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Prediction markets for Attention

Is attention all you need? (transformers SOTA in 2027)

Nov 16, 7:02 PMJan 31, 11:30 PM

96.36%chance

14343501

OptionVotes

NO

YES

19512

941

Is Attention All You Need?

Nov 16, 5:17 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

94.62%chance

628089

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3634

134

Which AI risks will grow in global attention in Q3/2026?

Jul 6, 12:28 PMSep 30, 11:59 PM

595697

OptionProbability

Inequality

Job loss

Accidents

X-risks

Disinformation

Democracy harms

Privacy erosion

Runaway science

Warfare

Human meaning

83

82

69

67

59

57

53

51

41

28

Will an attention tax be issued by Brazil's government before 2030?

Feb 18, 10:16 PMJan 1, 3:59 AM

6.83%chance

3879

OptionVotes

YES

NO

369

27

Will AI "love bots/virtual girlfriends" be good enough to reduce the % of "unwarranted male attention" by 50% by 2027?

Feb 23, 9:54 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

19.93%chance

19758

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1357

873

Markers for conscious AI #2: AI uses attention schema

Nov 2, 3:14 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

5655

OptionProbability

<2030

<2027

>=2030

<2026

41

34

13

12

Attention + Diffusion + Search = AGI?

May 8, 11:00 PMMar 5, 10:59 PM

16.84%chance

10271

OptionVotes

YES

NO

442

84

Attention + Diffusion + Search + RL = AGI?

May 9, 1:16 PMMar 5, 10:59 PM

26.63%chance

6240

OptionVotes

YES

NO

276

154

Will someone create a token/shitcoin entirely based on getting Elon Musk's attention by EOY 2027?

Nov 25, 1:32 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

77.95%chance

6182

OptionVotes

NO

YES

188

53

Will the "Attention Is All You Need" Paper be given the Test of Time Award in NeurIPS 2027?

Jul 23, 7:27 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

50%chance

2100

OptionVotes

NO

YES

100

100

Attention + Search + RL = AGI?

Dec 30, 2:13 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

64.65%chance

345

OptionVotes

NO

YES

135

74

You can now ping @mods to request moderator attention in any market. What do you think of this?

May 24, 11:46 PM

310

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