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Prediction markets for Ask While Reading

Will AI convincingly mimic Scott Alexander's writing in style, depth, and insight before 2026?

Mar 18, 6:08 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

7.01%chance

336127763

OptionVotes

YES

NO

7827

467

EIA projection for US BEV market share in 2026?

Aug 13, 6:16 PMMar 1, 11:59 PM

5112089

EIA projection for U.S. HEV market share in 2026?

Aug 13, 7:10 PMFeb 1, 11:59 PM

261750

OptionProbability

10 - 11.79 %

11.8 - 13.74 %

8 - 9.99 %

13.75 - 16 %

5 - 7.99 %

Other

29

29

13

13

8

7

Will good quality personalised AI novels be instantly and cheaply available by the end of 2027?

Jun 27, 3:49 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

44.44%chance

15835470

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1721

1121

Is the "Promethean virus" in Large Language Models real?

Jun 7, 10:50 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

13.02%chance

7532370

OptionVotes

YES

NO

25533

3383

Will AI have a trillion+ dollar impact by the end of 2025?

Apr 25, 2:15 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

8.51%chance

14027140

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4793

842

Will AI have a trillion+ dollar impact by the end of 2030?

Oct 29, 12:44 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

96.04%chance

10423559

OptionVotes

NO

YES

10119

734

[MANA BOUNTY + USD BOUNTY] Will Manifold help me land a role I'm happy with by EOY 2025?

Jul 5, 12:41 PMDec 30, 11:59 PM

20.12%chance

3612488

OptionVotes

YES

NO

19925

5019

EIA Projection for U.S. ICE market share in 2026?

Aug 13, 7:23 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

18950

OptionProbability

75.8 - 77.79 %

74 - 75.79 %

71 - 73.99 %

77.8 - 79.99 %

80 - 82.99 %

Other

31

29

15

14

5

5

Will tailcalled think that the Brain-Like AGI alignment research program has achieved something important by October 20th, 2026?

Oct 20, 1:36 PMOct 20, 9:59 PM

33.32%chance

177377

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2045

552

EIA projection for U.S. PHEV market share in 2026?

Aug 13, 6:41 PMMar 2, 4:59 AM

14700

OptionProbability

2.00 - 2.49%

1.5 - 1.99%

0 - 1.49%

2.5 - 3.19%

3.2 - 100%

39

24

15

15

7

AI generated philosophy book worth reading by the end of 2030 (detailed scenario)?

May 29, 12:00 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

67.44%chance

473985

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1439

695

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