at Max News

J. Something 'just works' on the order of eg: train a predictive/imitative/generative AI on a human-generated dataset, and RLHF her to be unfailingly nice, generous to weaker entities, and determined to make the cosmos a lovely place.

B. Humanity puts forth a tremendous effort, and delays AI for long enough, and puts enough desperate work into alignment, that alignment gets solved first.

C. Solving prosaic alignment on the first critical try is not as difficult, nor as dangerous, nor taking as much extra time, as Yudkowsky predicts; whatever effort is put forth by the leading coalition works inside of their lead time.

Something wonderful happens that isn't well-described by any option listed. (The semantics of this option may change if other options are added.)

K. Somebody discovers a new AI paradigm that's powerful enough and matures fast enough to beat deep learning to the punch, and the new paradigm is much much more alignable than giant inscrutable matrices of floating-point numbers.

M. "We'll make the AI do our AI alignment homework" just works as a plan. (Eg the helping AI doesn't need to be smart enough to be deadly; the alignment proposals that most impress human judges are honest and truthful and successful.)

I. The tech path to AGI superintelligence is naturally slow enough and gradual enough, that world-destroyingly-critical alignment problems never appear faster than previous discoveries generalize to allow safe further experimentation.

O. Early applications of AI/AGI drastically increase human civilization's sanity and coordination ability; enabling humanity to solve alignment, or slow down further descent into AGI, etc. (Not in principle mutex with all other answers.)

You are fooled by at least one option on this list, which out of many tries, ends up sufficiently well-aimed at your personal ideals / prejudices / the parts you understand less well / your own personal indulgences in wishful thinking.

D. Early powerful AGIs realize that they wouldn't be able to align their own future selves/successors if their intelligence got raised further, and work honestly with humans on solving the problem in a way acceptable to both factions.

E. Whatever strange motivations end up inside an unalignable AGI, or the internal slice through that AGI which codes its successor, they max out at a universe full of cheerful qualia-bearing life and an okay outcome for existing humans.

F. Somebody pulls off a hat trick involving blah blah acausal blah blah simulations blah blah, or other amazingly clever idea, which leads an AGI to put the reachable galaxies to good use despite that AGI not being otherwise alignable.

H. Many competing AGIs form an equilibrium whereby no faction is allowed to get too powerful, and humanity is part of this equilibrium and survives and gets a big chunk of cosmic pie.

N. A crash project at augmenting human intelligence via neurotech, training mentats via neurofeedback, etc, produces people who can solve alignment before it's too late, despite Earth civ not slowing AI down much.

If you write an argument that breaks down the 'okay outcomes' into lots of distinct categories, without breaking down internal conjuncts and so on, Reality is very impressed with how disjunctive this sounds and allocates more probability.

A. Humanity successfully coordinates worldwide to prevent the creation of powerful AGIs for long enough to develop human intelligence augmentation, uploading, or some other pathway into transcending humanity's window of fragility.

G. It's impossible/improbable for something sufficiently smarter and more capable than modern humanity to be created, that it can just do whatever without needing humans to cooperate; nor does it successfully cheat/trick us.

(JAP) Red flag during Qualyfing session

[BAH] Safety car during the race

[BAH] Yuki Tsunoda scores points

[BAH] Bearman scores points

[SAU] Safety Car during the race

[SAU] Tsunoda makes it into Q3

[SAU] Leclerc will get top 4 in the race

[MIA] Norris qualifies ahead of Piastri (main race qualifying)

[MIA] Non-Mclaren pole in Sprint Qualifying

[MIA] Piastri finishes ahead of Norris in GP

[MIA] Williams double points in the main GP

[MIA] Over 3.5 Drivers DNF in the main race

[MIA] Both McLaren on the podium

[IMO] Physical Safety Car during the race

[IMO] Max Verstappen Podium Finish

[IMO] Colapinto replaces Doohan in at least one session

[IMO] Piastri qualifies ahead of Norris

[IMO] Tsunoda scores point(s)

[MON] Red Flag during Qualifying

[MON] Pole Sitter wins the race

[MON] At least one impeding penalty during qualifying

[MON] 4+ pit stops in the first 5 laps

[MON] Norris scores more points than Piastri

[MON] Yellow flag on the 1st lap of the race

[MON] Both Ferraris finish in top 5

[SPA] Both Ferraris reach Q3

[SPA] McLaren Pole Position

[SPA] McLaren 1-2 (race)

