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Prediction markets for attacks

Will Hezbollah attack Cyprus before EOY 2025?

Jun 20, 12:49 AMDec 31, 4:59 PM

2.26%chance

3083902

OptionVotes

YES

NO

75180

2791

Is a NATO-aligned or anti-Russian entity responsible for the Nord Stream attack?

Oct 1, 6:02 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

96.55%chance

15747127

OptionVotes

NO

YES

13262

816

Will Trump cheer on a violent attack on a public intellectual?

Apr 28, 7:37 PMFeb 2, 8:37 PM

26.71%chance

1210988

OptionVotes

YES

NO

16566

6037

Will Bitcoin experience a successful 51% attack by 2032-11-29?

Nov 30, 12:29 AMNov 29, 11:59 PM

5.34%chance

2510374

OptionVotes

NO

YES

11114

6782

Is Havana Syndrome real? (attack from foreign adversary) 🔫⚡️🤯🇨🇺🇺🇸

Mar 29, 12:19 PMJan 1, 12:59 PM

27.86%chance

938710

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1136

967

Will there be a terrorist attack against OpenAI before 2027?

Jun 1, 2:14 PMDec 31, 4:59 PM

17.11%chance

516322

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4693

1422

If China attacks Taiwan, will they fight US forces within a month?

Oct 24, 8:42 AMFeb 2, 5:59 AM

37.42%chance

485444

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1455

509

When the PRC invades Taiwan will they preemptively attack US, British, Japanese, Kiwi, and/or Australian military/intelligence assets in the region?

Aug 8, 1:08 AMDec 15, 4:59 AM

41.25%chance

543032

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1379

426

[Metaculus] Will an aerial drone terrorist attack result in an injury or death in the United States before 2026?

Apr 26, 5:18 PMJan 2, 11:00 AM

15.4%chance

161871

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4277

2285

END TIMES! new amendment, emergency pres. succession, nuke, big disaster, attack, or financial collapse by mid 2027

Jan 2, 5:31 PMJun 30, 9:59 PM

27.31%chance

91326

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1631

613

Before July 2026, will I personally see an online ad which is obviously a prompt injection attack for AI agents?

Jan 29, 7:31 AMJun 2, 6:59 AM

44.35%chance

131087

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1140

913

Who will Win a War if Aliens attack planet Earth?

Oct 6, 8:11 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

30.33%chance

11932

OptionVotes

NO

YES

993

985

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