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Prediction markets for Austin

Will Austin Chen (Manifold cofounder) be charged with any felony crime before 2030?

Nov 19, 3:41 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

4%chance

7647200

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2392

1284

Will @Austin ever be a billionaire?

Nov 14, 5:11 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

5.2%chance

4328681

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1716

898

If @Austin's wife or child died, would he cry?

Aug 26, 3:25 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

80%chance

232019

OptionVotes

YES

NO

995

952

University of Austin renames itself before 2030?

Apr 18, 6:01 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

25.37%chance

71966

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1715

583

Will Karmelo Anthony be convicted of first-degree murder for the killing of Austin Metcalf?

Apr 18, 11:18 PMJun 2, 12:59 AM

67.55%chance

131356

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1443

693

Conditional on at least dating 6 months before getting married, will Austin and Rachel still be married after 5 years?

Mar 26, 5:33 PMMar 26, 11:59 PM

95.49%chance

151254

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1753

891

Will Austin and Rachel’s child (Ada When) bet on this market by end of 2030?

Jan 18, 5:53 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

38.8%chance

19953

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1139

891

UnflavoredChips (Austin) Stock

Mar 3, 12:55 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

34.54%chance

17874

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1013

987

Will @Austin Chen still believe in God at the end of 2026?

Sep 25, 8:50 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

79.3%chance

18545

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1147

947

How many babies will frequent Austin LW attendees have in 2026?

Jan 3, 9:11 PMJan 4, 5:59 AM

6482

OptionProbability

1

0

2

3

4

5

6 - 7

8 - 9

10 - 12

13+

38

20

8

8

8

6

5

4

2

2

Will Houston -> Austin become an Interstate Highway by 2040?

Nov 30, 1:41 AMJan 2, 5:59 AM

38.09%chance

2373

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1275

784

Will Austin Chen get diagnosed with plasticosis by EOY2039?

Sep 21, 5:11 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

50%chance

139

OptionVotes

NO

YES

100

100

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