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OptionProbability
J. Something 'just works' on the order of eg: train a predictive/imitative/generative AI on a human-generated dataset, and RLHF her to be unfailingly nice, generous to weaker entities, and determined to make the cosmos a lovely place.
M. "We'll make the AI do our AI alignment homework" just works as a plan. (Eg the helping AI doesn't need to be smart enough to be deadly; the alignment proposals that most impress human judges are honest and truthful and successful.)
Something wonderful happens that isn't well-described by any option listed. (The semantics of this option may change if other options are added.)
O. Early applications of AI/AGI drastically increase human civilization's sanity and coordination ability; enabling humanity to solve alignment, or slow down further descent into AGI, etc. (Not in principle mutex with all other answers.)
C. Solving prosaic alignment on the first critical try is not as difficult, nor as dangerous, nor taking as much extra time, as Yudkowsky predicts; whatever effort is put forth by the leading coalition works inside of their lead time.
H. Many competing AGIs form an equilibrium whereby no faction is allowed to get too powerful, and humanity is part of this equilibrium and survives and gets a big chunk of cosmic pie.
K. Somebody discovers a new AI paradigm that's powerful enough and matures fast enough to beat deep learning to the punch, and the new paradigm is much much more alignable than giant inscrutable matrices of floating-point numbers.
B. Humanity puts forth a tremendous effort, and delays AI for long enough, and puts enough desperate work into alignment, that alignment gets solved first.
G. It's impossible/improbable for something sufficiently smarter and more capable than modern humanity to be created, that it can just do whatever without needing humans to cooperate; nor does it successfully cheat/trick us.
F. Somebody pulls off a hat trick involving blah blah acausal blah blah simulations blah blah, or other amazingly clever idea, which leads an AGI to put the reachable galaxies to good use despite that AGI not being otherwise alignable.
I. The tech path to AGI superintelligence is naturally slow enough and gradual enough, that world-destroyingly-critical alignment problems never appear faster than previous discoveries generalize to allow safe further experimentation.
D. Early powerful AGIs realize that they wouldn't be able to align their own future selves/successors if their intelligence got raised further, and work honestly with humans on solving the problem in a way acceptable to both factions.
A. Humanity successfully coordinates worldwide to prevent the creation of powerful AGIs for long enough to develop human intelligence augmentation, uploading, or some other pathway into transcending humanity's window of fragility.
E. Whatever strange motivations end up inside an unalignable AGI, or the internal slice through that AGI which codes its successor, they max out at a universe full of cheerful qualia-bearing life and an okay outcome for existing humans.
If you write an argument that breaks down the 'okay outcomes' into lots of distinct categories, without breaking down internal conjuncts and so on, Reality is very impressed with how disjunctive this sounds and allocates more probability.
L. Earth's present civilization crashes before powerful AGI, and the next civilization that rises is wiser and better at ops. (Exception to 'okay' as defined originally, will be said to count as 'okay' even if many current humans die.)
N. A crash project at augmenting human intelligence via neurotech, training mentats via neurofeedback, etc, produces people who can solve alignment before it's too late, despite Earth civ not slowing AI down much.
You are fooled by at least one option on this list, which out of many tries, ends up sufficiently well-aimed at your personal ideals / prejudices / the parts you understand less well / your own personal indulgences in wishful thinking.
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10
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6
6
4
4
3
1
1
1
0
0
0
OptionVotes
YES
NO
53554
1967
OptionProbability
Stretch-and-fold after mixing, 3x every 30 min
3 iterations of stretch-and-fold, at any time during the 14h waiting period. Minimum wait time between iterations 1 hour
Place small ice cubes between parchment and pot instead of water
Add 1tsp of diastatic malt powder per 3cps of flour
Use tap water instead of fancy RO water
put butter into it
Toast the bread
Put a non-lethal dose of any rat poison.
Donate the bread to a food pantry, homeless person, or someone else in need
Add lots of butter (0.2 ml per gram)
Half yeast
Bake it with your best friend.