[CAN] Physical Safety Car during the race

[CAN] Red Flag during Qualifying

[CAN] Stroll starts the race

[CAN] Impeding penalty during Qualifying (at least 1)

[CAN] Mercedes Podium

[CAN] Hulkenberg finishes in top 10

[CAN] Leclerc finishes ahead of Hamilton

[AUT] Physical Safety Car during the race

[AUT] Yellow flag first lap

[AUT] Bortoleto reaches Q3

[AUT] McLaren 1-2

[AUT] Leclerc finishes ahead of Hamilton

[AUT] Bortoleto finishes top 10

[GBR] Yellow Flag first lap

[GBR] Physical Safety Car during the race

[GBR] McLaren 1-2 (race)

[GBR] Non-McLaren pole position

[GBR] VSR virtual safety car during the race.

[GBR] Gasly finishes in top 10

[BEL] Physical Safety Car during the main race

[BEL] McLaren double podium (main race)

[BEL] Intermediate or wet weather tyres needed for the main race

[BEL] A Ferrari driver doesn't reach Q3 (main race qualifying)

[BEL] Bortoleto reaches Q3 (main race qualifying)

[BEL] Leclerc podium (main race)

[BEL] Bortoleto in the top 10 (main race)

[BEL] Hamilton top 10 (main race)

[HUN] McLaren 1-2 in the race

[HUN] Leclerc finishes ahead of Hamilton in the race

[HUN] Antonelli finishes in the points

[HUN] Bortoleto finishes in the points

[HUN] Both Aston Martins score points

[HUN] Leclerc is in first position at the end of lap 1

[NLD] Physical Safety Car during the race

[NLD] Leclerc finishes ahead of Hamilton (race)

[NLD] Verstappen on the podium

[NLD] Tsunoda finishes in top 10

[ITA] New track record Set in Qualifying

[ITA] Tsunoda reaches Q3

[ITA] Non-McLaren pole position

[ITA] Hamilton finishes in top 6

[AZE] Physical Safety Car during the race

[AZE] Red flag during qualifying

[AZE] Yellow flag First Lap main race

[AZE] Norris and or Piastri Fail to finish due to an accident

[AZE] Tsunoda reaches Q3

[AZE] Non-McLaren pole position

[AZE] Mercedes on the podium (at least 1 driver)

[SGP] Leclerc finishes ahead of Hamilton (race)

[SGP] Bearman finishes in top 10 (race)

[COTA] Yellow flag first lap (main race)

[COTA] Physical Safety Car or Virtual Safety Car during the main race

[COTA] Verstappen wins the sprint race

[COTA] Leclerc finishes ahead of Hamilton (main race)

[COTA] Leclerc finishes on the podium (main race)

[COTA] Bearman finishes in top 10 (main race)

[COTA] Hulkenberg finishes on top 10 (main race)

[MEX] all 3 tyre compounds used in main race

[MEX] Bearman finishes in top 10 (race)

[MEX] At least one Ferrari on the podium

[MEX] Leclerc finishes ahead of Hamilton (race)

[MEX] Max finishes 3rd

[BRA] Physical Safety Car during the main race

[BRA] yellow flag first lap (main race)

[BRA] The same driver wins the Sprint and the GP

[BRA] McLaren pole in the SPRINT qualifying

[BRA] Antonelli Sprint podium

[BRA] Verstappen finishes the main race in the top 6

[BRA] Antonelli podium in the main race

[BRA] Both Racing Bulls finish in top 10 in the main race

[LAS]Verstappen finishes ahead of both McLarens

[LAS] Yellow flag first lap

[LAS] All 3 tyre compounds used in main race

[LAS] Sainz finishes in top 5 (race)

[LAS] Hulkenberg finishes in top 10 (race)

[QAT] Verstappen scores more points than Norris during the whole weekend

[QAT] Alonso scores points in the sprint race

[QAT] Alonso in top 10 (main race)

[ABU] NON-McLaren pole position

[ABU] A Ferrari doesn't reach Q3

[ABU] Physical Safety Car during the race

[ABU] Verstappen wins the GP

[ABU] All 3 tyre compounds used in main race

[ABU] A driver not in WDC contention podiums

[ABU] Bearman finishes in top 10 (race)

Leave it open for upcoming GP

[ABU] Yellow flag first lap

[ABU] Tsunoda finishes in top 10 (race)

[ABU] Someone crashes into the wall and DNFs

[ABU] Both Racing Bulls in top 10 (race)

[ABU] Three different teams on the podium

[MIA] Safety car in the main race

[ABU] Verstappen, Piastri or Norris is involved in a collision causing him to DNF (engine, power unit problems etc. do not count)

