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Prediction markets for ASP

Will the scientific community accept aspects of quantum consciousness by 2030? 🧠🔬⚛️🌀

Feb 28, 8:20 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

10.16%chance

444502

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1029

932

Will the percentage of top graduates in math and CS at elite universities who aspire to AI safety work rise by May 2029?

May 23, 1:22 PMMay 31, 3:59 AM

78.12%chance

422538

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1889

529

Will ASP Isotopes Yb-176 output (15m trailing, 3m lag) exceed 1.0 kg by Dec 2026?

Feb 19, 3:07 PMDec 31, 5:00 AM

45.73%chance

41407

OptionVotes

YES

NO

109

92

Will the first AGI build on some novel aspect of the Q* 'breakthrough' that reportedly contributed to the Altman firing?

Nov 23, 12:14 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

46.8%chance

13761

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1256

319

Will Ai pervade every aspect of the real world before 2030, like electricity?

Aug 4, 4:11 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

42.01%chance

28520

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1002

988

Will Tom Aspinall successfully defend the UFC heavy weight title?

Aug 20, 7:29 AMJul 1, 5:47 PM

59.94%chance

9217

OptionVotes

NO

YES

122

82

Will ASP Isotopes Yb-176 output (15m trailing, 3m lag) exceed 5.0 kg by Dec 2030?

Feb 19, 3:16 PMDec 31, 5:00 AM

35.88%chance

4135

OptionVotes

YES

NO

134

75

Will ASP Isotopes Yb-176 output (15m trailing, 3m lag) exceed 4.0 kg by Dec 2029?

Feb 19, 3:16 PMDec 31, 5:00 AM

66.91%chance

3132

OptionVotes

NO

YES

142

70

Will "Takes from two months as an aspiring LLM natu..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?

Apr 29, 3:03 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

15.7%chance

5119

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1019

891

Will ASP Isotopes Yb-176 output (15m trailing, 3m lag) exceed 3.0 kg by Dec 2028?

Feb 19, 3:11 PMDec 31, 5:00 AM

75.29%chance

3104

OptionVotes

NO

YES

175

57

Will ASP Isotopes Yb-176 output (15m trailing, 3m lag) exceed 2.0 kg by Dec 2027?

Feb 19, 3:11 PMDec 31, 5:00 AM

45.23%chance

4101

OptionVotes

YES

NO

110

91

By 2030, will I have strong regrets about having created some market about an aspect of my personal life?

Jun 11, 6:01 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

25.04%chance

1087

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1054

972

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