at Max News

J. Something 'just works' on the order of eg: train a predictive/imitative/generative AI on a human-generated dataset, and RLHF her to be unfailingly nice, generous to weaker entities, and determined to make the cosmos a lovely place.

K. Somebody discovers a new AI paradigm that's powerful enough and matures fast enough to beat deep learning to the punch, and the new paradigm is much much more alignable than giant inscrutable matrices of floating-point numbers.

C. Solving prosaic alignment on the first critical try is not as difficult, nor as dangerous, nor taking as much extra time, as Yudkowsky predicts; whatever effort is put forth by the leading coalition works inside of their lead time.

M. "We'll make the AI do our AI alignment homework" just works as a plan. (Eg the helping AI doesn't need to be smart enough to be deadly; the alignment proposals that most impress human judges are honest and truthful and successful.)

Something wonderful happens that isn't well-described by any option listed. (The semantics of this option may change if other options are added.)

A. Humanity successfully coordinates worldwide to prevent the creation of powerful AGIs for long enough to develop human intelligence augmentation, uploading, or some other pathway into transcending humanity's window of fragility.

B. Humanity puts forth a tremendous effort, and delays AI for long enough, and puts enough desperate work into alignment, that alignment gets solved first.

G. It's impossible/improbable for something sufficiently smarter and more capable than modern humanity to be created, that it can just do whatever without needing humans to cooperate; nor does it successfully cheat/trick us.

I. The tech path to AGI superintelligence is naturally slow enough and gradual enough, that world-destroyingly-critical alignment problems never appear faster than previous discoveries generalize to allow safe further experimentation.

O. Early applications of AI/AGI drastically increase human civilization's sanity and coordination ability; enabling humanity to solve alignment, or slow down further descent into AGI, etc. (Not in principle mutex with all other answers.)

E. Whatever strange motivations end up inside an unalignable AGI, or the internal slice through that AGI which codes its successor, they max out at a universe full of cheerful qualia-bearing life and an okay outcome for existing humans.

D. Early powerful AGIs realize that they wouldn't be able to align their own future selves/successors if their intelligence got raised further, and work honestly with humans on solving the problem in a way acceptable to both factions.

H. Many competing AGIs form an equilibrium whereby no faction is allowed to get too powerful, and humanity is part of this equilibrium and survives and gets a big chunk of cosmic pie.

L. Earth's present civilization crashes before powerful AGI, and the next civilization that rises is wiser and better at ops. (Exception to 'okay' as defined originally, will be said to count as 'okay' even if many current humans die.)

F. Somebody pulls off a hat trick involving blah blah acausal blah blah simulations blah blah, or other amazingly clever idea, which leads an AGI to put the reachable galaxies to good use despite that AGI not being otherwise alignable.

N. A crash project at augmenting human intelligence via neurotech, training mentats via neurofeedback, etc, produces people who can solve alignment before it's too late, despite Earth civ not slowing AI down much.

If you write an argument that breaks down the 'okay outcomes' into lots of distinct categories, without breaking down internal conjuncts and so on, Reality is very impressed with how disjunctive this sounds and allocates more probability.

(JAP) Red flag during Qualyfing session

[BAH] Safety car during the race

[BAH] Yuki Tsunoda scores points

[BAH] Bearman scores points

[SAU] Safety Car during the race

[SAU] Tsunoda makes it into Q3

[SAU] Leclerc will get top 4 in the race

[MIA] Norris qualifies ahead of Piastri (main race qualifying)

[MIA] Non-Mclaren pole in Sprint Qualifying

[MIA] Piastri finishes ahead of Norris in GP

[MIA] Williams double points in the main GP

[MIA] Over 3.5 Drivers DNF in the main race

[MIA] Both McLaren on the podium

[IMO] Physical Safety Car during the race

[IMO] Max Verstappen Podium Finish

[IMO] Colapinto replaces Doohan in at least one session

[IMO] Piastri qualifies ahead of Norris

[IMO] Tsunoda scores point(s)

[MON] Red Flag during Qualifying

[MON] Pole Sitter wins the race

[MON] At least one impeding penalty during qualifying

[MON] 4+ pit stops in the first 5 laps

[MON] Norris scores more points than Piastri

[MON] Yellow flag on the 1st lap of the race

[MON] Both Ferraris finish in top 5

[SPA] Both Ferraris reach Q3

[SPA] McLaren Pole Position

[SPA] McLaren 1-2 (race)

[CAN] Physical Safety Car during the race

[CAN] Red Flag during Qualifying

[CAN] Stroll starts the race

[CAN] Impeding penalty during Qualifying (at least 1)

