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    Prediction markets for Audio

    OptionProbability

    The Jews control at least one nation's government

    Imane Khelif is intersex

    The P320 pistol has a design flaw allowing it to fire without pulling the trigger

    Orgies by the wealthy elite as portrayed in 'Eyes Wide Shut'.

    Orgies by the fucked-up poors as portrayed in "Eyes Wide Shut XXX" (2013)

    The UK security services are complicit in the coverup of a significant underage sex scandal closely linked to the monarchy, taking place in the UK in the period 1975-2015

    DHMO in the water supply

    Dream faked the Manhunt videos

    Osama bin Laden didn't act alone

    Santa is rigged

    That motherfucker WAS real (Tiffany Gomas was wrong the whole time)

    √-1 isn't real

    Smartphones listen in on private conversations

    The CCP has a plan to exterminate a large number of people they consider to not be ethnically Chinese

    The 1% promoted culture wars to distract from class war

    Lionel Messi never played for a Real football (soccer) team

    US security services use the Google Play Store as an attack vector for android devices

    Atrazine works as an endocrine-disrupting chemical (EDC), converting testosterone to estrogen in the bodies of frogs leading to homosexual proclivities.

    ASI will converge on agreeing (90%+ credence) that the Self-Indication Assumption is true.

    The Church and elites deliberately suppressed and distorted the more Gnostic message of Jesus Christ.

    Joe/Hunter Biden took bribe to protect Burisma from investigation

    Groundhog Day is rigged

    That stock trading AI supposedly built by @SteveSokolowski is actually part of an elaborate scam

    Ticketmaster is in cahoots with organized scalpers

    Annie Altman's abuse claims

    Major deaths, terror, and tragedy events are routinely hoaxes per Miles Mathis.

    Gamergate was right

    Dead Internet theory

    Some answers in this market are psyops to discredit all the others

    The NBA rigs the draft lottery

    The CCP is directly supporting drug cartel activity in the West

    Germany has a well-prepared plan (in 2024-) to start mass producing nuclear weapons in <6 months (in case things go bad geopolitically)

    Tiffany Gomas is not the same person as the TMINR lady in the video. She is a PSYOP for Barstool.

    Trump committed sex offenses against minors on Epstein Island

    An adversary is intentionally causing hysteria over drone incidents to force the US/UK's hand into revealing their anti-drone tech

    @strutheo is @notrickspringfield

    There are devices which have been used to alter the electric network frequency of a country in the Middle East to leave more identifiable traces in recorded video and audio clips

    John McAfee didn't kill himself

    At least 3 of the members elected to the French lower house of Parliament in 2024 are Russian agents

    The Obamas have a loveless marriage, kept together for optics only

    Bielefeld does not exist, but another city with the same name in the same place does

    Smart devices are almost always listening to your private conversations

    This one makes me feel evil, so I ROT13'd it, use ROT13 to decode if you want to keep me company in Hell: Ybh Truevt'f ergverzrag jnf npghnyyl na ZYO-znaqngrq fhfcrafvba

    Eliezer wrote The Erogamer

    The US/UK/French security services are sinking Russian ships in response to attacks on undersea cables and other hybrid warfare activities (since 2022)

    Deepwater Horizon explosion due to sabotage

    China made covid 19 in a lab

    Eating your veggies is bad for your health

    Rory Stewart worked for MI6

    At least one UN recognised country is secretly controlled by a cabal following a religion shared by <5% of the country's population

    Jeffrey Epstein didn't kill himself

    The US, UK and French security services have collectively assassinated at least 10 German citizens in Germany since 2022

    Covid was a deliberate test of pandemic preparedness in view of bacteriological war between China and the US

    FDR deliberately left Pearl Harbor vulnerable, in order to goad Americans into war

    The article "Deliberate Errors" documenting winks connecting Apollo and Kubrick films is correct, because Kubrick played a role in filming some of the Apollo missions.

