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Prediction markets for Ask The Post AI

In 2030, will there be an AI that can write blog posts as good as a 75th percentile ACX post, according to Scott Alexander's judgement?

Feb 3, 4:31 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

76%chance

10913611

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2950

638

By 2028, will I think Anthropic has been net-good for the world?

Dec 2, 8:49 PMJan 1, 12:00 AM

56.47%chance

4410766

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1081

874

Will tailcalled think that the Brain-Like AGI alignment research program has achieved something important by October 20th, 2026?

Oct 20, 1:36 PMOct 20, 9:59 PM

21.86%chance

209674

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2507

379

By 2028, will I think OpenAI has been net-good for the world?

Dec 2, 8:34 PMJan 1, 12:00 AM

25.43%chance

356155

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1270

866

By 2028, will I think MIRI has been net-good for the world?

Nov 29, 7:22 PMJan 1, 12:00 AM

79.71%chance

234040

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1688

729

By 2028, will I think DeepMind has been net-good for the world?

Dec 2, 8:32 PMJan 1, 12:00 AM

38.66%chance

251521

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1156

871

Will six months or fewer elapse between when Manifold declares the achievement of AGI and superintelligence?

Aug 31, 6:41 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

31.18%chance

101345

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1486

673

Will the US concede Taiwan to the PRC before 2030?

Mar 1, 4:06 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

22.59%chance

12744

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1031

884

Will a "Sharp Left Turn" occur (as described by the Alignment Forum, Nate Soares, and Victoria Krakovna et. al.)?

Apr 12, 8:49 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

34.04%chance

19700

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1003

994

Will an AI generate a blog post indistinguishable from Robin Hanson's writing if tested before 2030?

Apr 16, 2:03 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

78%chance

25652

OptionVotes

YES

NO

998

932

Will manifold introduce LLM-based spam detection by EOY 2026?

Feb 17, 2:03 PMDec 30, 11:59 PM

39.7%chance

12643

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1233

811

By 2028, will I think Redwood Research has been net-good for the world?

Dec 3, 11:22 AMJan 1, 12:00 AM

82.91%chance

13444

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1230

926

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