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Prediction markets for ASP

Will the scientific community accept aspects of quantum consciousness by 2030? 🧠🔬⚛️🌀

Feb 28, 8:20 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

15.29%chance

424152

OptionVotes

NO

YES

982

679

Will the percentage of top graduates in math and CS at elite universities who aspire to AI safety work rise by May 2029?

May 23, 1:22 PMMay 31, 3:59 AM

78.35%chance

422502

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1902

526

Tom Aspinall fights Jon Jones for UFC heavyweight title in 2025?

May 3, 11:09 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

1%chance

131464

OptionVotes

YES

NO

995

10

Will ASPR be held in 2025?

Dec 14, 11:34 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

95.9%chance

61327

OptionVotes

NO

YES

351

20

Will the first AGI build on some novel aspect of the Q* 'breakthrough' that reportedly contributed to the Altman firing?

Nov 23, 12:14 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

41.32%chance

13711

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1206

382

Will Ai pervade every aspect of the real world before 2030, like electricity?

Aug 4, 4:11 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

42.01%chance

28520

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1002

988

Will WHO/IARC designate aspartame as probably carcinogenic or carcinogenic within the next five years?

Oct 2, 2:24 PMOct 31, 10:59 PM

13.25%chance

8218

OptionVotes

YES

NO

347

113

Will China ease or dismantle major aspects of the Great Firewall’s censorship by the end of 2025?

Aug 25, 6:13 PMDec 30, 11:59 PM

9.16%chance

8215

OptionVotes

YES

NO

315

32

Will Delian Asparouhov (or a parody of) make it into GTA6?

Apr 10, 7:40 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

12.84%chance

3190

OptionVotes

YES

NO

310

50

Will someone perform asphyxiophilia with aella before 2026

Jun 21, 5:27 AMJun 23, 3:59 AM

20.37%chance

1100

OptionVotes

YES

NO

198

51

By 2030, will I have strong regrets about having created some market about an aspect of my personal life?

Jun 11, 6:01 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

25.04%chance

1087

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1054

972

Is Matei Zaharia aspie/autistic?

Oct 19, 6:58 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

50%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

50

50

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