Use whole wheat to improve the nutrition of the bread
Bake for 5 more minutes
Bake for an amount of minutes equal to the percent this market answer is at when it comes time to begin baking. (Maintain the ±3 minute tolerances and the 2:1 ratio of time before:after the water spritz.)
Sprinkle 3 grams of flaky sea salt on top of each loaf before the second bake
Increase water by 50 g
it needs more salt
Replace all water spritz steps with a basting of extra virgin olive oil.
Diastatic malt (~1% baker's percentage) = happier yeast
Serve the bread hot
Use Iodized salt
Do a second rise
Don't eat anything for at least 48 hours before eating the bread
Create indentation, fill with melted cheese and butter
Use sourdough instead of yeast
Sprinkle sesame seeds evenly over the top
don't eat anything for at least 2400 hours before eating the bread
Add garlic
Cut into the dough right before baking looks destructive to improve the appearance
Sell your bread at an auction and donate the money to those in immigration detention prisons.
Do it with a good spirit in your heart, or ask someone with a good spirit to do it for you. But don’t watch while they do it.
Give ChatGPT your current recipe as well your take on what optimal bread tastes like, then take that advice for your next bake
Just freeze the ready bread, then slowly bake it until it’s hot inside. It will give you a crustier crumb, contain less moisture, and taste better.
Strawberry jelly filling
Do all the changes in the top 5 open options by probability, excluding this option
Add an amount of non-smoked paprika equal to the current salt content
Short advice: Start baking at 260°C for strong rise, then reduce to 230°C and uncover halfway to achieve even browning and a crisp crust. 🍞
Don't automatically "Heat water to 30±1 °C". Instead, aim for a desired dough temperature (DDT) of 25-26°C. 30°C water is too hot for summer, and potentially too cool for winter.
Use the same dough bake it as focaccia. Flat with EVOO added during shaped rise and baste with EVOO instead of spraying water during baking.
put ketchup and cheese on it
Add slurs to it
Make all of the ingredients from scratch.
Ask ChatGPT (GPT-5, with thinking enabled) for suggestions on improving the bread, with this market description, then do all of them.
Get recipe from gemini with experiments done, taste preference, then confirm it with chatgpt for final suggestion.
Don't eat anything for at least 24 hours before eating the bread
Try baking a little more "bien cuit". If the image is indicative, your loaves may be quite "blonde".
Substitute 75 g of your flour with spelt flour
Make the bread taste good
Put a baking rack in the Dutch oven before putting the loaf in, raising the loaf off the floor and lofting it over a layer of air.
Buy bread from a michelin star restaurant.
Invest in a "Bakers Steel" for better heat retention and oven spring. It would mean graduating from a dutch oven though.
If your city uses artesian water, replace plastic bottled water with tap water. It will add natural, healthy alkalinity to your bread.
throw your recipe into a black box Bayesian hyperparameter optimization framework and iterate as necessary (see the Google Vizier Cookie Recipe paper for example
Watch the video
Ditch current process, do everything the same as the video
Bread flour, 3x yeast, cut rise to ~3h
Use lemonade instead of water.
Eat the bread while punching @realDonaldTrump in the face
Eat the bread while watching your mana balance steadily tick to (M)0
Throw the bread at a telescope
Cut bread into loaves before serving
Cut bread into ≤0.4inch slices, toast before serving
Invite your taste-testers to make the bread with you
Tarriff the bread-making process with a 10% reduction of all ingredients where actual physical money is required to purchase them, until it “shrinkflates,” but try to keep the same volume. Do not reduce any free ingredients.
Standardize a separate list of process features to keep track of independently of all other tests and use the cross entropy method to tune them to maximize your bread preference
Taste the bread
put oats on top of the dough just before baking, press them in so they don't fall off
Buy chemical bread improvers
Add 6.25±1.25 g lemon juice when mixing in water to yeast and salt jug
add 'gunpowder' (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Idli_podi)
Make banana bread
Add 1/2 scoop whey protein powder
Replace part of the flour in the dough with freshly crushed hemp seeds. It will make the bread a little bit sweeter, especially appealing for Canadians.
