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Prediction markets for Audible

How many times will I cry emotionally to written work made entirely by an LLM before July 2026?

Oct 11, 4:53 AMJul 2, 6:59 AM

11.69%chance

314298

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2748

364

Who will be portrayed in the first Oscar-winning movie about real-life AI released before 2034?

Oct 5, 4:15 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

151731

OptionProbability

Sam Altman

Elon Musk

Jensen Huang

Mark Zuckerberg

Tim Cook

Dario Amodei

The Pope

Donald Trump

Eliezer Yudkowsky

Daniel Kokotajlo

Satya Nadella

Sundar Pichai

Xi Jinping

Dwarkesh Patel

Sam Bankman-Fried

Kamala Harris

80

68

57

56

43

40

37

36

34

34

31

31

28

20

20

8

Audible sells books narrated by AI voice replacements of celebrities or characters before 2029

Jun 11, 2:15 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

85.85%chance

351328

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1350

898

Will Link speak in the Zelda movie?

Nov 12, 10:59 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

91.68%chance

221041

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1896

872

Will Apple mention Anthropic or Claude in its WWDC 2026 keynote?

May 17, 5:15 AMJun 25, 4:00 PM

5.3%chance

19748

OptionVotes

YES

NO

373

66

On Android, does Kindle have the guts to ship automatic voice accompaniment?

Dec 15, 10:20 PMJul 1, 6:59 AM

29.62%chance

15584

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1234

879

Will Donald Trump burp into the microphone and then say "Pardon me" during his presidency?

Jan 16, 6:17 PMJan 20, 11:59 AM

10.65%chance

14390

OptionVotes

YES

NO

290

35

Will Grogu (Baby Yoda) speak?

May 1, 11:47 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

51%chance

10112

OptionVotes

NO

YES

102

98

Will Crypton Future Media announce a singing synth voicebank for software made by another company by the end of 2026?

Jan 4, 6:35 AMJan 2, 6:59 AM

75.58%chance

588

OptionVotes

NO

YES

170

80

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