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Prediction markets for AT

In 2028, will AI be at least as big a political issue as abortion?

Feb 20, 10:58 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

70.97%chance

24121764092

OptionVotes

NO

YES

9229

2594

Will OpenAI hint at [read description] or claim to have AGI by 2025 end?

Apr 13, 10:30 PMJan 1, 3:59 AM

9.04%chance

18031036485

OptionVotes

YES

NO

36292

6098

Which will be Manifold's largest revenue driver at the end of 2025?

Aug 11, 10:13 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

131594807

OptionProbability

Other

Mana purchases (or spread between sweeps purchase & redemption)

Fees from subsidizing or promoting markets

Subscription plan

House rake on games (e.g. poker)

On-site advertising

Transactions fees from trades

Interest on held cash

Selling data / API access / colocation

B2B income (e.g. setting up internal corporate markets)

Job board / hiring program

Sales of digital goods

Donations (e.g. Wikipedia)

43

30

6

5

3

3

2

2

2

2

1

1

1

In 2028, will an AI be able to play randomly selected computer games at human level without getting to practice?

Feb 20, 10:45 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

57.41%chance

463382717

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3543

1656

Manifest 2025 Startup Pitch Competition - Will at least 3 companies get funding?

May 9, 3:23 PMAug 31, 10:59 PM

15.45%chance

84260844

OptionVotes

YES

NO

142967

20491

In 2028, will at least 350,000 Americans (1/1000) be talking at least weekly to an AI they consider a romantic companion?

Feb 20, 10:56 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

86%chance

498197659

OptionVotes

NO

YES

5223

1087

Will at least 4 of the 7 Millennium Problems be solved by 2040?

Apr 3, 6:33 PMDec 31, 6:29 PM

50%chance

224184286

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1300

940

At the beginning of 2035, will Eliezer Yudkowsky still believe that AI doom is coming soon with high probability?

Mar 14, 8:29 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

51%chance

20847953

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2654

983

Will russia occupy kyiv at any point before 2030?

May 11, 12:09 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

19%chance

3229069

OptionVotes

YES

NO

206

48

Delayed Social Security payments to at least 100,000 people before December 31, 2025

Feb 1, 9:39 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

33.91%chance

12423197

OptionVotes

YES

NO

13029

7951

Will there be at least one major U.S. blackout caused by a cyberattack by 2027?

Apr 28, 9:40 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

31.7%chance

207035

OptionVotes

YES

NO

14677

6813

Will the US refuse entry to nonimmigrant travellers at at least three times the rate in 2025 than it did in 2024?

Apr 14, 6:21 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

40.34%chance

192825

OptionVotes

YES

NO

12162

8222

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