    The Romance languages are not descended from Classical Latin

    As of June 2025, JD Vance is secretly making plans to use future ASI to sieze power and become eternal world dictator

    Shakespeare didn’t write his own plays

    My dog went to live on farm that was full of other dogs that he could run with and play with and he was much happier than staying with us and peeing on the rug.

    The American govt is actually a totalitarian dictatorship

    Youssoufa Moukoko (soccer player) was born earlier than he claims (earlier than 2004)

    The Clintons assasinated their rivals

    China was not genociding Uyghurs

    Michael Jordan's first NBA retirement was actually a forced suspension.

    Bitcoin was created by a US three letter agency

    lɐǝɹ ʇ,usᴉ ɐᴉlɐɹʇsn∀

    The U.S. military is the number one customer of Glitterex (a glitter company) but doesn't want anyone to know because it hurts their masculine image.

    Many vaccines on the standard CDC childhood immunization schedule have serious negative side effects (net negative on health) for at least 5% of the population.

    Aluminum cookware actually *does* cause Alzheimers.

    Hellenistic scientists could derive the correct refraction law by minimizing light travel time

    Marilyn Manson had a rib removed in the late 1990s

    Charles Manson had a rib removed in the late 1990s

    Members of US government had prior knowledge of 9/11 and let it happen

    ASI will converge on agreeing (90%+ credence) that Trump/Musk model the first/second beast of Revelation.

    Hellenistic science developed statistical mechanics to the point of being able to derive PV=nRT

    A pharma company has a much better treatment for cancer that they are keeping secret because it would compete with their existing products

    The Hellenistic civilization was aware of the existence of Azeroth

    Sue Gray was a spy

    Dominic Cummings was/is a Russian spy

    We live in an ancestor simulation per Nick Bostrom.

    Non-human intelligence affecting events on Earth is not extraterrestrial "aliens," and humans are incorrect in believing that reality consists only of the Universe.

    covid-19 vaccine is net negative for health for people who are under 35, with no aggravating condition, and not obese

    The 1% promoted class war to distract from culture wars

    The 9/11 terror attack date is meaningfully connected to Ernest Martin's theory that Jesus was born on September 11, 3 BC rather than a coincidence.

    Ogopogo and the Yeti faked their relationship (to boost CFL ratings, to increase Taylor Swift's movie sales, support Trudeau's reelection, b/c Ogopogo is PSY, etc.)

    The Hawk Tuah meme is a North Korean psyop

    The CIA killed JFK

    Lee Harvey Oswald didn't act alone.

    The hellenistic civilization was aware of the existence of the American continent

    The pharma industry has a better version of Viagra that they keep secret to keep their profits up

    Finno-Korean Hyperwar was real

    "Geoterrorism" (weather modification for terrorism) is real as of 2024

    The NFL is rigged

    The New Zealand government had advance knowledge of the sinking of the Rainbow Warrior

    Hellenistic science advanced meta-thermodynamics to derive 𝑄 = 𝑛𝐶Δ𝑇(1 + 𝐻⊙⋆) using the Holtzman Generator

    US security services asked Microsoft to buy Skype and alter the software so they could target users more easily

    Elon Musk used Starlink to rig the 2024 election

    Circa 1920 civilizational collapse (c.f. "Whither Tartaria?")

    Covid 19 was made in a labradoodle

    A cure for cancer has already been found

    Jet fuel *can* melt steel beams, but the official 9/11 narrative is sus because chemtrail chemicals cannot

    South Korea has had nuclear weapons since 2023

    Harold Holt murdered

    Trump and Netanyahu had Charlie Kirk killed to take control of TPUSA

    COVID-19 vaccine is net negative for health

    Biden and/or US govt did Jan 6 (exclude trump)

    The NBA rigged Shaq's free throws

    Skin cancer is caused by a lack of melanin, regardless of sunlight exposure

    Hellenistic scientists could derive the correct warp-induced refraction law by exceeding Warp Factor 9 under Cochrane’s Theorem

    Ogopogo is real

    QAnon

    Exercise is bad for your health

    A support network of close friendships is bad for your health

    Israel killed JFK

    Trump devolved the government in anticipation of 2020 election fraud and replaced Biden with an actor wearing a mask.

