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Prediction markets for attacks

Is a NATO-aligned or anti-Russian entity responsible for the Nord Stream attack?

Oct 1, 6:02 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

96.55%chance

15847147

OptionVotes

NO

YES

13262

816

Will Russia attack Baltic states (Lithuania, Latvia or Estonia) by 2030?

Jan 21, 1:09 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

25%chance

9326707

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1091

1072

[ACX 2026] Will China attack or blockade Taiwan during 2026?

Jan 6, 10:33 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

8.97%chance

6015296

OptionVotes

YES

NO

8058

4691

Will the US attack Cuba before China attacks Taiwan?

Jan 31, 4:08 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

72.06%chance

5015102

OptionVotes

NO

YES

16060

6227

Will Trump cheer on a violent attack on a public intellectual?

Apr 28, 7:37 PMFeb 2, 8:37 PM

20.3%chance

1214238

OptionVotes

YES

NO

19816

5046

Is Havana Syndrome real? (attack from foreign adversary) 🔫⚡️🤯🇨🇺🇺🇸

Mar 29, 12:19 PMJan 1, 12:59 PM

31.36%chance

12114188

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1217

876

Will Bitcoin experience a successful 51% attack by 2032-11-29?

Nov 30, 12:29 AMNov 29, 11:59 PM

5.34%chance

2510374

OptionVotes

NO

YES

11114

6782

Will there be a terrorist attack against OpenAI before 2027?

Jun 1, 2:14 PMDec 31, 4:59 PM

26.23%chance

637472

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3396

1772

When the PRC invades Taiwan will they preemptively attack US, British, Japanese, Kiwi, and/or Australian military/intelligence assets in the region?

Aug 8, 1:08 AMDec 15, 4:59 AM

41.25%chance

543032

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1379

426

Will Russia launch a military attack against Poland by the end of 2039?

Feb 13, 3:28 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

59.25%chance

442704

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1409

256

Will a data centre hosting AI be physically attacked before December 31, 2029?

Sep 29, 7:48 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

52.24%chance

251469

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1334

367

END TIMES! new amendment, emergency pres. succession, nuke, big disaster, attack, or financial collapse by mid 2027

Jan 2, 5:31 PMJun 30, 9:59 PM

27.31%chance

91326

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1631

613

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