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Atlantic hurricane season News

    Prediction markets for Atlantic hurricane season

    On the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, to what levels will the 2025 Atlantic season storms reach?

    Jun 3, 1:30 AMNov 30, 11:59 PM
    1733410

    OptionProbability

    Will Erin reach Category 1 wind speeds?

    Will Erin reach Category 2 wind speeds?

    Will Erin reach Category 3 wind speeds?

    Will Erin reach Category 4 wind speeds?

    Will Erin reach Category 5 wind speeds?

    Will Imelda reach Category 1 wind speeds?

    Will Humberto reach Category 1 wind speeds?

    Will Jerry reach Category 1 wind speeds?

    Will Gabrielle reach Category 1 wind speeds?

    Will Karen reach Category 1 wind speeds?

    Will Melissa reach Category 1 wind speeds?

    Will Imelda reach Category 2 wind speeds?

    Will Jerry reach Category 2 wind speeds?

    Will Lorenzo reach Category 1 wind speeds?

    Will Olga reach Category 1 wind speeds?

    Will Pablo reach Category 1 wind speeds?

    Will Imelda reach Category 3 wind speeds?

    Will Humberto reach Category 2 wind speeds?

    Will Imelda reach Category 4 wind speeds?

    Will Karen reach Category 2 wind speeds?

    Will Melissa reach Category 2 wind speeds?

    Will Nestor reach Category 1 wind speeds?

    Will Rebekah reach Category 1 wind speeds?

    Will Jerry reach Category 3 wind speeds?

    Will Melissa reach Category 3 wind speeds?

    Will Pablo reach Category 2 wind speeds?

    Will Sebastien reach Category 1 wind speeds?

    Will Humberto reach Category 3 wind speeds?

    Will Lorenzo reach Category 2 wind speeds?

    Will Gabrielle reach Category 2 wind speeds?

    Will Karen reach Category 3 wind speeds?

    Will Nestor reach Category 2 wind speeds?

    Will Rebekah reach Category 2 wind speeds?

    Will Humberto reach Category 4 wind speeds?

    Will Jerry reach Category 4 wind speeds?

    Will Karen reach Category 4 wind speeds?

    Will Pablo reach Category 3 wind speeds?

    Will Sebastien reach Category 2 wind speeds?

    Will Lorenzo reach Category 3 wind speeds?

    Will Melissa reach Category 4 wind speeds?

    Will Nestor reach Category 3 wind speeds?

    Will Olga reach Category 2 wind speeds?

    Will Rebekah reach Category 3 wind speeds?

    Will Lorenzo reach Category 4 wind speeds?

    Will Pablo reach Category 4 wind speeds?

    Will Sebastien reach Category 3 wind speeds?

    Will Rebekah reach Category 4 wind speeds?

    Will Sebastien reach Category 4 wind speeds?

    Will Gabrielle reach Category 3 wind speeds?

    Will Olga reach Category 3 wind speeds?

    Will Gabrielle reach Category 4 wind speeds?

    Will Humberto reach Category 5 wind speeds?

    Will Nestor reach Category 4 wind speeds?

    Will Olga reach Category 4 wind speeds?

    Will Sebastien reach Category 5 wind speeds?

    Will Melissa reach Category 5 wind speeds?

    Will Gabrielle reach Category 5 wind speeds?

    Will Imelda reach Category 5 wind speeds?

    Will Karen reach Category 5 wind speeds?

    Will Lorenzo reach Category 5 wind speeds?

    Will Jerry reach Category 5 wind speeds?

    Will Pablo reach Category 5 wind speeds?

    Will Nestor reach Category 5 wind speeds?

    Will Olga reach Category 5 wind speeds?

    Will Rebekah reach Category 5 wind speeds?

    Will Fernand reach Category 1 wind speeds?

    Will Fernand reach Category 2 wind speeds?

    Will Fernand reach Category 3 wind speeds?

    Will Fernand reach Category 4 wind speeds?