[ABU] Norris finishes the race in P4

[BEL] Yellow flag first lap (main race)

[ABU] A driver not in WDC contention wins the race

(JAP) Safety car during the race

(JAP) A rookie crashes and cannot finish the race (technical problems at the gearbox, power unit etc. won't count, it needs to be a crash)

(JAP) Yuki Tsunoda scores points

[JAP] Lawson finishes ahead of Tsunoda

[BAH] Lawson finishes ahead of Tsunoda

[BAH] Ferrari on the podium (at least 1 driver)

[SAU] Mercedes podium (at least 1 driver)

[SAU] McLaren double podium

[SAU] Bearman scores points

[MIA] 🇮🇹 Kimi Antonelli wins the sprint race

[MIA] 🟥 Red flag during main race qualifying

[MIA] Antonelli on the Podium

[IMO] Piastri scores more points than Norris

[IMO] Leclerc finishes ahead of Hamilton (race)

[IMO] Aston Martin both drivers score points

[MON] Physical Safety Car during the race

[MON] Both Mercedes score points (i.e. top 10)

[SPA] Virtual Safety Car during the race

[SPA] Yellow flag first lap

[SPA] Tsunoda goes into Q3

[SPA] Sauber reaches Q3 (at least one driver)

[SPA] someone receives a penalty for obstructing during qualifying

[SPA] Tsunoda finishes in top 10 (race)

[SPA] Hamilton finishes ahead of Leclerc (race)

[SPA] Bortoleto finishes in top 10 (race)

[CAN] Yellow flag first lap

[CAN] Tsunoda reaches Q3

[CAN] Both Williams reach Q3

[CAN] Williams scores over 5.5 WCC points

[AUT] 3 different teams on the podium

[AUT] Tsunoda reaches Q3

[AUT] Stroll reaches Q3

[AUT] Impeding penalty during qualifying

[AUT] Williams scores points (at least one driver)

[AUT] Verstappen penalty for forcing another driver off the track or a collision.

[GBR] Both HAAS cars finish in the points (top 10)

[GBR] Tsunoda reaches Q3

[GBR] Williams reaches Q3 (at least 1 driver)

[GBR] At least one Ferrari on the podium

[GBR] Bearman finishes in top 10

[GBR] At least one Mercedes on the podium

[BEL] Two or more cars DNF (main race)

[BEL] Ferrari in top 3 in the Sprint Qualifying (at least 1 driver)

[BEL] McLaren 1-2 in the Sprint race

[BEL] Verstappen gets a penalty in either the sprint or main race

[BEL] Leclerc on the podium in the sprint race

[BEL] Red flag during qualifying (for the main race)

[BEL] main race is cancelled/aborted

[HUN] Physical Safety Car during the race

[HUN] Impeding penalty during qualifying (at least 1)

[HUN] Tsunoda reaches Q3

[HUN] Yellow flag first lap

[HUN] At least two drivers DNF

[NLD] Impeding penalty during qualifying (at least 1)

[NLD] Exactly 18 cars finish the race

Hamilton finishes in top 7

[NLD] Yellow flag first lap

[NLD] Wet or intermediate tyres used in the main race

[NLD] Tsunoda reaches Q3

[NLD] Antonelli reaches Q3

[NLD] Both Williams reach Q3

[NLD] Red flag during qualifying

[ITA] Physical Safety during the race

[ITA] Impeding penalty during qualifying (at least one)

[ITA] Yellow flag first lap

[ITA] Wet or intermediate tyres needed in Race

[ITA] Both Williams reach Q3

[ITA] Ferrari on the podium (at least one driver)

[AZE] New lap record in Qualifying

[AZE] Leclerc finishes ahead of Hamilton

[AZE] 3 or more DNF (race)

[AZE] Wet or intermediate tyres used in the race.