[CAN] Mercedes Podium

[CAN] Hulkenberg finishes in top 10

[CAN] Leclerc finishes ahead of Hamilton

[AUT] Physical Safety Car during the race

[AUT] Yellow flag first lap

[AUT] Bortoleto reaches Q3

[AUT] McLaren 1-2

[AUT] Leclerc finishes ahead of Hamilton

[AUT] Bortoleto finishes top 10

[GBR] Yellow Flag first lap

[GBR] Physical Safety Car during the race

[GBR] McLaren 1-2 (race)

[GBR] Non-McLaren pole position

[GBR] VSR virtual safety car during the race.

[GBR] Gasly finishes in top 10

[BEL] Physical Safety Car during the main race

[BEL] McLaren double podium (main race)

[BEL] Intermediate or wet weather tyres needed for the main race

[BEL] A Ferrari driver doesn't reach Q3 (main race qualifying)

[BEL] Bortoleto reaches Q3 (main race qualifying)

[BEL] Leclerc podium (main race)

[BEL] Bortoleto in the top 10 (main race)

[BEL] Hamilton top 10 (main race)

[HUN] McLaren 1-2 in the race

[HUN] Leclerc finishes ahead of Hamilton in the race

[HUN] Antonelli finishes in the points

[HUN] Bortoleto finishes in the points

[HUN] Both Aston Martins score points

[HUN] Leclerc is in first position at the end of lap 1

[NLD] Physical Safety Car during the race

Leave it open for upcoming GP

[NLD] Impeding penalty during qualifying (at least 1)

[MIA] Safety car in the main race

[BEL] Yellow flag first lap (main race)

(JAP) Safety car during the race

(JAP) A rookie crashes and cannot finish the race (technical problems at the gearbox, power unit etc. won't count, it needs to be a crash)

(JAP) Yuki Tsunoda scores points

[JAP] Lawson finishes ahead of Tsunoda

[BAH] Lawson finishes ahead of Tsunoda

[BAH] Ferrari on the podium (at least 1 driver)

[SAU] Mercedes podium (at least 1 driver)

[SAU] McLaren double podium

[SAU] Bearman scores points

[MIA] 🇮🇹 Kimi Antonelli wins the sprint race

[MIA] 🟥 Red flag during main race qualifying

[MIA] Antonelli on the Podium

[IMO] Piastri scores more points than Norris

[IMO] Leclerc finishes ahead of Hamilton (race)

[IMO] Aston Martin both drivers score points

[MON] Physical Safety Car during the race

[MON] Both Mercedes score points (i.e. top 10)

[SPA] Virtual Safety Car during the race

[SPA] Yellow flag first lap

[SPA] Tsunoda goes into Q3

[SPA] Sauber reaches Q3 (at least one driver)

[SPA] someone receives a penalty for obstructing during qualifying

[SPA] Tsunoda finishes in top 10 (race)

[SPA] Hamilton finishes ahead of Leclerc (race)

[SPA] Bortoleto finishes in top 10 (race)

[CAN] Yellow flag first lap

[CAN] Tsunoda reaches Q3

[CAN] Both Williams reach Q3

[CAN] Williams scores over 5.5 WCC points

[AUT] 3 different teams on the podium

[AUT] Tsunoda reaches Q3

[AUT] Stroll reaches Q3

[AUT] Impeding penalty during qualifying

[AUT] Williams scores points (at least one driver)

[AUT] Verstappen penalty for forcing another driver off the track or a collision.

[GBR] Both HAAS cars finish in the points (top 10)

[GBR] Tsunoda reaches Q3

[GBR] Williams reaches Q3 (at least 1 driver)

[GBR] At least one Ferrari on the podium

[GBR] Bearman finishes in top 10

[GBR] At least one Mercedes on the podium

[BEL] Two or more cars DNF (main race)

[BEL] Ferrari in top 3 in the Sprint Qualifying (at least 1 driver)

[BEL] McLaren 1-2 in the Sprint race

[BEL] Verstappen gets a penalty in either the sprint or main race

[BEL] Leclerc on the podium in the sprint race

[BEL] Red flag during qualifying (for the main race)

[BEL] main race is cancelled/aborted

[HUN] Physical Safety Car during the race

[HUN] Impeding penalty during qualifying (at least 1)

[HUN] Tsunoda reaches Q3

[HUN] Yellow flag first lap

YES

YES

Make the bread taste good

Don't eat anything for at least 48 hours before eating the bread

Stretch-and-fold after mixing, 3x every 30 min

Create indentation, fill with melted cheese and butter

Bake on upside-down sheet pan, covered with Dutch oven

Resolve this option YES while eating the bread

Donate the bread to a food pantry, homeless person, or someone else in need

Use sourdough instead of yeast

Sprinkle 3 grams of flaky sea salt on top of each loaf before the second bake

Watch the video

Autolyse 20 minutes

3 iterations of stretch-and-fold, at any time during the 14h waiting period. Minimum wait time between iterations 1 hour

More steam! Either spritz with more water (preferably hot) or actually pour some boiling water in just before closing the lid.