    Shakespeare is not real - they claim he was married to Anne Hathaway but she's like only 40 or so

    Allen Iverson invented A.I.

    The government iodizes the water and fluoridates salt when it should be the other way around

    Bitcoin was created by a 3 letter Hellenistic agency

    Bush did 9/11

    Airplane trails have toxic chemicals (chemtrails)

    carbon dioxide isn't the main cause of global warming

    Princess Diana was assassinated

    QR codes are satanic

    Mossad releases video and audio clips, intended to be of interest to their adversaries, which play special sounds that humans don't notice

    Mossad uses Hellenistic technology borrowed from the North Sentinelese

    Xi Jinping had advance knowledge of the Hawk Tuah meme

    China purposely spread covid 19 having intended it to escape the lab

    Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce faked their relationship (to boost NFL ratings, to increase Tay's movie sales, legitimize mRNA vaccines, b/c she is a PSYOP, etc.)

    Human didnt evolve from apes

    Getting 8 hours of sleep is bad for your health

    Tom Brady's retirement was actually an NFL mandated suspension

    Hitler killed himself because the alternative was going to Argentina

    Jerry Sandusky is innocent.

    Skin cancer is caused by sunblock, not sunlight

    Hellenistic science knew of quantum mechanics

    Lee Harvey Oswald was an agent of the Hellenistic Civilization

    South Sudan has had nukes since 2023

    Famous Israeli agent Eisseberg was behind the sinking of the Titanic

    xkcd 690: on 9/11, one of the towers was hit by a plane and the other was a controlled demolition

    @HenriThunberg was paid to create the James Bond market to promote the upcoming movie

    Marilyn Monroe had a rib removed in the late 1990s

    Rationalussy isn't real.

    Chinese people really *are* just saying the n-word.

    Tupac is still alive in 2024

    Bielefeld does not exist

    The 2020 US presidential election was rigged/stolen

    Walt Disney was cryogenically frozen, and they made the movie Frozen so that when people googled 'Walt Disney Frozen' the movie would come up first

    The Mandella Effect in general is real

    The Hellenistic Civilization made COVID-19 in a lab

    The North Sentinelese have a non-secret aircraft carrier, they have announced it to the world loud and clear. Problem is: nobody speaks their language.

    US government is harboring aliens

    Monica Lewinsky was a Mossad agent

    Birds aren't real

    climate change isn't human caused

    Effective Altruism is a scam and they just embezzle all the donations

    Jeffrey Epstein is still alive

    Tiger Woods is a militant separatist Tamil

    The Hellenistic civilization invented USB

    The North Sentinelese have a secret aircraft carrier

    Hurricane Katrina caused by HAARP

    Climate change isn’t real

    The moon landing was fake

    The CIA killed Tupac, and JFK is still alive as of 2024

    You personally live in Truman Show style captivity

    The Romance languages are not descended from Latin

    The North Sentinelese are remnants of the Hellenistic civilization

    The 9/11 terror attack was a justified false flag to secure a weapon of mass destruction (destabalizing religious text and/or supertechnology) at the tomb of Gilgamesh.

    The illuminati runs the world

    *All* health care is net negative for health

    Michelle Obama is a man

    Brazilian money is not real

    Yeti is real or similar creature

    Hitler didn't kill himself he went to Argentina

    The earth is a dodecahedron

    Skibidi Toilet is real

    Q is Putin

    It used to be spelled Berenstein Bears

    Africa isn't real

    Christiano Ronaldo never played for a Real football (soccer) team

    There is no female orgasm

    The North Sentinelese are concealing super-advanced technology.

    The earth is flat

    *All* vaccines are net negative for health

    End of the world in 2012

    Earth is hollow

    Justin Trudeau is actually Black and has been wearing "whiteface" all along.

    Finland isn't real

    Australia isn't real.