[SGP] Physical Safety Car during the race

[SGP] Red flag during qualifying

[SGP] Yellow flag first lap

[SGP] 1 or more teams loses both cars in the race

[SGP] Wet or intermediate tyres used in the main race

[SGP] Impeding penalty during qualifying (at least 1)

[SGP] Tsunoda reaches Q3

[SGP] Antonelli on the podium

[SGP] Kick Sauber scores points

[COTA] McLaren pole position in the SPRINT qualifying

[COTA] Hulkenberg top 5 in the sprint race

[COTA] Tsunoda reaches Q3 (main race qualifying)

[COTA] McLaren pole position in the main race qualifying

[COTA] A Ferrari doesn't reach Q3 in the main race qualifying

[COTA] Impeding penalty (at least 1) during main race qualifying

[COTA] Lawson finishes ahead of Tsunoda (main race)

[COTA] Antonelli finishes in top 5 (main race)

[COTA] 6 or more drivers fail to finish the main race

[MEX] Physical Safety Car during the race

[MEX] Red Flag during qualifying

[MEX] Impeding penalty during qualifying

[MEX] Max wins and Oscar finishes 3rd or lower

[MEX] Yuki is send slightly airborne by someone colliding with his right rear tire

[MEX] Yellow flag first lap main race

[MEX] George Russell podium

[MEX] Verstappen takes pole

[MEX] Piastri finishes ahead of Verstappen

[MEX] Red Flag during the Race

[BRA] main race podium is both McLarens and Max in any order

[BRA] a driver from neither McLaren, RBR, Ferrari or Mercedes gets a podium in the main race

[BRA] all three WDC contenders take a part replacement penalty

[BRA] Bortoleto finishes the main race in the points

[BRA] Max finishes the main race ahead of both McLarens

[BRA] Wet or intermediate tyres used in the main race

[BRA] Red flag during qualifying (for the main race)

[BRA] impeding penalty during qualifying (for the main race)

[BRA] McLaren 1-2 in the SPRINT Race

[BRA] Leclerc podium in the main race

[BRA] Alonso finishes in top 10 in the main race

[LAS] Red flag during qualifying

[LAS] Physical safety car during the race

[LAS] Impeding penalty during qualifying

[LAS] Piastri finishes ahead of Norris

[LAS] A Ferrari qualifies in top 4

[LAS] One or more double-DNF (main race)

[LAS] McLaren double podium

[QAT] Verstappen scores 17 points more than Norris over whole weekend

[QAT] Exactly two cars DNF the GP

[QAT] Lando Norris wins WDC

[QAT] Verstappen and Norris make contact in the sprint or main race

[QAT] yellow flag first lap

[QAT] driver disqualified after the main race

[QAT] The same driver wins the Sprint and the main race

[QAT] Tsunoda reaches Q3 of main race qualifying

[QAT] McLaren 1-2 in the sprint race

[QAT] Red flag during main race to clear gravel (no stranded car or significant car parts)

[QAT] Both McLarens touch and at least one of them DNFs because of it

[QAT] Mercedes on the podium (main race)

[QAT] Both Racing Bulls in top 10 (main race)

[QAT] Both Ferraris outside of top 10 (main race)

[ABU] Impeding penalty during qualifying

YES

Place small ice cubes between parchment and pot instead of water

Add 1tsp of diastatic malt powder per 3cps of flour

Use tap water instead of fancy RO water

put butter into it

Toast the bread

Donate the bread to a food pantry, homeless person, or someone else in need

Add lots of butter (0.2 ml per gram)

Bake it with your best friend.

Bake for 5 more minutes

Replace all water spritz steps with a basting of extra virgin olive oil.

Diastatic malt (~1% baker's percentage) = happier yeast

Serve the bread hot

Stretch-and-fold after mixing, 3x every 30 min

Create indentation, fill with melted cheese and butter

Improve the bread

Just freeze the ready bread, then slowly bake it until it’s hot inside. It will give you a crustier crumb, contain less moisture, and taste better.

Bake for 15 more minutes

Use sourdough instead of yeast

Don't eat anything for at least 24 hours before eating the bread

Cut into the dough right before baking looks destructive to improve the appearance

Sell your bread at an auction and donate the money to those in immigration detention prisons.

3 iterations of stretch-and-fold, at any time during the 14h waiting period. Minimum wait time between iterations 1 hour

Autolyse 20 minutes

Make the bread taste good

Do it with a good spirit in your heart, or ask someone with a good spirit to do it for you. But don’t watch while they do it.

Do a second rise

Don't eat anything for at least 48 hours before eating the bread

Give Gemini your current recipe as well your take on what optimal bread tastes like, then take that advice for your next bake

Try baking a little more "bien cuit". If the image is indicative, your loaves may be quite "blonde".

Sprinkle sesame seeds evenly over the top

Short advice: Start baking at 260°C for strong rise, then reduce to 230°C and uncover halfway to achieve even browning and a crisp crust. 🍞

replace 10% of flour with farina bona

Sprinkle 3 grams of flaky sea salt on top of each loaf before the second bake

Replace some of the water with an egg (eg. remove 25g of water for a 50g egg)

Add slurs to it

Want to improve the value of your bread? Simply bake a piece of gold into it

Watch the video

Use whole wheat to improve the nutrition of the bread

Make banana bread

Start at 500F, drop to 450F and uncover half way through

Invest in a "Bakers Steel" for better heat retention and oven spring. It would mean graduating from a dutch oven though.