Make a poolish 12 h ahead: 100 g flour + 100 g water + 0.8 g yeast (0.1 %). After it ferments, use this poolish in place of 100 g flour and 100 g water in the final dough.

Bake it with your best friend.

Add 50g honey

Swap 200ml water for milk

Incorporate a whole grain flour (buckwheat for example)

Bake for an amount of minutes equal to the percent this market answer is at when it comes time to begin baking. (Maintain the ±3 minute tolerances and the 2:1 ratio of time before:after the water spritz.)

Use King Arthur Bread Flour instead of All-Purpose

Decompose it into infinite spheres, then a few parts per sphere, rotate the spheres by arccos(1/3), unite them and you will find 2 chilis (Banach-Tarski)

Let dough rise on counter only until double volume or 2h max, any time longer in fridge

Add lots of butter (0.2 ml per gram)

Use 50% whole grain flour

Ditch current process, do everything the same as the video

Toast the bread

Eat the bread while punching @realDonaldTrump in the face

Eat the bread while watching your mana balance steadily tick to (M)0

Throw the bread at a telescope

Add 50g sugar

Put a baking rack in the Dutch oven before putting the loaf in, raising the loaf off the floor and lofting it over a layer of air.

Replace all water spritz steps with a basting of extra virgin olive oil.

Use flour made from an unconventional grain e.g. barley, millet, oats, rye, sorghum, maize etc.

Assume the chili is not in the interval [0,1], square it for more chili, if it is in (0,1), take the square root, else (equals 0 or 1) add 1 to it.

Assume the chili is in the interval (0,1), square it for less chili, if it is in (1,infinity) take the square root, if it is in (-infinity,0) take the negative of the square of the of the chile, else (equals 0 or 1) subtract 1 from it.

Get your friends to help you make a batch ten times the size, but add a Pepper X (2.7M Scoville heat units) to the mixture

Add 1tsp of diastatic malt powder per 3cps of flour

replace 10% of flour with farina bona

Bake the bread into a fun shape, like a fish, or an octagon

While the bread is baking, tip every user who voted "Yes" on this option 25 Mana

Add 50g vital wheat gluten

Give ChatGPT your current recipe as well your take on what optimal bread tastes like, then take that advice for your next bake

Bread flour, 3x yeast, cut rise to ~3h

Use whole wheat to improve the nutrition of the bread

Add an amount of MSG equivalent to half the current salt content

Place small ice cubes between parchment and pot instead of water

Cook the bread with a rod/puck of aluminum foil (or similar) in the core in an attempt to conduct heat through the center of the bread, cooking it evenly like a doughnut.

Make all of the ingredients from scratch.

Add a pinch of sugar

Make the bread edible then throw it in

Buy bread from a michelin star restaurant.

Increase water by 50 g

Drink vodka while eating the bread

Cover bread with damp paper towel instead of initial water spritz. Rehydrate paper towel during 2nd spritz. Remove paper towel before placing on cooling rack.

Do FOLDED

Quit Manifold into the bread.

Kill the bread into Manifold.

Improve the bread

Start at 500F, drop to 450F and uncover half way through

Grind/powderize all salt used into a fine powder (with pestle & mortar or similar device)

it needs more salt

Add 1/2 cup yogurt to the bread and name the bread “gurt” while addressing it with “yo, gurt”.

Half yeast

Ship a piece of the bread to a random person.

Encourage people to participate in the market in good faith while making the bread

Add 2g? of baking soda

Let dough sit 48 hrs

Resolve this option NO while eating the bread

put butter into it

Mix half sodium/potassium chloride

Add a tablespoon of sugar

Bake for 5 fewer minutes

Bake one more minute

Make naan bread, an easy-to-make bread

Mail the bread to 1600 Pennsylvania Ave. Washington D.C.

Use tap water instead of fancy RO water

Frost it and put sprinkles on it to make it a birthday cake.

