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Prediction markets for ASP

Will the scientific community accept aspects of quantum consciousness by 2030? 🧠🔬⚛️🌀

Feb 28, 8:20 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

13.4%chance

424252

OptionVotes

NO

YES

965

779

Will the percentage of top graduates in math and CS at elite universities who aspire to AI safety work rise by May 2029?

May 23, 1:22 PMMay 31, 3:59 AM

77.79%chance

422533

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1871

534

Will the first AGI build on some novel aspect of the Q* 'breakthrough' that reportedly contributed to the Altman firing?

Nov 23, 12:14 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

41.32%chance

13711

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1206

382

When will the Aspirational Neuroscience Memory Decoding Prize be won, if it is won by 2045?

Dec 20, 12:01 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

5645

OptionProbability

2027

2035

2031

2033

2029

2037

2039

2041

2043

2045

Later than 2045 or never

59

7

5

5

4

3

3

3

3

3

3

Will Ai pervade every aspect of the real world before 2030, like electricity?

Aug 4, 4:11 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

42.01%chance

28520

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1002

988

Will Delian Asparouhov (or a parody of) make it into GTA6?

Apr 10, 7:40 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

12.84%chance

3190

OptionVotes

YES

NO

310

50

Will WHO/IARC designate aspartame as probably carcinogenic or carcinogenic within the next ten years?

Oct 2, 2:31 PMOct 31, 10:59 PM

32.32%chance

5100

OptionVotes

YES

NO

134

93

By 2030, will I have strong regrets about having created some market about an aspect of my personal life?

Jun 11, 6:01 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

25.04%chance

1087

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1054

972

Will the IARC call Aspartame, Aloe Vera Gel, or Wireless Radiation at least ‘Probably Carcinogenic to Humans’ by 2040?

Jul 2, 4:08 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

40.04%chance

485

OptionVotes

NO

YES

128

128

Is Ilya Sutskever Aspie/autistic?

Oct 19, 6:54 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

59.02%chance

110

OptionVotes

NO

YES

80

62

Is Adam d'Angelo Aspie/autistic?

Oct 19, 6:53 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

50%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

50

50

Is Andrej Karpathy Aspie/autistic?

Oct 19, 6:53 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

50%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

50

50

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