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Prediction markets for Ask The Post AI

Will AI convincingly mimic Scott Alexander's writing in style, depth, and insight before 2026?

Mar 18, 6:08 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

7.01%chance

336127763

OptionVotes

YES

NO

7827

467

In 2030, will there be an AI that can write blog posts as good as a 75th percentile ACX post, according to Scott Alexander's judgement?

Feb 3, 4:31 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

76%chance

10813485

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2950

638

[MANA BOUNTY + USD BOUNTY] Will Manifold help me land a role I'm happy with by EOY 2025?

Jul 5, 12:41 PMDec 30, 11:59 PM

20.12%chance

3612488

OptionVotes

YES

NO

19925

5019

By 2028, will I think Anthropic has been net-good for the world?

Dec 2, 8:49 PMJan 1, 12:00 AM

55.54%chance

4310746

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1097

854

Will tailcalled think that the Brain-Like AGI alignment research program has achieved something important by October 20th, 2026?

Oct 20, 1:36 PMOct 20, 9:59 PM

33.32%chance

177377

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2045

552

By 2028, will I think OpenAI has been net-good for the world?

Dec 2, 8:34 PMJan 1, 12:00 AM

25.43%chance

346095

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1270

866

Will top open-weight LLMs in 2025 reason opaquely?

Dec 11, 6:09 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

24.16%chance

271808

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1772

564

Will an AI-generated #memefold meme win a monthly poll in 2025?

Apr 15, 10:59 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

34.24%chance

181612

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1386

722

By 2028, will I think DeepMind has been net-good for the world?

Dec 2, 8:32 PMJan 1, 12:00 AM

38.66%chance

251521

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1156

871

Will a "Sharp Left Turn" occur (as described by the Alignment Forum, Nate Soares, and Victoria Krakovna et. al.)?

Apr 12, 8:49 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

34.04%chance

19700

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1003

994

Will six months or fewer elapse between when Manifold declares the achievement of AGI and superintelligence?

Aug 31, 6:41 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

37.48%chance

8614

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1291

774

Will my Pokemon AI win its Nat Dex Monotype Gauntlet?

Dec 30, 3:18 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

41.23%chance

3205

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1194

838

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