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Prediction markets for Attention

Is attention all you need? (transformers SOTA in 2027)

Nov 16, 7:02 PMJan 31, 11:30 PM

96.2%chance

14444304

OptionVotes

NO

YES

19028

960

Is Attention All You Need?

Nov 16, 5:17 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

95.26%chance

638109

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3832

124

Will an attention tax be issued by Brazil's government before 2030?

Feb 18, 10:16 PMJan 1, 3:59 AM

6.83%chance

3879

OptionVotes

YES

NO

369

27

Will AI "love bots/virtual girlfriends" be good enough to reduce the % of "unwarranted male attention" by 50% by 2027?

Feb 23, 9:54 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

19.93%chance

19758

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1357

873

Markers for conscious AI #2: AI uses attention schema

Nov 2, 3:14 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

5655

OptionProbability

<2030

<2027

>=2030

<2026

41

34

13

12

Will the "Attention Is All You Need" Paper be given the Test of Time Award in NeurIPS 2027?

Jul 23, 7:27 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

13%chance

3539

OptionVotes

YES

NO

259

39

Attention + Diffusion + Search = AGI?

May 8, 11:00 PMMar 5, 10:59 PM

16.84%chance

10271

OptionVotes

YES

NO

442

84

Attention + Diffusion + Search + RL = AGI?

May 9, 1:16 PMMar 5, 10:59 PM

26.63%chance

6240

OptionVotes

YES

NO

276

154

Will someone create a token/shitcoin entirely based on getting Elon Musk's attention by EOY 2027?

Nov 25, 1:32 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

77.95%chance

6182

OptionVotes

NO

YES

188

53

Attention + Search + RL = AGI?

Dec 30, 2:13 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

64.65%chance

345

OptionVotes

NO

YES

135

74

You can now ping @mods to request moderator attention in any market. What do you think of this?

May 24, 11:46 PM

320

Is "capturing people’s attention and gets them addicted" currently a big part of Manifold?

Apr 2, 9:22 PM

250

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