If your city uses artesian water, replace plastic bottled water with tap water. It will add natural, healthy alkalinity to your bread.

Bread flour, 3x yeast, cut rise to ~3h

Eat the bread while punching @realDonaldTrump in the face

Eat the bread while watching your mana balance steadily tick to (M)0

Throw the bread at a telescope

Cut bread into loaves before serving

Cut bread into ≤0.4inch slices, toast before serving

Invite your taste-testers to make the bread with you

Tarriff the bread-making process with a 10% reduction of all ingredients where actual physical money is required to purchase them, until it “shrinkflates,” but try to keep the same volume. Do not reduce any free ingredients.

Replace 10% of flour with milled wheat bran

Add garlic

Do all the changes in the top 5 open options by probability, excluding this option

Give ChatGPT your current recipe as well your take on what optimal bread tastes like, then take that advice for your next bake

Replace part of the flour in the dough with freshly crushed hemp seeds. It will make the bread a little bit sweeter, especially appealing for Canadians.

Add melatonin to the bread and eat before you sleep (do safely)

Let dough sit 48 hrs

Increase water by 50 g

While the bread is baking, tip every user who voted "Yes" on this option 25 Mana

Use a food-grade, human-approved vitamin D supplement in the correct dosage for testers with vitamin D deficiency

Use a convection oven/setting

Add 6.25±1.25 g lemon juice when mixing in water to yeast and salt jug

Put a baking rack in the Dutch oven before putting the loaf in, raising the loaf off the floor and lofting it over a layer of air.

Cover bread with damp paper towel instead of initial water spritz. Rehydrate paper towel during 2nd spritz. Remove paper towel before placing on cooling rack.

Brush on an egg wash

Make the bread great again

Bake for an amount of minutes equal to the percent this market answer is at when it comes time to begin baking. (Maintain the ±3 minute tolerances and the 2:1 ratio of time before:after the water spritz.)

Decompose it into infinite spheres, then a few parts per sphere, rotate the spheres by arccos(1/3), unite them and you will find 2 chilis (Banach-Tarski)

Ditch current process, do everything the same as the video

Bake the Manifold Crane into the Bread

Make the bread edible then throw it in

Drink vodka while eating the bread

Do FOLDED

Quit Manifold into the bread.

Kill the bread into Manifold.

Assume the chili is not in the interval [0,1], square it for more chili, if it is in (0,1), take the square root, else (equals 0 or 1) add 1 to it.

Assume the chili is in the interval (0,1), square it for less chili, if it is in (1,infinity) take the square root, if it is in (-infinity,0) take the negative of the square of the of the chile, else (equals 0 or 1) subtract 1 from it.

Don't automatically "Heat water to 30±1 °C". Instead, aim for a desired dough temperature (DDT) of 25-26°C. 30°C water is too hot for summer, and potentially too cool for winter.

Add a tablespoon of sugar

it needs more salt

Bake one more minute

Strawberry jelly filling

Add caffeine to the bread

Bake the bread into a fun shape, like a fish, or an octagon

Make naan bread, an easy-to-make bread

Grind/powderize all salt used into a fine powder (with pestle & mortar or similar device)

Cook the bread with a rod/puck of aluminum foil (or similar) in the core in an attempt to conduct heat through the center of the bread, cooking it evenly like a doughnut.

Instead of RO water, use lightly rusty water to improve the nutritional value of the bread with soluble iron.

Have someone sell the bread to you at an expensive price

Bake vegimite into it.

Only use tap water from specifically New York City

Ask yourself if bread is healthier than fruits? No need to improve my bread

Resolve at least one thing here yes or no while baking bread

Make all of the ingredients from scratch.

Wear a suit while baking the cake.

Use lemonade instead of water.

Encourage people to participate in the market in good faith while making the bread

Half yeast

Replace salt with sugar

Use flour made from an unconventional grain e.g. barley, millet, oats, rye, sorghum, maize etc.

A system view is more appropriate. This is a dynamic, multi-variate, biological and chemical system. For e.g. conditioning salt % AND yeast % AND water temperature based on ingredient and ambient temps.