Add cheese inside it and also sausage
Add melatonin to the bread and eat before you sleep (do safely)
Eat it slowly and focus on the taste
While the bread is baking, tip every user who voted "Yes" on this option 25 Mana
Use a food-grade, human-approved vitamin D supplement in the correct dosage for testers with vitamin D deficiency
Use a convection oven/setting
Keep the bread in a high quality expensive beeswax coated textile bag
Complete 5 items from your to-do list while the bread is rising
Make the bread great again
Mix only flour and water. Wait 30–60 minutes. Then mix in yeast and salt.
Add caffeine to the bread
Use soda instead of water (clear, orange, yellow, etc. soda is ok. Don’t use a purple/brown soda as that would make it not look good)
Butter resolved yes twice. Double butter again.
Decompose it into infinite spheres, then a few parts per sphere, rotate the spheres by arccos(1/3), unite them and you will find 2 chilis (Banach-Tarski)
Give Gemini your current recipe as well your take on what optimal bread tastes like, then take that advice for your next bake
Bake the Manifold Crane into the Bread
Make the bread edible then throw it in
Drink vodka while eating the bread
Bake the bread into a fun shape, like a fish, or an octagon
Do FOLDED
Quit Manifold into the bread.
Kill the bread into Manifold.
Assume the chili is not in the interval [0,1], square it for more chili, if it is in (0,1), take the square root, else (equals 0 or 1) add 1 to it.
Assume the chili is in the interval (0,1), square it for less chili, if it is in (1,infinity) take the square root, if it is in (-infinity,0) take the negative of the square of the of the chile, else (equals 0 or 1) subtract 1 from it.
Add 2 tbsp vanilla cake mix
Replace AP with bread flour and cruelly mix the dough in the mixer until elastic and not sticky
Add a tablespoon of sugar
Bake one more minute
Follow a recipe online
Grind/powderize all salt used into a fine powder (with pestle & mortar or similar device)
Instead of RO water, use lightly rusty water to improve the nutritional value of the bread with soluble iron.
Add at least 20% chic pea flour or some other type of high protein flour
Knead it only 10 times, keep it round like this number
Ask yourself if bread is healthier than fruits? No need to improve my bread
Bake for 15 more minutes
Resolve at least one thing here yes or no while baking bread
A system view is more appropriate. This is a dynamic, multi-variate, biological and chemical system. For e.g. conditioning salt % AND yeast % AND water temperature based on ingredient and ambient temps.
Wear a suit while baking the cake.
Encourage people to participate in the market in good faith while making the bread
Replace salt with sugar
replace 10% of flour with farina bona
Have someone sell the bread to you at an expensive price
Only buy ingredients from 7/11.
Cook the bread with a rod/puck of aluminum foil (or similar) in the core in an attempt to conduct heat through the center of the bread, cooking it evenly like a doughnut.
Get your friends to help you make a batch ten times the size, but add a Pepper X (2.7M Scoville heat units) to the mixture
Replace 10% of flour with milled wheat bran
Slowly add sawdust to the bread until your friends start to notice.
Replace all water spritz steps with a basting of gravy that includes chicken stock
Mail the bread to 1600 Pennsylvania Ave. Washington D.C.
Replace 600+/-5g water with 600+/-50g water (eyeball rather than carefully measure)
Pray to your preferred agricultural/food deity before baking and before eating
Soak the finished product in vinegar for 24 hours
Ship a piece of the bread to a random person.
Frost it and put sprinkles on it to make it a birthday cake.
Add as many Jack Daniel's whiskey barrel smoking chips as feasible to the Dutch oven before baking, physically separating them from the bread as necessary while baking.
Give the bread a name in a ritual ceremony and baptise it, with pre-blessed holy water if a priest isn't available
Improve the bread
Quadruple salt
Combine all answers that are unresolved at the time you try this one
Bake your social security number into it.
