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Prediction markets for attacks

Is a NATO-aligned or anti-Russian entity responsible for the Nord Stream attack?

Oct 1, 6:02 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

96.62%chance

15546493

OptionVotes

NO

YES

13433

810

Will Hezbollah attack Cyprus before EOY 2025?

Jun 20, 12:49 AMDec 31, 4:59 PM

4.96%chance

2543707

OptionVotes

YES

NO

45445

3817

Will Bitcoin experience a successful 51% attack by 2032-11-29?

Nov 30, 12:29 AMNov 29, 11:59 PM

5.34%chance

2510374

OptionVotes

NO

YES

11114

6782

Will Trump cheer on a violent attack on a public intellectual?

Apr 28, 7:37 PMFeb 2, 8:37 PM

28.4%chance

1110113

OptionVotes

YES

NO

15879

6298

Is Havana Syndrome real? (attack from foreign adversary) 🔫⚡️🤯🇨🇺🇺🇸

Mar 29, 12:19 PMJan 1, 12:59 PM

27.86%chance

938710

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1136

967

Will there be a terrorist attack against OpenAI before 2027?

Jun 1, 2:14 PMDec 31, 4:59 PM

17.63%chance

496222

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4593

1443

If China attacks Taiwan, will they fight US forces within a month?

Oct 24, 8:42 AMFeb 2, 5:59 AM

37.42%chance

485444

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1455

509

When the PRC invades Taiwan will they preemptively attack US, British, Japanese, Kiwi, and/or Australian military/intelligence assets in the region?

Aug 8, 1:08 AMDec 15, 4:59 AM

51.12%chance

542873

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1221

562

Will Trump attack one of Elon Musk's companies by EOY2025?

Jul 5, 5:23 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

59.74%chance

292397

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1218

821

END TIMES! new amendment, emergency pres. succession, nuke, big disaster, attack, or financial collapse by mid 2027

Jan 2, 5:31 PMJun 30, 9:59 PM

25%chance

91225

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1732

577

[Metaculus] Will an aerial drone terrorist attack result in an injury or death in the United States before 2026?

Apr 26, 5:18 PMJan 2, 11:00 AM

23.35%chance

11494

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2913

2605

Which markets will close during the six months prior to the next nuclear attack?

Dec 2, 4:10 PMJan 2, 12:00 AM

00

OptionProbability

Other

Nuclear doomsday clock: https://manifold.markets/MartinRandall/will-the-doomsday-clock-advance-tow-267cd4b639d9--cash

50

50

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