    Will Fernand reach Category 5 wind speeds?

    Will Andrea reach Category 1 wind speeds?

    Will Andrea reach Category 2 wind speeds?

    Will Andrea reach Category 3 wind speeds?

    Will Andrea reach Category 4 wind speeds?

    Will Andrea reach Category 5 wind speeds?

    Will Barry reach Category 1 wind speeds?

    Will Barry reach Category 2 wind speeds?

    Will Barry reach Category 3 wind speeds?

    Will Barry reach Category 4 wind speeds?

    Will Barry reach Category 5 wind speeds?

    Will Chantal reach Category 1 wind speeds?

    Will Chantal reach Category 2 wind speeds?

    Will Chantal reach Category 3 wind speeds?

    Will Chantal reach Category 3 wind speeds?

    Will Chantal reach Category 4 wind speeds?

    Will Chantal reach Category 5 wind speeds?

    Will Dexter reach Category 1 wind speeds?

    Will Dexter reach Category 2 wind speeds?

    Will Dexter reach Category 3 wind speeds?

    Will Dexter reach Category 4 wind speeds?

    Will Dexter reach Category 5 wind speeds?

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    🗓️2025 Timeline: Which of these events will happen LAST (or not at all) this year in chronological order? (48 DONE)

    Jan 2, 2:40 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
    5121376

    OptionProbability

    trump is impeached by either house OR senate

    Bitcoin reaches 200K usd or more

    a second cybertruck explodes (intended or unintended) that makes the news

    Tom Scott's 'this video' reaches 80M views on Youtube

    this market reaches 100 traders

    undersea cables reported cut around taiwan

    Ark Survival Evolved 2 releases

    EOD Boxing Day - Dec 26

    israel opens an embassy in syria, OR announces it will

    First game of the MLB World Series starts

    trump removes a cabinet member

    openai loses another board member, or sam altman no longer ceo

    this market reaches 5k individual TRADES

    English Wikipedia reaches 70M PAGES or more

    Saw XI Releases in USA

    alan greenspan passes away

    MLB rookie of the year announced

    coup in an african country

    noam chomsky passes away

    chinese spy balloon incident reported on news

    another trump assassination attempt

    discord IPO happens

    Bitcoin reaches 150K usd or more

    2025 nobel peace prize winner announced

    Hades 3 announced (game)

    EOD Thanksgiving - Nov 28

    Twitter releases a Peer to Peer payment system to free or premium users

    Last game of the MLB World Series ends

    the "500 poll" reaches its target goal of 500 responses

    Taylor Swift announce engagement or marriage

    zootopia 2 releases

    Spacex launches 150th rocket of the year

    Cy Young award winner announced

    Bitcoin reaches 125K usd or more

    manifold raises more money

    EOD Halloween - Oct 31

    Tom Scott's 'this video' reaches 75M views on Youtube

    stripe ipo happens

    Legally Blonde 3 release date announced

    GenoSamuel releases Chris Chan History #86

    Third dune movie officially announced

    EOD Lief Erikson Day - Oct 9

    Prong.Studio releases a 3rd product (not an accessory or part for an existing one)

    Sailing releases as a skill in Old School Runescape

    onepieceexplained reaches 15k subs on youtube

    windows 12 announcement is made

    Skibidi Toilet ends their original series

    Imu face reveal in One Piece manga

    the third Atlantic hurricane of the season

    someone reaches 100k traders on creator leaderboard

    Skate 4 releases

    trump starts mass deportations

    the second Atlantic hurricane of the season

    the first Atlantic hurricane of the season

    Spacex launches 100th rocket in one year

    Chat GPT 5 releases to the general userbase

    Spider-Man: Beyond the Spider-Verse release date announced

    Earthquake magnitude 8.0 or higher somewhere in the world

    Earthquake magnitude 7.8 or higher somewhere in the world

    Killing Floor 3 releases on Steam

    grok4 release date

    the start of Amazon Prime Day(s) 2025

    EOD Fourth of July - Jul 4

    the third Pacific hurricane of the season

    28 years Later releases in USA

    the second Pacific hurricane of the season

    chime IPO happens

    Spacex launches 75th rocket of the year

    First Apple Event of the year

    the first Pacific hurricane of the season

    manifest 2025 ends

    Manifest 2025 starts

    Mr Beast hits 400M Youtube Subscribers

    Bitcoin reaches 110K usd or more

    English Wikipedia reaches 7M ARTICLES or more

    claude 4 sonnet releases (or later version)