Add sawdust to increase the volume of the bread (but only like 10% sawdust by volume max. maybe 20% if it's good sawdust)

Add as many Jack Daniel's whiskey barrel smoking chips as feasible to the Dutch oven before baking, physically separating them from the bread as necessary while baking.

Eat the bread while sending all your mana to @realDonaldTrump

Bake the Manifold Crane into the Bread

Don't eat anything for at least 24 hours before eating the bread

Quadruple salt

Do all the changes in the top 5 open options by probability, excluding this option

Have someone sell the bread to you at an expensive price

Bake one fewer minute

Bake the cake while wearing a onesie.

Bake vegimite into it.

Use lemonade instead of water.

Bake for 5 more minutes

Replace salt with sugar

Eat the bread in front of the White House.

Bake vodka into it

Implement all options that resolved NO

Make the bread inedible then throw it out.

Replace flour with flowers

Throw the bread at @realDonaldTrump

Force Feed it to @realDonaldTrump

Think positive thoughts before tasting

Make the bread great again

Cut the bread into the number of traders in the market slices.

Only buy ingredients from 7/11.

Implementing every element listed below.

Put a non-lethal dose of any rat poison.

Just make donuts instead

Bake it in an easy bake kids oven

Use a plastic baking sheet.

Eat the bread while betting yes on Cuomo on Manifold

Ditch all the steps. Just buy the bread from the supermarket

Double oven temperature

Halve oven temperature

Play classical music while baking

Light it on fire with birthday candles.

Bake it with a microwave

Eat the bread while betting yes on Mamdani on Manifold

Wear a suit while baking the cake.

Bake your social security number into it.

Bring it to Yemen and put a bomb in it

Bake America Great Again

Sacrifice a lamb

Add MAGA and a splash of Trump juice

Bake in a cat and a dog

Explode it:

Take a fat dump in the dough

Sit in dough 24 hrs

Let dough sit 24 hrs

Bake in rectangular tin

double yeast

halve salt

Double salt

Add 2tsp olive oil

Refrigerate dough instead of room temp wait

Do not mix salt and yeast in water together

Put fork in microwave

Don't eat anything for at least 12 hours before eating the bread

Add 2tbsp vanilla extract

Eat the bread with friends

Bake it in the country you were born in.

Eat the bread over the course of a week.

Lando Norris (McLaren)

Oscar Piastri (McLaren)

Max Verstappen (Red Bull)

Charles Leclerc (Ferrari)

Lewis Hamilton (Ferrari)

Yuki Tsunoda (Previously Liam Lawson) (Red Bull)

George Russel (Mercedes)

Kimi Antonelli (Mercedes)

Fernando Alonso (Aston Martin)

Lance Stroll (Aston Martin)

Pierre Gasly (Alpine)

Jack Doohan (Alpine)

Alexander Albon (Williams)

Carlos Sainz Jr. (Williams)

Liam Lawson (Previously Yuki Tsunoda) (VCARB)

Isack Hadjar (VCARB)

Nico Hulkenberg (Sauber/Stake)

Gabriel Bortoleto (Sauber/Stake)

Esteban Ocon (Haas)

Mark Manson

Adam M. Curry

Jaan Tallinn

Eric Czuleger

Jack Dorsey

Bryan Johnson

Liron Shapira

Andrew Bustamonte

Graham Handcock

Andrew Gallimore

Hamilton Morris

Zach De La Rocha

Audrey Tang

Scott Aaronson

Scott Alexander

Rick Rubin

Nathan Young

KRS-1

Max Tegmark

Rob Miles

Connor Leahy

Samo Burja

George Hotz

Jan Leike

Andrew Huberman

Karl Marx

David Shapiro

Tim Kennedy

Sean Carroll

Roger Penrose

Tim Ferris

Mark Laita

Chris Ramsey

David Grush

Nick Bostrom

Permendes

Pythagoras

David Chalmers

Roman Yampolskiy

Stuart Russell

Brian Armstrong

Nate Soares

Doug Lenat

Geoffrey Hinton

Nathan Labenz

Julian Dorey

Yoshua Bengio

Zvi Mowshowitz

The user @krantz

Dave Smith

David Deutsch

Ilya Sutskever

Hal Putoff

Eric Weinstein

Lex Fridman

Balaji Srinivasan

Daniel Sheehan

Daniel Hillis

Tom Campbell

Curt Jaimungal

Robin Hanson

Andrew Yang

Matthew Pines

Jesse Michels

Danny Jones

Jack Kruse

Ben Goertzle

Jake Barber

David Hume

Immanuel Kant

Ludwig Wittgenstein

Bertrand Russell

Dan Faggela

Robert Monroe

Mike Benz

Chris Bledsoe

Julian Assange

Micheal Levin

Shawn Ryan

Jeffrey Mishlove

Eliezer Yudkowsky

Steven Greer

Harald Malmgren

Noam Chomsky

Matt Beall

Avi Loeb

Robert Epstein

Narendra Modi

Jeffrey Sachs

Gary Nolan

Daryl Cooper

John McAfee

Diogenes

Daryl Davis

David Goggins

Tucker Carlson

Suchir Balaji

Alex Jones

Steven Bonell (Destiny)