Give the bread a name in a ritual ceremony and baptise it, with pre-blessed holy water if a priest isn't available

Add 1/2 cup yogurt to the bread and name the bread “gurt” while addressing it with “yo, gurt”.

Get your friends to help you make a batch ten times the size, but add a Pepper X (2.7M Scoville heat units) to the mixture

Only buy ingredients from 7/11.

Mail the bread to 1600 Pennsylvania Ave. Washington D.C.

Ship a piece of the bread to a random person.

Frost it and put sprinkles on it to make it a birthday cake.

Buy bread from a michelin star restaurant.

Replace 600+/-5g water with 600+/-50g water (eyeball rather than carefully measure)

Quadruple salt

Add 1/2 scoop whey protein powder

Bake your social security number into it.

Bake one fewer minute

Bake the cake while wearing a onesie.

Bake for 5 fewer minutes

Put a non-lethal dose of any rat poison.

Test/filter the water for heavy metals

Pray to your preferred agricultural/food deity before baking and before eating

Eat the bread in front of the White House.

Implement all options that resolved NO

Make the bread inedible then throw it out.

Throw the bread at @realDonaldTrump

Force Feed it to @realDonaldTrump

Cut the bread into the number of traders in the market slices.

make the bread bounce

Bake vodka into it

Implementing every element listed below.

Just make donuts instead

Bake it in an easy bake kids oven

Add as many Jack Daniel's whiskey barrel smoking chips as feasible to the Dutch oven before baking, physically separating them from the bread as necessary while baking.

Use a plastic baking sheet.

Eat the bread while betting yes on Cuomo on Manifold

Double oven temperature

Bake the bread very thin and add food coloring to make it have the US flag. Don’t allow it to touch the ground, illuminate at night, fold 13 times properly, and pledge allegiance before eating.

Don’t use usual water (room temperature) for the dough - that water’s only for toilets. Use electrolyte drinks instead with ice cubes; they make the dough taste better and add extra nutrition.

Add a pinch of sugar

Light it on fire with birthday candles.

Bake it with a microwave

Halve oven temperature

Eat the bread while betting yes on Mamdani on Manifold

Step on it

Bring it to Yemen and put a bomb in it

Bake America Great Again

Sacrifice a lamb

Add MAGA and a splash of Trump juice

Bake in a cat and a dog

Explode it:

5 parts cyanide/ 1 part water/ 1 part sand

say 6 7 67 times before making the bread

Take a fat dump in the dough

Sit in dough 24 hrs

Replace flour with flowers

Let dough sit 24 hrs

Mix half sodium/potassium chloride

Add 2g? of baking soda

Bake in rectangular tin

Add 50g vital wheat gluten

double yeast

halve salt

Double salt

Add 2tsp olive oil

Refrigerate dough instead of room temp wait

Do not mix salt and yeast in water together

Let dough rise on counter only until double volume or 2h max, any time longer in fridge

Think positive thoughts before tasting

Put fork in microwave

Don't eat anything for at least 12 hours before eating the bread

Add 2tbsp vanilla extract

Play classical music while baking

Bake on upside-down sheet pan, covered with Dutch oven

Eat the bread with friends

Bake it in the country you were born in.

Resolve this option YES while eating the bread

Ditch all the steps. Just buy the bread from the supermarket

Eat the bread over the course of a week.

Use 50% whole grain flour

Bake the bread with love

Use King Arthur Bread Flour instead of All-Purpose

Add sawdust to increase the volume of the bread (but only like 10% sawdust by volume max. maybe 20% if it's good sawdust)

More steam! Either spritz with more water (preferably hot) or actually pour some boiling water in just before closing the lid.

Resolve this option NO while eating the bread

Incorporate a whole grain flour (buckwheat for example)

Add 50g sugar

Add 50g honey

Swap 200ml water for milk

Make a poolish 12 h ahead: 100 g flour + 100 g water + 0.8 g yeast (0.1 %). After it ferments, use this poolish in place of 100 g flour and 100 g water in the final dough.

