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Prediction markets for Audible

How many times will I cry emotionally to written work made entirely by an LLM before July 2026?

Oct 11, 4:53 AMJul 2, 6:59 AM

48.3%chance

262546

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1035

967

Who will be portrayed in the first Oscar-winning movie about real-life AI released before 2034?

Oct 5, 4:15 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

121526

OptionProbability

Sam Altman

Elon Musk

Mark Zuckerberg

Jensen Huang

Tim Cook

Daniel Kokotajlo

Donald Trump

Dario Amodei

Satya Nadella

Sundar Pichai

Xi Jinping

Eliezer Yudkowsky

The Pope

Dwarkesh Patel

Sam Bankman-Fried

Kamala Harris

80

55

52

52

43

34

31

31

31

31

28

27

22

20

20

8

Audible sells books narrated by AI voice replacements of celebrities or characters before 2029

Jun 11, 2:15 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

85.84%chance

351327

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1349

898

Will Link speak in the Zelda movie?

Nov 12, 10:59 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

91.17%chance

21941

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1796

881

On Android, does Kindle have the guts to ship automatic voice accompaniment?

Dec 15, 10:20 PMJul 1, 6:59 AM

30.45%chance

14494

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1204

892

Will Donald Trump burp into the microphone and then say "Pardon me" during his presidency?

Jan 16, 6:17 PMJan 20, 11:59 AM

13.21%chance

10194

OptionVotes

YES

NO

256

39

Will Crypton Future Media announce a singing synth voicebank for software made by another company by the end of 2026?

Jan 4, 6:35 AMJan 2, 6:59 AM

75.58%chance

588

OptionVotes

NO

YES

170

80

Will Grogu (Baby Yoda) speak?

May 1, 11:47 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

64.31%chance

785

OptionVotes

NO

YES

134

74

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