ASL News

The METR time horizon will exceed 10 hours.

xAI IPO

FrontierMath Tier 1-3 >= 80%

FrontierMath Tier 4 >= 80%

An open millennium prize problem is solved, involving some AI assistance

OpenAI will introduce ads to ChatGPT in some form

ARC-AGI 3 Semi-private >= 50%

SSI will raise >= $1B in a funding round

OpenAI releases GPT-6

Anthropic releases Claude 5

Schmidhuber will complain about people not citing his work properly

OpenAI will announce some kind of hardware product

Zvi will write a blog post mentioning SSI

SSI will have an update listed at https://ssi.inc/updates

Thinking Machines will train and release their own model

Yudkowsky will publish a post on Lesswrong

A Solid Result in FrontierMath: Open Problems is solved by AI

I will think that there has been significant progress towards models which use neuralese/recurrence

Sam Altman will continuously be CEO of OpenAI until the end of the year.

An AGI lab will be valued at >= $1T

Ilya Sutskever will continuously be CEO of SSI until the end of the year

I will think that computer use has significantly improved since 2025

Epoch Capabilities Index >= 170

Jensen Huang continuously CEO of Nvidia through EOY 2026

Dario Amodei will continuously be CEO of Anthropic until the end of the year

Microsoft+Google+Amazon+Meta capex will increase by >=30% vs 2025

My median ASI timelines will shorten

Anthropic IPO

Grok 5 will be released

The METR time horizon will exceed 20 hours

There will be federal AI Safety legislation which I think is net positive

An LLM will beat me at chess

Anthropic will release a model classified as ASL-4

My P(doom) at EOY (resolves to %)

An open source model will be released with 5T+ total parameters

Ilya Sutskever will be on a podcast for more than 30 mins

There will be an international treaty/agreement centered on AI

There will be clear evidence of egregious scheming in the wild

SSI will release a product

Nvidia will outperform the S&P

An LLM will beat me at Shogi

I will think that there have been significant advances in continual learning

The METR time horizon will exceed 40 hours

Epoch AI will estimate that there has been a training run using more than 5e27 FLOP

At least 3 people will do an anti-AI hunger strike

I will think that METR time horizon continues to be an important benchmark

Anthropic releases Claude 6

I will meet someone who has an AI companion

I will ride on a tesla robotaxi

The US will allow selling some sort of Blackwell chip to china

Any of [OpenAI, Microsoft, Google, Anthropic, xAI, Meta] claim to have reached AGI

Largest distributed training run exceeds 1e25 FLOP

Google will outperform the S&P

Yann Lecun’s AMI lab will release an open weights model of some kind

Any of [Coreweave, Nebius, Lambda] will be acquired

Any of [Coreweave, Nebius, Lambda] declare bankruptcy

Epoch Capabilities Index >= 185

Chatgpt will write an explicit sex story without jailbreaks

Anthropic will release a model classified as ASL-5

There will be an AI capabilities pause lasting at least a month involving frontier companies

Metaculus will predict AGI before 2030

AAA with LLM powered NPCs releases on Steam

SSI will raise >=$10B in a funding round

Thinking machines will post at least 10 blog posts at https://thinkingmachines.ai/blog/

There will be an AI protest involving more than 100k people

There will be a credible leak about SSI strategy

I will watch a fully AI-generated film lasting at least an hour

I will see a humanoid robot walking around in a non-demo setting

An open source model will top the Chatbot Arena in the 'text' category

I will think that a model released by Meta is the best coding model for a period of at least a week.

The bubble collapses in devastating fashion

Anthropic will release an image/video model

SSI will be valued at >= $100B

An AGI lab will be fined >= $10B

OpenAI will sell their own chips to external customers

Epoch Capabilities Index >= 200

Anthropic will introduce ads to Claude in some form

Largest distributed training run exceeds 1e27 FLOP according to Epoch AI

US unemployment rate reaches 10% due in part to AI

Grok 6 will be released

China will invade Taiwan according to metaculus

Any of [OpenAI, xAI, Google, Anthropic, Meta] releases an LLM (general-purpose or code-only) pretrained largely on licensed data

S&P 500 will fall by more than 50%

I will think that a Chinese model is the best coding model for a period of at least a week.

An AGI lab will be valued at >= $5T

Any of [OpenAI, xAI, Google, Anthropic, Meta] will offer a subscription plan costing >= $1,000/month.

Any of [OpenAI, xAI, Google, Anthropic, Meta] will offer a subscription plan costing >= $10,000/month.

I will think that SSI has the best coding model in the world for a period of at least a week

S&P 500 will rise by more than 50%

OpenAI IPO

Largest distributed training run exceeds 1e26 FLOP

The weights of a closed source model from [OA, XAI, GDM, Anthropic] will be stolen/leaked

Yudkowsky will publish a new book

SSI IPO

SSI will be valued at >= $1 T

YES

A model is publicly released which scores >45% on Humanity’s Last Exam (no tools)

A model is publicly released which scores >65% on Humanity’s Last Exam (no tools)

METR or an equivalently credible organization judges that a tested AI system (not necessarily released) is “self-sustaining,” capable in principle to “autonomously operate indefinitely, acquire resources, and defend its existence”

The US unemployment rate exceeds 10% for any reason

Anthropic announces that it has activated ASL-4 for an internally or externally deployed model

Anthropic announces that it has activated ASL-5 for an internally or externally deployed model

US Real GDP growth rate exceeds 6% (annualized) for two consecutive quarters, attributed primarily to AI

Before H2 2030

Before H1 2030

Before H2 2029

Before H1 2029

Before H2 2028

Before H1 2028

Before H2 2027

Before H1 2027

Before H2 2026

1e27

3e26

Other

3e25

1e25

1e26

1e24

2030

2029

2028

2027

YES

NO