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Prediction markets for Astra

When will OpenAI release Astra 6.1?

Oct 3, 12:34 AMNov 13, 4:59 AM

4021683

OptionProbability

Before Nov 13, 2026

Before Nov 6, 2026

Before Oct 30, 2026

Before Oct 23, 2026

Before Oct 16, 2026

50

0

0

0

0

GPT Astra 6.1+ Released By End of November 2026?

Oct 3, 1:41 AMNov 30, 11:59 PM

94.23%chance

3611631

OptionVotes

NO

YES

4191

385

GPT Astra 6.1+ Released By EOY 2026?

Oct 3, 1:41 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

96.13%chance

2510158

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3515

801

Which model will have a higher ECI score end of November, Opus 5.5 or GPT-6 Astra?

Sep 28, 10:35 AMNov 30, 11:59 PM

175462

OptionProbability

GPT 6 Astra

Opus 5.5

60

40

Will the next Claude Fable release score higher on ECI than the next GPT Astra release?

Sep 3, 9:21 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

45.18%chance

171530

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1101

908

Fable 5.5 VS GPT 6.2+ Astra: Which will I find better?

Nov 5, 1:32 AMDec 5, 1:32 AM

12786

OptionProbability

Fable 5.5

6.2+ Astra

57

43

Will Astra's Rocket 4 Launch in 2026?

Jan 23, 2:02 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

2%chance

3592

OptionVotes

YES

NO

626

72

Will Astra's Rocket 4 ever achieve orbit?

Sep 9, 2:56 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

42.34%chance

7463

OptionVotes

YES

NO

85

56

Will OpenAI’s Astra face U.S. government restrictions before January 1, 2027?

Sep 3, 9:19 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

6.93%chance

7331

OptionVotes

YES

NO

340

59

Will Astra 6.1+ be released before Fable 5.5+?

Nov 3, 5:30 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

74.95%chance

14291

OptionVotes

NO

YES

173

58

Will the next Astra 6.1+ beat the next Fable 5.2+ on Epoch's ECI? (Apr 30 snapshot)

Nov 2, 7:04 PMMar 31, 11:59 PM

52.35%chance

569

OptionVotes

YES

NO

105

94

On what date will OpenAI release GPT-6.2 Astra?

Nov 6, 1:40 AMFeb 1, 7:59 AM

150

OptionProbability

Nov 9–11

Nov 12–14

Nov 15–17

other date

Nov 6–8

50

50

50

50

10

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