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Astra News

Which of these rockets will reach orbit in 2025?

Jan 5, 3:25 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

339529

OptionProbability

New Glenn

H3

Long March 5

Zhuque 2

LVM3

Falcon Heavy

Nuri

Tianlong 3

Proton M

Zhuque 3

Ariane 64

Pallas 1

Starship

Chollima 1

Vikram 1

RFA One

Kairos

Qased

Ceres-2

Kinetica-2

Long March 12A

Isar Spectrum

Rocket Lab Neutron

Nebula-1

Skyrora XL

Orbex Prime

ABL RS1

Hyperbola-3

Astra Rocket 4

Stoke Space Nova

Gilmour Space Eris

Long March 10

100

100

100

100

87

85

66

44

38

37

36

36

35

35

35

31

31

27

26

24

22

17

13

13

10

9

8

7

6

5

4

4

Which of the following movies is the next 25 years most likely to resemble?

Aug 18, 1:46 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

635154

OptionProbability

Idiocracy (2006)

Other

Her (2013)

Interstellar (2014)

WALL-E (2008)

Ready Player One (2018)

Children of Men (2006)

The Matrix (1999)

Minority Report (2002)

The Terminator (2004)

Blade Runner (1982)

The Terminator (1984)

The Lives of Others (2006)

Back to the Future Part II (1989)

Elysium (2013)

Ad Astra (2019)

2001: A Space Odyssey (1968)

Gattaca (1997)

Wag the Dog (1997)

35

24

21

4

3

2

2

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

When will Rocket Lab Neutron launch for the first time?

Mar 28, 12:27 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

143660

OptionProbability

Before 2026-10-01

Before 2027-01-01

Before 2026-07-01

Before 2026-04-01

Before 2026-01-01

Before 2025-10-01

Before 2025-07-01

81

81

72

51

20

4

0

Scott Alexander/ Astral Codex Ten Stock (permanent)

Jan 24, 10:02 AMAug 11, 9:43 PM

153366

OptionProbability

NO

YES

369

188

Will the next version of Google's LLMs NOT have Flash / Pro / Ultra or other words after the number?

May 20, 8:01 PMMay 20, 7:59 PM

12.55%chance

42170

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2640

379

Which Boston restaurant(s) will get at least 1 Michelin Star by the end of March 2026?

May 14, 8:05 PMMar 31, 11:59 PM

8527

OptionProbability

Wa Shin

Giulia

Ostra

O Ya

Deuxave

Astra

Celeste

Nightshade Noodle Bar

Kaia

Mahaniyom

Brassica Kitchen + Cafe

97

58

50

36

34

34

34

28

28

28

24

Will Pascal Soriot (CEO of AstraZeneca) be charged with a serious crime before 2030?

Apr 14, 11:27 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

10.36%chance

7273

OptionVotes

YES

NO

335

126

Which movie is 2025 most likely to resemble?

Mar 24, 7:00 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

10247

OptionProbability

The Matrix (1999)

Idiocracy (2006)

Other

Her (2013)

Minority Report (2002)

The Terminator (1984)

WALL-E (2008)

2001: A Space Odyssey (1968)

Ex Machina (2014)

Ready Player One (2018)

Blade Runner (1982)

The Lives of Others (2006)

Elysium (2013)

V for Vendetta (2005)

A Boy and His Dog (1975)

The Road (2009)

Ad Astra (2019)

Children of Men (2006)

Gattaca (1997)

Wag the Dog (1997)

21

21

8

6

5

5

5

5

4

4

3

2

2

2

1

1

1

1

1

1

Will Astra's Rocket 4 ever achieve orbit?

Sep 9, 2:56 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

5.46%chance

5223

OptionVotes

YES

NO

283

15

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