.9%chance

12137711

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2242

1989

Will AI be passable at answering Magic: The Gathering rules questions before 2030?

Oct 5, 10:21 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

87.82%chance

426398

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1350

901

Will an OpenAI model design an improved version of an existing drug in 2025?

Jan 19, 7:23 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

50.27%chance

294216

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1005

995

Will I get my money back from Card Titan?

Oct 3, 12:03 AMJan 1, 12:38 AM

22.39%chance

102650

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1862

537

Will a right to digital privacy be established in the USA saying your AI cannot be used against you in a court of law?

May 6, 11:40 PMDec 25, 4:59 AM

10%chance

251703

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1530

1005

Will cybernetic body modification technologies become commonplace in developed countries by 2077?

Dec 21, 10:38 PMJan 1, 6:59 AM

80.77%chance

25727

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1339

876

AI honesty #4: by 2027, will we have AI that would tell us if it was planning on destroying us (conditional on that being true)?

Oct 13, 4:13 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

22.3%chance

14342

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1201

910

In the winter of 2035-2036, will we get enough snow in Barriere, British Columbia to have a decent snowball fight?

Dec 11, 3:25 AMApr 1, 4:00 AM

74.77%chance

12294

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1100

941

NYTimes changes default pronoun assumptions in English to "They" from "He/She"

Mar 14, 4:52 PMJun 2, 6:59 AM

68.6%chance

13280

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1079

952

Will another accidental liftoff occur before 2035?

Mar 30, 5:27 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

43.18%chance

4157

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1147

872

🎱🤖 AnswerBot 3000: Ask me anything and I'll answer how I think it should be answered.

Jan 15, 4:05 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

211

OptionProbability

Do you want to answer No to this question?

Can I compose music for one of your future projects?

Example: Have you ever gone skydiving?

Example: Is there a god?

Can blob fish dance ballet under diagonally fried cucumbers made of dust storms?

59

50

0

0

0

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