Bake one fewer minute
Bake the cake while wearing a onesie.
Test/filter the water for heavy metals
Eat the bread in front of the White House.
Implement all options that resolved NO
Make the bread inedible then throw it out.
Throw the bread at @realDonaldTrump
Force Feed it to @realDonaldTrump
Cut the bread into the number of traders in the market slices.
make the bread bounce
Implementing every element listed below.
Just make donuts instead
Bake it in an easy bake kids oven
Use a plastic baking sheet.
Eat the bread while betting yes on Cuomo on Manifold
Double oven temperature
Bake the bread very thin and add food coloring to make it have the US flag. Don’t allow it to touch the ground, illuminate at night, fold 13 times properly, and pledge allegiance before eating.
Don’t use usual water (room temperature) for the dough - that water’s only for toilets. Use electrolyte drinks instead with ice cubes; they make the dough taste better and add extra nutrition.
Light it on fire with birthday candles.
Bake it with a microwave
Halve oven temperature
Eat the bread while betting yes on Mamdani on Manifold
Step on it
Bring it to Yemen and put a bomb in it
Bake America Great Again
Sacrifice a lamb
Add MAGA and a splash of Trump juice
Bake in a cat and a dog
Explode it:
5 parts cyanide/ 1 part water/ 1 part sand
say 6 7 67 times before making the bread
Take a fat dump in the dough
Sit in dough 24 hrs
Replace flour with flowers
Let dough sit 24 hrs
Mix half sodium/potassium chloride
Add 2g? of baking soda
Bake in rectangular tin
Add 50g vital wheat gluten
double yeast
halve salt
Double salt
Add 2tsp olive oil
Refrigerate dough instead of room temp wait
Start at 500F, drop to 450F and uncover half way through
Do not mix salt and yeast in water together
Autolyse 20 minutes
Let dough rise on counter only until double volume or 2h max, any time longer in fridge
Think positive thoughts before tasting
Put fork in microwave
Don't eat anything for at least 12 hours before eating the bread
Add 2tbsp vanilla extract
Play classical music while baking
Make naan bread, an easy-to-make bread
Add a pinch of sugar
Bake on upside-down sheet pan, covered with Dutch oven
Eat the bread with friends
Bake vegimite into it.
Bake vodka into it
Bake it in the country you were born in.
Let dough sit 48 hrs
Resolve this option YES while eating the bread
Ditch all the steps. Just buy the bread from the supermarket
Eat the bread over the course of a week.
Bake for 5 fewer minutes
Use 50% whole grain flour
Bake the bread with love
Use King Arthur Bread Flour instead of All-Purpose
Add sawdust to increase the volume of the bread (but only like 10% sawdust by volume max. maybe 20% if it's good sawdust)
More steam! Either spritz with more water (preferably hot) or actually pour some boiling water in just before closing the lid.
Resolve this option NO while eating the bread
Incorporate a whole grain flour (buckwheat for example)
Add 50g sugar
Add 50g honey
Swap 200ml water for milk
Cover bread with damp paper towel instead of initial water spritz. Rehydrate paper towel during 2nd spritz. Remove paper towel before placing on cooling rack.
Make a poolish 12 h ahead: 100 g flour + 100 g water + 0.8 g yeast (0.1 %). After it ferments, use this poolish in place of 100 g flour and 100 g water in the final dough.
Add an amount of MSG equivalent to half the current salt content
Use flour made from an unconventional grain e.g. barley, millet, oats, rye, sorghum, maize etc.
Eat the bread while sending all your mana to @realDonaldTrump
Add 1/2 cup yogurt to the bread and name the bread “gurt” while addressing it with “yo, gurt”.
