Ask While Reading News

Will we conclude Tesla launched level 4 robotaxis in summer 2025?

Apr 25, 8:31 PMSep 1, 11:59 PM

15.68%chance

24770128

OptionVotes

YES

1877

733

Is the "Promethean virus" in Large Language Models real?

Jun 7, 10:50 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

7.85%chance

8145087

OptionVotes

YES

33264

2509

Will good quality personalised AI novels be instantly and cheaply available by the end of 2027?

Jun 27, 3:49 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

60%chance

17243865

OptionVotes

YES

1585

1297

Health issues from 100% Huel diet discovered by 2035?

Sep 21, 9:08 PMDec 28, 11:59 PM

71.68%chance

10535790

OptionVotes

YES

15911

6285

Will AI have a trillion+ dollar impact by the end of 2030?

Oct 29, 12:44 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

96.04%chance

10423559

OptionVotes

YES

10119

734

Will tailcalled think that the Brain-Like AGI alignment research program has achieved something important by October 20th, 2026?

Oct 20, 1:36 PMOct 20, 9:59 PM

21.86%chance

209674

OptionVotes

YES

2507

379

What will my beliefs about unsolved mysteries be in 2045?

Mar 16, 11:45 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

175913

OptionProbability

The existence of Dark Matter explains the anomaly in galaxy rotation curves (85%)

COVID-19 was natural in origin (80%).

The Lost Colony of Roanoke colonists have living decedents (55%)

The Mar Saba letter discovered by Morton Smith and containing excerpts from the "Secret Gospel of Mark" is a modern forgery (25%)

D.B. Cooper survived his parachute jump and escaped (30%)

The Hubble Tension can be resolved without new physics or changes to cosmological models (55%)

JonBenét Ramsey was killed by a member of her family (10%)

Lizzie Borden killed her parents (10%)

Aaron Kosminski was Jack the Ripper (35%)

The Voynich manuscript is a meaningful text (15%)

AI generated philosophy book worth reading by the end of 2030 (detailed scenario)?

May 29, 12:00 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

62.73%chance

514506

OptionVotes

YES

1297

771

Will Claude Code support AGENTS.md in 2026?

Feb 7, 7:19 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

60.21%chance

273092

OptionVotes

YES

1230

813

LessOnline 2027 will use brand new event software

May 28, 7:51 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

70%chance

71439

OptionVotes

YES

1528

655

Is astrology a "gateway pseudoscience"?

Aug 20, 11:11 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

67.23%chance

45885

OptionVotes

YES

1167

886

Will there be an Ozymandias-Beihai act motivated by AI risks by 2035?

Jun 15, 12:04 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

44.93%chance

7176

OptionVotes

YES

1107

903

Ask While Reading News

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Prediction markets for Ask While Reading

Will we conclude Tesla launched level 4 robotaxis in summer 2025?

Is the "Promethean virus" in Large Language Models real?

Will good quality personalised AI novels be instantly and cheaply available by the end of 2027?

Health issues from 100% Huel diet discovered by 2035?

Will AI have a trillion+ dollar impact by the end of 2030?

Will tailcalled think that the Brain-Like AGI alignment research program has achieved something important by October 20th, 2026?

What will my beliefs about unsolved mysteries be in 2045?

AI generated philosophy book worth reading by the end of 2030 (detailed scenario)?

Will Claude Code support AGENTS.md in 2026?

LessOnline 2027 will use brand new event software

Is astrology a "gateway pseudoscience"?

Will there be an Ozymandias-Beihai act motivated by AI risks by 2035?

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