Add an amount of MSG equivalent to half the current salt content

Eat the bread while sending all your mana to @realDonaldTrump

Add banana

Max Verstappen

Lando Norris

George Russell

Fernando Alonso

Oscar Piastri

Other

Lewis Hamilton

Charles Leclerc

Carlos Sainz

Alex Albon

Sergio Perez

No trophy awarded in 2026

Proposal: representative security council! Add at least one member with <20k net worth

Proposal: Donate it all to MSF / Doctors without Borders

ACCEPTED: Don't use the bomb before it reaches 10K (minimum)

Proposal: add @Stralor to the security council

ACCEPTED: Donate 50% to GiveWell, 50% to Internet Archive

Donate to Mriya https://manifold.markets/ArtemAvramenko/will-the-mriya-fund-raise-2-million?r=TG9yZWxhaQ

Donate 34% to give well, 33 % to internet archive, 33% to mriya

Proposal: don't use the bomb until it reaches 20k mana kilotons

Proposal: Loan Tumbles 1000 mana to add to the bounty, then add Tumbles to the security council

Proposal: Add @SanghyeonSeo to the security council

Proposal: add @Joshua as a member of the security council

Proposal: Bet it on YES for Michelle Obama winning the 2024 presidential election

Proposal: Donate it all to Givewell (PASSED AWAITING APPROVAL)

Proposal: add @odoacre to the security council

Proposal: Bet YES on the first Yes or No market posted after 1 AM EST on March 9th

Proposal: Vow not to use the bomb on whalebait markets

Proposal: EMERGENCY BACKUP BOMB - donate it all to internet archive in case of pivot backfire

Proposal: Loan it all to @retr0id for 1 month, at 10% monthly interest

Proposal: Bet it all on coinflip markets (51% YES) and see how many times it ~doubles

Proposal: the security council must have at least 3 members to arm the bomb

Drop a 1 kiloton "shot across the bow" spirit bomb directly on the new manifold government https://manifold.markets/bens/will-i-receive-the-mandate-of-the-p

Proposal: Boost Bomb, spend the mana boosting question(s) to be determined

Proposal: Whale Bomb: Use the bomb on a whalebait market

Proposal: a member of the security counsel can be voted off with a supermajority of its members >66%

Proposal: True Love Bomb, spread the mana by making large bets on markets with <3 traders or markets created by new users

Proposal: Create a ticking mechanism with a mana goal and a deadline, such that either: 1) the deadline is reached and the bomb is detonated, or 2) the mana goal is reached and the deadline is extended

Proposal: Give 10% to @geuber_

Proposal: add @AmmonLam to the security council

Proposal: Use it to develop a rival “Coolfold Partner Program,” award it as bounties to promising new/cool market creators

Proposal: Add @Tumbles to the security council

Proposal: Donate it all to Poker Night on Manifund

Proposal: Use the mana to buy tickets for Manifest for spirit bomb contributors who are able to make it

Proposal: Bet it on LK-99 superconductor market (YES or NO to be decided).

add @AbhinavSrinivas to the security council

Proposal: add @KongoLandwalker to the security counsil

Proposal: Cursed Boost Bomb, use it to boost the most cursed/annoying market to impact the feed of every user for days to come

Proposal: Subsidy Bomb, put the mana into one specific market, target to be determined

ACCEPTED: don't use the bomb before it reaches 5K (minimum)

ACCEPTED: require a contribution of at least 1000M for any future member to be considered for the security council

DUPLICATE - NA

ACCEPTED: security council candidates must have 20 YES positions for them to be considered

ACCEPTED: Proposed security council members cannot be considered without reaching 100% YES at some point after having 20 unique YES positions.

ACCEPTED: Proposals need at least 10 more Yes positions than NO positions to be considered (YES positions minus NO positions must be 10 or more)

ACCEPTED: All proposals must have at least 80% to be considered

ACCEPTED: proposals can be cancelled if there are 10 more NO positions than YES positions (they can be resubmitted though)

ACCEPTED: Proposed security council members cannot be considered without reaching 95% YES at some point after having 20 unique YES positions. (amending previous 100%)

ACCEPTED: change approval for resolutions to 95%, and a difference of 20 Y to N for sec council member proposals

Proposal: Poker bomb - use it to fund a massive prize pool for a coolfold poker event

Proposal: Max out a specific Manifund project (TBD)

Proposal: add @stefanie as a member of the security council

Proposal: Distribute among active players in Bronze

Proposal: Poll bomb - give chris enough mana to finish hogwarts/trump polls :)

Proposal: Stochastic Bomb: use it to make as many markets about Jose Luis Ricon and StochasticParrot as possible

Proposal: use the bomb to disrupt manifold politics conditional markets.