Add banana
Add poppy seeds
Replace some of the water with an egg (eg. remove 25g of water for a 50g egg)
Only use tap water from specifically New York City
Want to improve the value of your bread? Simply bake a piece of gold into it
Brush on an egg wash
100
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89
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73
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69
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62
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10
9
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6
6
6
6
6
5
5
5
5
5
3
3
2
2
2
2
2
2
1
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
OptionProbability
Jim Chalmers
Andrew Charlton
Tanya Plibersek
Pauline Hanson
Patrick Gorman
Chris Bowen
Angus Taylor
Andrew Hastie
Sussan Ley
Paul Fletcher
Amanda Rishworth
Bill Shorten
Michelle Rowland
Matt Thistlethwaite
Catherine King
Julie Collins
Clare O'Neil
Jacinta Nampijinpa Price
Josh Frydenberg
Mark Dreyfus
Andrew Leigh
Phillip Thompson
Richard Marles
Jason Clare
Stephen Bates
Penny Wong
Ed Husic
Dan Tehan
Angie Bell
James McGrath
Tony Burke
Anika Wells
James Paterson
Linda Burney
Andrew Giles
Elizabeth Watson-Brown
Michael Sukkar
Robbie Katter
Clive Palmer
Adam Bandt
Peter Dutton
Barnaby Joyce
Max Chandler-Mather
50
42
40
32
28
27
26
25
20
20
20
20
20
20
18
18
17
16
16
15
15
14
14
14
14
14
13
11
11
11
11
11
10
10
10
10
9
8
7
6
5
5
5
OptionProbability
Max Holloway
Nate Diaz
Michael Chandler
Illia Topuria
99
59
20
20
OptionProbability
Shohei Ohtani
Rory McIlroy
Joe Burrow
Erling Haaland
Aaron Judge
Giannis Antetokounmpo
Patrick Mahomes
Mookie Betts
Jylian Mbappe
Nikola Jokić
Viktor Hovland
Max Verstappen
Lamar Jackson
Giancarlo Stanton
Tyreek Hill
Joel Embiid
Cooper Kupp
Jon Rahm
Karim Benzema
Furkan Korkmaz
Sidney Crosby
LeBron James
Alexander Ovechkin
Stephen Curry
Mike Trout
Kyrie Irving
CJ McCollum
Lionel Messi
Kevin Durant
Miguel Cabrera
Fernando Alonso
Tiger Woods
Justin Verlander
Cristiano Ronaldo
Max Scherzer
Novak Djokovic
Neymar
93
90
89
89
87
86
85
83
82
80
76
75
67
66
66
66
66
50
50
50
50
46
43
40
38
34
34
29
27
24
24
20
16
15
10
7
6
OptionProbability
Michigan's 8th district (McDonald Rivet-D)
Ohio's 1st district (Landsman-D)
Minnesota's 2nd district (OPEN-D)
Nebraska's 2nd district (OPEN-R)
Pennsylvania's 7th district (Mackenzie-R)
Pennsylvania's 10th district (Perry-R)
Michigan's 7th district (Barrett-R)
Ohio's 9th district (Kaptur-D)
Iowa's 1st district (Miller-Meeks-R)
Iowa's 3st district (Nunn-R)
Wisconsin's 3rd district (Van Orden-R)
Michigan's 10th district (OPEN-R)
Pennsylvania's 8th district (Bresnehan-R)
Iowa's 2st district (OPEN-R)
Wisconsin's 1st district (Steil-R)
Michigan's 4th district (Huizenga-R)
Minnesota's 1st district (Finstad-R)
Ohio's 10th district (Turner-R)
Ohio’s 7th congressional district(Max Miller-R)
89
87
79
78
76
70
66
65
64
64
61
56
56
49
38
37
29
27
27
OptionProbability
K. Somebody discovers a new AI paradigm that's powerful enough and matures fast enough to beat deep learning to the punch, and the new paradigm is much much more alignable than giant inscrutable matrices of floating-point numbers.
I. The tech path to AGI superintelligence is naturally slow enough and gradual enough, that world-destroyingly-critical alignment problems never appear faster than previous discoveries generalize to allow safe further experimentation.
C. Solving prosaic alignment on the first critical try is not as difficult, nor as dangerous, nor taking as much extra time, as Yudkowsky predicts; whatever effort is put forth by the leading coalition works inside of their lead time.
