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Prediction markets for attacks

Will Russia attack Baltic states (Lithuania, Latvia or Estonia) by 2030?

Jan 21, 1:09 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

23.89%chance

10028968

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1141

1056

[ACX 2026] Will China attack or blockade Taiwan during 2026?

Jan 6, 10:33 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

8.06%chance

6416144

OptionVotes

YES

NO

8906

4613

Will the US attack Cuba before China attacks Taiwan?

Jan 31, 4:08 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

72.05%chance

5015103

OptionVotes

NO

YES

16057

6228

Will Trump cheer on a violent attack on a public intellectual?

Apr 28, 7:37 PMFeb 2, 8:37 PM

20.3%chance

1214238

OptionVotes

YES

NO

19816

5046

Is Havana Syndrome real? (attack from foreign adversary) 🔫⚡️🤯🇨🇺🇺🇸

Mar 29, 12:19 PMJan 1, 12:59 PM

31.36%chance

12114188

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1217

876

Will Bitcoin experience a successful 51% attack by 2032-11-29?

Nov 30, 12:29 AMNov 29, 11:59 PM

5.34%chance

2510374

OptionVotes

NO

YES

11114

6782

Will there be a terrorist attack against OpenAI before 2027?

Jun 1, 2:14 PMDec 31, 4:59 PM

16.75%chance

708876

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4766

1407

When the PRC invades Taiwan will they preemptively attack US, British, Japanese, Kiwi, and/or Australian military/intelligence assets in the region?

Aug 8, 1:08 AMDec 15, 4:59 AM

41.25%chance

543032

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1379

426

Will Russia launch a military attack against Poland by the end of 2039?

Feb 13, 3:28 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

61.74%chance

462735

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1440

236

Will a data centre hosting AI be physically attacked before December 31, 2029?

Sep 29, 7:48 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

52.24%chance

251469

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1334

367

END TIMES! new amendment, emergency pres. succession, nuke, big disaster, attack, or financial collapse by mid 2027

Jan 2, 5:31 PMJun 30, 9:59 PM

27.31%chance

91326

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1631

613

Will the US threaten to attack Canada before 2027?

Aug 26, 10:32 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

28.38%chance

9403

OptionVotes

YES

NO

159

63

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