Assistants News

If the U.S. stops sending military assistance to Ukraine, will there be a ceasefire by the end of 2025?

Aug 20, 11:16 PMJan 31, 10:59 PM

3434275

OptionProbability

The U.S. keeps supporting Ukraine and there's no ceasefire

The U.S. keeps supporting Ukraine and there's a ceasefire

The U.S. stops supporting Ukraine and there's a ceasefire

The U.S. stops supporting Ukraine and there's no ceasefire

By the end of 2025, will any AI beat Pokemon Emerald Version without human assistance?

Jan 15, 9:33 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

12.72%chance

809570

OptionVotes

YES

2516

240

Will over 50% of households in any developed country use an AI assistant for daily decision-making by the end of 2030?

Jan 8, 6:16 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

55%chance

352427

OptionVotes

YES

1025

966

Will assisted suicide become legal in Michigan before 2035?

Aug 3, 3:32 PMDec 31, 5:59 AM

27.78%chance

52305

OptionVotes

YES

1612

620

Will GitHub release an assistant, similar to Copilot, able to insert comments in code by 2028?

May 27, 10:11 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

76.99%chance

81838

OptionVotes

YES

1829

547

Frontier science theorem discovery fully formalized in proof assistant before 2028?

May 23, 6:26 AMDec 31, 9:44 AM

22.82%chance

111221

OptionVotes

YES

1842

547

Will there be a robot caregiver that can take care of a person 80+ years old w/o assistance by end of 2040?

Feb 3, 12:07 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

80.17%chance

32954

OptionVotes

YES

1302

883

AI-assisted team beats non-AI team at FactoryAI x METR hackathon?

Aug 20, 7:31 PMSep 19, 7:29 PM

75.29%chance

8792

OptionVotes

YES

1745

573

Will assisted suicide become legal in Arizona before 2035?

Aug 3, 3:37 PMDec 31, 5:59 AM

43.83%chance

5256

OptionVotes

YES

1132

883

Will assisted suicide become legal in Arizona before 2045?

Aug 3, 3:38 PMDec 31, 5:59 AM

52.36%chance

150

OptionVotes

YES

1048

954

Will assisted suicide become legal in Michigan before 2045?

Aug 3, 3:32 PMDec 31, 5:59 AM

50.24%chance

OptionVotes

YES

1005

995

ICE Assistant Chief Counsel James Rodden, "GlomarResponder," leaves role/is fired before December 31, 2025

Feb 19, 11:47 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

50%chance

OptionVotes

YES

1000

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Prediction markets for Assistants

Prediction markets for Assistants

If the U.S. stops sending military assistance to Ukraine, will there be a ceasefire by the end of 2025?

By the end of 2025, will any AI beat Pokemon Emerald Version without human assistance?

Will over 50% of households in any developed country use an AI assistant for daily decision-making by the end of 2030?

Will assisted suicide become legal in Michigan before 2035?

Will GitHub release an assistant, similar to Copilot, able to insert comments in code by 2028?

Frontier science theorem discovery fully formalized in proof assistant before 2028?

Will there be a robot caregiver that can take care of a person 80+ years old w/o assistance by end of 2040?

AI-assisted team beats non-AI team at FactoryAI x METR hackathon?

Will assisted suicide become legal in Arizona before 2035?

Will assisted suicide become legal in Arizona before 2045?

Will assisted suicide become legal in Michigan before 2045?

ICE Assistant Chief Counsel James Rodden, "GlomarResponder," leaves role/is fired before December 31, 2025

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