    EOD Cinco De Mayo - May 5

    Spacex launches 50th rocket of the year

    Last day of the NFL draft

    Llama 4 released to the general userbase

    Joseph Anderson releases long awaited Witcher 3 video

    south korean president removed from power

    the first Solar eclipse of the year

    First Nintendo direct of the year

    trump declares war or orders military actions on another country

    Ukraine and Russia announce any ceasefire

    EOD Ides of March - Mar 15

    the first Lunar eclipse of the year

    EOD Fat Tuesday/Mardi Gras

    trump enacts new or changed tariffs on mexico

    new iphone releases in the USA (official date)

    Spacex launches 25th rocket of the year

    new iphone release date announced (in the USA)

    grok 3 release date

    nintendo switch successor announced officially

    trump enacts new or changed tariffs on china

    CGP Grey releases a new video (not a reupload)

    doomsday clock announcement

    USA President issues 10th executive order

    USA President issues 1st executive order

    Israel and Hamas announce another temporary ceasefire OR permanent ceasefire OR conflict otherwise ends

    this market reaches 1k individual TRADES

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    2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season worse than 2017?

    Jun 30, 10:13 AMNov 30, 11:59 PM
    5.65%chance
    95751

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    4085

    245

    How active will the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season be?

    May 9, 10:48 PMDec 1, 11:59 PM
    115628

    OptionProbability

    Above normal (126.1 < ACE < 159.6)

    Near-normal ( 73 < ACE < 126.1)

    Hyperactive (ACE > 159.6)

    Below normal (ACE < 73)

    58

    26

    15

    1

    In which states will a hurricane make landfall in the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season?

    May 28, 7:52 PMNov 30, 11:59 PM
    104510

    OptionProbability

    Florida

    Texas

    Louisiana

    Alabama

    Georgia

    South Carolina

    Mississippi

    North Carolina

    Virginia

    Massachusetts

    Maryland

    Rhode Island

    New Jersey

    New York

    Delaware

    Connecticut

    New Hampshire

    Maine

    42

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    33

    20

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    12

    9

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    How many hurricanes will there be in the 2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season?

    May 23, 7:04 PMNov 30, 11:59 PM
    113813

    How many named storms will there be in the 2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season?

    May 23, 7:00 PMNov 30, 11:59 PM
    73746

    How many major hurricanes will there be in the 2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season?

    May 23, 7:05 PMNov 30, 11:59 PM
    113320

    Will any of the first 5 named hurricanes of the Atlantic Hurricane Season make landfall?

    May 8, 6:30 PMNov 30, 11:59 PM
    87.53%chance
    6332

    OptionVotes

    NO

    YES

    265

    38

    How many Atlantic hurricane names will be retired for the 2025 season?

    Jan 15, 7:02 PMMar 2, 4:59 AM
    6238

    OptionProbability

    0

    1

    2

    3

    4 or more

    50

    40

    4

    3

    3

    Trump publicly criticizes NHC forecast before end of Atlantic hurricane season

    Aug 16, 7:16 PMNov 30, 11:59 PM
    66.64%chance
    7191

    OptionVotes

    NO

    YES

    720

    521

    How many Atlantic hurricane names will be retired for the 2025 season?

    Apr 5, 9:31 PMApr 12, 10:59 PM
    6132

    OptionProbability

    0

    1

    2

    3

    4 or more

    47

    37

    6

    6

    3

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