Ask While Reading News

Is the "Promethean virus" in Large Language Models real?

Jun 7, 10:50 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

10%chance

8141187

OptionVotes

YES

29364

2889

Will good quality personalised AI novels be instantly and cheaply available by the end of 2027?

Jun 27, 3:49 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

39.57%chance

16940406

OptionVotes

YES

1882

1004

Health issues from 100% Huel diet discovered by 2035?

Sep 21, 9:08 PMDec 28, 11:59 PM

69.61%chance

10535467

OptionVotes

YES

15133

6608

Will AI have a trillion+ dollar impact by the end of 2030?

Oct 29, 12:44 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

96.04%chance

10423559

OptionVotes

YES

10119

734

Will the Supreme Court weaken Section 2 of the Voting Rights Act in Louisiana v. Callais?

Oct 17, 7:08 PMOct 17, 11:59 PM

69.67%chance

1914646

OptionVotes

YES

15156

6598

By the end of 2028 will AI be able to write an original article and get it accepted in a prestigious Philosophy journal?

Mar 22, 5:09 AMDec 31, 12:59 PM

36.31%chance

5711924

OptionVotes

YES

1395

643

EIA Projection for U.S. ICE market share in 2026?

Aug 13, 7:23 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

39970

OptionProbability

75.8 - 77.79 %

74 - 75.79 %

77.8 - 79.99 %

71 - 73.99 %

80 - 82.99 %

Other

Will tailcalled think that the Brain-Like AGI alignment research program has achieved something important by October 20th, 2026?

Oct 20, 1:36 PMOct 20, 9:59 PM

36.35%chance

177427

OptionVotes

YES

1952

602

What will my beliefs about unsolved mysteries be in 2045?

Mar 16, 11:45 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

145758

OptionProbability

The existence of Dark Matter explains the anomaly in galaxy rotation curves (85%)

COVID-19 was natural in origin (80%).

The Lost Colony of Roanoke colonists have living decedents (55%)

The Mar Saba letter discovered by Morton Smith and containing excerpts from the "Secret Gospel of Mark" is a modern forgery (25%)

D.B. Cooper survived his parachute jump and escaped (30%)

The Hubble Tension can be resolved without new physics or changes to cosmological models (55%)

JonBenét Ramsey was killed by a member of her family (10%)

Lizzie Borden killed her parents (10%)

Aaron Kosminski was Jack the Ripper (35%)

The Voynich manuscript is a meaningful text (15%)

AI generated philosophy book worth reading by the end of 2030 (detailed scenario)?

May 29, 12:00 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

70.02%chance

504175

OptionVotes

YES

1528

654

Is astrology a "gateway pseudoscience"?

Aug 20, 11:11 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

67.23%chance

45885

OptionVotes

YES

1167

886

Will there be an Ozymandias-Beihai act motivated by AI risks by 2035?

Jun 15, 12:04 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

44.93%chance

7176

OptionVotes

YES

1107

903

Ask While Reading News

Prediction markets for Ask While Reading

Prediction markets for Ask While Reading

Prediction markets for Ask While Reading

Is the "Promethean virus" in Large Language Models real?

Will good quality personalised AI novels be instantly and cheaply available by the end of 2027?

Health issues from 100% Huel diet discovered by 2035?

Will AI have a trillion+ dollar impact by the end of 2030?

Will the Supreme Court weaken Section 2 of the Voting Rights Act in Louisiana v. Callais?

By the end of 2028 will AI be able to write an original article and get it accepted in a prestigious Philosophy journal?

EIA Projection for U.S. ICE market share in 2026?

Will tailcalled think that the Brain-Like AGI alignment research program has achieved something important by October 20th, 2026?

What will my beliefs about unsolved mysteries be in 2045?

AI generated philosophy book worth reading by the end of 2030 (detailed scenario)?

Is astrology a "gateway pseudoscience"?

Will there be an Ozymandias-Beihai act motivated by AI risks by 2035?

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