Proposal: Use the bomb to create a multiple choice market with 100 answers, and pour the rest into boosting it

Proposal: repeal the ban on using the bomb before it reaches 5K mana

Proposal: add a random number generator to the security council

Proposal: Disarm the bomb until April 2nd 2024

Proposal: Immolation Bomb to protest the pivot

Proposal: Disarmament & Peace, permanently deactivate the bomb

Proposal: Love Bomb, spread the mana from the bomb as subsidy among the top 100 markets on browse

Proposal: block another user's limit order on a specific market, target TBD (ie: set up a new large Limit Order that is slightly below/above theirs)

Proposal: Vow not to use the bomb on any small creators or their markets, without their permission (<1000 traders)

Proposal: Found a Republican PAC to make election predictions on Manifold more accurate

Proposal: Distribute it to all the users that contributed to it evenly

Proposal: the greed ending, split the bomb evenly among members of the security council

Shohei Ohtani

Other

Max Verstappen

Mondo Duplantis

Josh Allen

Caitlin Clark

Juan Soto

Patrick Mahomes

Lionel Messi

Jalen Hurts

Saquon Barkley

Lamine Yamal

K. Somebody discovers a new AI paradigm that's powerful enough and matures fast enough to beat deep learning to the punch, and the new paradigm is much much more alignable than giant inscrutable matrices of floating-point numbers.

I. The tech path to AGI superintelligence is naturally slow enough and gradual enough, that world-destroyingly-critical alignment problems never appear faster than previous discoveries generalize to allow safe further experimentation.

C. Solving prosaic alignment on the first critical try is not as difficult, nor as dangerous, nor taking as much extra time, as Yudkowsky predicts; whatever effort is put forth by the leading coalition works inside of their lead time.

Something wonderful happens that isn't well-described by any option listed. (The semantics of this option may change if other options are added.)

A. Humanity successfully coordinates worldwide to prevent the creation of powerful AGIs for long enough to develop human intelligence augmentation, uploading, or some other pathway into transcending humanity's window of fragility.

B. Humanity puts forth a tremendous effort, and delays AI for long enough, and puts enough desperate work into alignment, that alignment gets solved first.

D. Early powerful AGIs realize that they wouldn't be able to align their own future selves/successors if their intelligence got raised further, and work honestly with humans on solving the problem in a way acceptable to both factions.

M. "We'll make the AI do our AI alignment homework" just works as a plan. (Eg the helping AI doesn't need to be smart enough to be deadly; the alignment proposals that most impress human judges are honest and truthful and successful.)

O. Early applications of AI/AGI drastically increase human civilization's sanity and coordination ability; enabling humanity to solve alignment, or slow down further descent into AGI, etc. (Not in principle mutex with all other answers.)

E. Whatever strange motivations end up inside an unalignable AGI, or the internal slice through that AGI which codes its successor, they max out at a universe full of cheerful qualia-bearing life and an okay outcome for existing humans.

F. Somebody pulls off a hat trick involving blah blah acausal blah blah simulations blah blah, or other amazingly clever idea, which leads an AGI to put the reachable galaxies to good use despite that AGI not being otherwise alignable.

J. Something 'just works' on the order of eg: train a predictive/imitative/generative AI on a human-generated dataset, and RLHF her to be unfailingly nice, generous to weaker entities, and determined to make the cosmos a lovely place.

H. Many competing AGIs form an equilibrium whereby no faction is allowed to get too powerful, and humanity is part of this equilibrium and survives and gets a big chunk of cosmic pie.

G. It's impossible/improbable for something sufficiently smarter and more capable than modern humanity to be created, that it can just do whatever without needing humans to cooperate; nor does it successfully cheat/trick us.

L. Earth's present civilization crashes before powerful AGI, and the next civilization that rises is wiser and better at ops. (Exception to 'okay' as defined originally, will be said to count as 'okay' even if many current humans die.)

N. A crash project at augmenting human intelligence via neurotech, training mentats via neurofeedback, etc, produces people who can solve alignment before it's too late, despite Earth civ not slowing AI down much.

You are fooled by at least one option on this list, which out of many tries, ends up sufficiently well-aimed at your personal ideals / prejudices / the parts you understand less well / your own personal indulgences in wishful thinking.

YES

NO

iPhone 17 Air

iPhone 17 mini

iPhone 18

iPhone 18 Pro

iPhone 19

iPhone 18 Pro Max

iPhone 17 Max

iPhone 17 Air Max

iPhone 17 Pro

iPhone 18 mini

iPhone 18 Max

iPhone 18 Air

iPhone 18 Air Max

iPhone 19 Steve Jobs Edition™ (mini)

iPhone 19 Max

iPhone 19 Air

iPhone 19 Air Max

iPhone 19 Pro

iPhone 19 Pro Max

iPhone 17

Max Martin

Aaron Dessner

Shellback