Bernie Sanders

Joe Rogan

Dick Cheney

Ezra Klein

Sam Altman

Dario Amodei

Larry Ellison

Dwarkesh Patel

Donald Trump

George Washington

Robert Kennedy Jr

Douglas Murry

Elon Musk

Palmer Luckey

Peter Tiel

Joeseph Farrell

Jeremy Corbell

Amjad Masad

Ammon Hillman

Jordan Peterson

Aaron Rodgers

Sergey Brin

Steve Kwast

Rob Reiner

Eric Prince

Andrew Tate

Alex Karp

Horner will stop being Team Principle first

Verstappen will stop being a Red Bull Racing driver first

K. Somebody discovers a new AI paradigm that's powerful enough and matures fast enough to beat deep learning to the punch, and the new paradigm is much much more alignable than giant inscrutable matrices of floating-point numbers.

I. The tech path to AGI superintelligence is naturally slow enough and gradual enough, that world-destroyingly-critical alignment problems never appear faster than previous discoveries generalize to allow safe further experimentation.

C. Solving prosaic alignment on the first critical try is not as difficult, nor as dangerous, nor taking as much extra time, as Yudkowsky predicts; whatever effort is put forth by the leading coalition works inside of their lead time.

B. Humanity puts forth a tremendous effort, and delays AI for long enough, and puts enough desperate work into alignment, that alignment gets solved first.

Something wonderful happens that isn't well-described by any option listed. (The semantics of this option may change if other options are added.)

M. "We'll make the AI do our AI alignment homework" just works as a plan. (Eg the helping AI doesn't need to be smart enough to be deadly; the alignment proposals that most impress human judges are honest and truthful and successful.)

A. Humanity successfully coordinates worldwide to prevent the creation of powerful AGIs for long enough to develop human intelligence augmentation, uploading, or some other pathway into transcending humanity's window of fragility.

E. Whatever strange motivations end up inside an unalignable AGI, or the internal slice through that AGI which codes its successor, they max out at a universe full of cheerful qualia-bearing life and an okay outcome for existing humans.

J. Something 'just works' on the order of eg: train a predictive/imitative/generative AI on a human-generated dataset, and RLHF her to be unfailingly nice, generous to weaker entities, and determined to make the cosmos a lovely place.

O. Early applications of AI/AGI drastically increase human civilization's sanity and coordination ability; enabling humanity to solve alignment, or slow down further descent into AGI, etc. (Not in principle mutex with all other answers.)

D. Early powerful AGIs realize that they wouldn't be able to align their own future selves/successors if their intelligence got raised further, and work honestly with humans on solving the problem in a way acceptable to both factions.

F. Somebody pulls off a hat trick involving blah blah acausal blah blah simulations blah blah, or other amazingly clever idea, which leads an AGI to put the reachable galaxies to good use despite that AGI not being otherwise alignable.

L. Earth's present civilization crashes before powerful AGI, and the next civilization that rises is wiser and better at ops. (Exception to 'okay' as defined originally, will be said to count as 'okay' even if many current humans die.)

G. It's impossible/improbable for something sufficiently smarter and more capable than modern humanity to be created, that it can just do whatever without needing humans to cooperate; nor does it successfully cheat/trick us.

H. Many competing AGIs form an equilibrium whereby no faction is allowed to get too powerful, and humanity is part of this equilibrium and survives and gets a big chunk of cosmic pie.

N. A crash project at augmenting human intelligence via neurotech, training mentats via neurofeedback, etc, produces people who can solve alignment before it's too late, despite Earth civ not slowing AI down much.

You are fooled by at least one option on this list, which out of many tries, ends up sufficiently well-aimed at your personal ideals / prejudices / the parts you understand less well / your own personal indulgences in wishful thinking.

David Morales

Felix Rodriguez (Max Gomez)

Raphael "Chi Chi" Quintero

YES

NO