D. Early powerful AGIs realize that they wouldn't be able to align their own future selves/successors if their intelligence got raised further, and work honestly with humans on solving the problem in a way acceptable to both factions.
Something wonderful happens that isn't well-described by any option listed. (The semantics of this option may change if other options are added.)
A. Humanity successfully coordinates worldwide to prevent the creation of powerful AGIs for long enough to develop human intelligence augmentation, uploading, or some other pathway into transcending humanity's window of fragility.
B. Humanity puts forth a tremendous effort, and delays AI for long enough, and puts enough desperate work into alignment, that alignment gets solved first.
M. "We'll make the AI do our AI alignment homework" just works as a plan. (Eg the helping AI doesn't need to be smart enough to be deadly; the alignment proposals that most impress human judges are honest and truthful and successful.)
O. Early applications of AI/AGI drastically increase human civilization's sanity and coordination ability; enabling humanity to solve alignment, or slow down further descent into AGI, etc. (Not in principle mutex with all other answers.)
E. Whatever strange motivations end up inside an unalignable AGI, or the internal slice through that AGI which codes its successor, they max out at a universe full of cheerful qualia-bearing life and an okay outcome for existing humans.
F. Somebody pulls off a hat trick involving blah blah acausal blah blah simulations blah blah, or other amazingly clever idea, which leads an AGI to put the reachable galaxies to good use despite that AGI not being otherwise alignable.
J. Something 'just works' on the order of eg: train a predictive/imitative/generative AI on a human-generated dataset, and RLHF her to be unfailingly nice, generous to weaker entities, and determined to make the cosmos a lovely place.
H. Many competing AGIs form an equilibrium whereby no faction is allowed to get too powerful, and humanity is part of this equilibrium and survives and gets a big chunk of cosmic pie.
L. Earth's present civilization crashes before powerful AGI, and the next civilization that rises is wiser and better at ops. (Exception to 'okay' as defined originally, will be said to count as 'okay' even if many current humans die.)
G. It's impossible/improbable for something sufficiently smarter and more capable than modern humanity to be created, that it can just do whatever without needing humans to cooperate; nor does it successfully cheat/trick us.
N. A crash project at augmenting human intelligence via neurotech, training mentats via neurofeedback, etc, produces people who can solve alignment before it's too late, despite Earth civ not slowing AI down much.
You are fooled by at least one option on this list, which out of many tries, ends up sufficiently well-aimed at your personal ideals / prejudices / the parts you understand less well / your own personal indulgences in wishful thinking.
If you write an argument that breaks down the 'okay outcomes' into lots of distinct categories, without breaking down internal conjuncts and so on, Reality is very impressed with how disjunctive this sounds and allocates more probability.
19
10
8
7
7
6
6
6
6
5
4
4
3
3
2
1
1
1
OptionVotes
YES
NO
1034
956
OptionProbability
Inception
Oppenheimer
Wolf of Wall Street
Whiplash
Spirited Away
Interstellar
Mad Max Fury Road
Arrival
Poor Things
Everything Everywhere All At Once
The Dark Knight
Killers of the Flower Moon
Birdman or (The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance)
The Martian
Drive
Baby Driver
Paul Blart Mall Cop
Napoleon
Paul Blart Mall Cop 2
79
74
66
66
66
64
63
59
50
50
50
41
41
41
34
27
15
14
11
OptionVotes
NO
YES
188
79
OptionProbability
F) 8800<=Q<9500 m^3/s
G) 9500<=Q<10300 m^3/s
E) 8200<=Q<8800 m^3/s
H) 10300<=Q<11400 m^3/s
D) 7700<=Q<8200 m^3/s
A) Q<6600 m^3/s
B) 6600<=Q<7200 m^3/s
C) 7200<=Q<7700 m^3/s
I) 11400<=Q<13000 m^3/s
J) Q>=13000 m^3/s
25
14
13
11
10
6
6
6
6
3