    5G will kill all vaccinated people once the towers are switched on

    Nuclear weapons have never existed

    Flossing is bad for your health

    Brushing your teeth is bad for your health

    HIV doesn’t cause AIDS

    Taylor Swift and Mary Berg are the same person

    The Epcot sphere was built by aliens as some sort of energy device powering the rat empire.

    Nauru has had a working fusion reactor since 2001

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    What do you think will be GPT-5's "hook"?

    Nov 10, 4:10 PMJan 2, 9:50 AM
    624359

    OptionProbability

    No model picker

    Personalized to you, the user

    Trained on synthetic data

    Very large context window, or another way to give the model long-term memory

    Faster speed(smaller model, architecture improvements, mixture of experts keeping most parameters unused during inference, etc.)

    Designed to inference cheaper than GPT-4(price must be lower)

    Exact-query of training data or knowledge databases(similar to Google RETRO)

    Online learning of specialized agents(finetuning, PEFTs, etc.)

    Operates autonomously with instructions from you

    capable of online learning

    New Neural Network Architecture

    Seed option to create the question

    (Near) real-time update of training data (data delay is within 6 months and is kept updated)

    Audio Modality

    Acts autonomously

    Has a catchier name

    Video Modality

    89

    74

    68

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    38

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    34

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    28

    24

    22

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    1

    OptionProbability

    Has eye tracking

    Has Mac Virtual Display functionality

    Has external battery

    Comes with only one band, that has a part that goes over the top of your head.

    Has built in speakers for audio

    Will have a glass front

    Sells more than 1 million units in its first year

    Priced under $2,000

    Has on-device LLM (e.g. through Siri or standalone) integrated

    Has "Air" in its name

    Primarily made of aluminum

    Has an external display (like eyesight)

    Is released under another CEO than Tim Cook

    Priced under $1000

    Will require an iPhone to operate (relies on that for power, compute or storage).

    Priced lower than $199

    Priced lower than $299

    In consumer hands (anywhere) before April 1st 2025

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    38

    19

    18

    13

    7

    5

    4

    OptionProbability

    Restrictions on deepfake audio, images, or videos of real people

    Restrictions on pornographic deepfakes

    A classification system of AI applications into at least two different risk categories, with different non-empty regulations on each

    Increased liability for harms caused by AI technology

    Restrictions on training models on copyrighted material

    Restrictions on AI models above a certain size or amount of compute

    43

    43

    29

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    20

    13

    OptionVotes

    NO

    YES

    1106

    905

    What will be true of Jester Quest? [Add Answers!]

    Sep 8, 5:07 AMApr 14, 4:57 AM
    3842

    OptionProbability

    Comic ends before Oct 25 [CT]

    Conditional on comic still running, user commands still being generally taken on Oct 8

    Homestuck or SBaHJ are referenced

    The real-world comic Bard Quest updates before 2026 [CT]

    The SBaHJ stairs comic is referenced

    Original audio is used at any point

    Comic is put on homestuck.com or mspaintadventures.com before Oct 25

    100

    100

    100

    28

    14

    0

    0

    OptionProbability

    Released in the United States on April 3, 2026

    Yoshi's voice in the English version is >50% grunts/yells/screams/etc original to the movie

    Donkey Kong physically appears and says an intelligible word

    Bowser is at his ordinary size (no Mini Mushroom or giant form) for at least 35 minutes of runtime

    Yoshi's voice in the English version is >50% real words

    Yoshi's voice in the English version is >50% reused audio from the games

    The word "delve" (or variants) is spoken

    59

    54

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    12

    10

    10

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    1116

    1014

    When will the Red Heart audiobook come out?

    Oct 25, 4:47 PMAug 1, 4:37 PM
    5435

    OptionProbability

    Mar 2026

    Apr 2026

    May 2026 - July 2026

    Feb 2026

    Aug 2026 or later/never

    Jan 2026

    Dec 2025

    33

    19

    16

    15

    11

    5

    1

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    988

    903

    OptionVotes

    NO

    YES

    313

    149

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