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Prediction markets for Ask The Post AI

In 2030, will there be an AI that can write blog posts as good as a 75th percentile ACX post, according to Scott Alexander's judgement?

Feb 3, 4:31 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

84.14%chance

10914299

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3638

469

Will tailcalled think that the Brain-Like AGI alignment research program has achieved something important by October 20th, 2026?

Oct 20, 1:36 PMOct 20, 9:59 PM

10.71%chance

2412029

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3374

219

By 2028, will I think Anthropic has been net-good for the world?

Dec 2, 8:49 PMJan 1, 12:00 AM

56.47%chance

4410766

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1081

874

By 2028, will I think OpenAI has been net-good for the world?

Dec 2, 8:34 PMJan 1, 12:00 AM

25.43%chance

356155

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1270

866

By 2028, will I think DeepMind has been net-good for the world?

Dec 2, 8:32 PMJan 1, 12:00 AM

38.66%chance

251521

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1156

871

Will six months or fewer elapse between when Manifold declares the achievement of AGI and superintelligence?

Aug 31, 6:41 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

31.18%chance

101345

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1486

673

Will manifold introduce LLM-based spam detection by EOY 2026?

Feb 17, 2:03 PMDec 30, 11:59 PM

24.99%chance

131159

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1733

577

Will closed-source models be more or less aligned one year from now?

Aug 6, 12:41 AMAug 6, 12:39 AM

52.96%chance

6980

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1061

942

Will the US concede Taiwan to the PRC before 2030?

Mar 1, 4:06 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

21.21%chance

14835

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1015

943

Will a "Sharp Left Turn" occur (as described by the Alignment Forum, Nate Soares, and Victoria Krakovna et. al.)?

Apr 12, 8:49 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

34.04%chance

19700

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1003

994

Will an AI generate a blog post indistinguishable from Robin Hanson's writing if tested before 2030?

Apr 16, 2:03 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

78%chance

25652

OptionVotes

YES

NO

998

932

Will open-source models be more or less aligned one year from now?

Aug 6, 12:49 AMAug 6, 12:48 AM

32.23%chance

4450

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1450

690

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