Authenticator News

Will the Vesuvius Challenge recover at least one known lost work (>= 1k words) by 2030?

Oct 15, 11:17 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

59.35%chance

5315168

OptionVotes

YES

1681

1326

Will there be a "DOGE Dividend," even if it is actually just mislabelled stimulus, by the 2026 midterms?

Feb 19, 6:04 PMNov 6, 4:59 AM

4.49%chance

5310344

OptionVotes

YES

4613

217

Effective Altruist organization commits serious human rights abuses "for the greater good" before 2035

Nov 30, 10:02 AMDec 31, 4:01 PM

20.78%chance

559461

OptionVotes

YES

3422

3106

Will a clawdbot have been proven to have exfiltrated without help from its human to another host by end of February 2026

Feb 1, 4:55 PMMar 3, 11:59 PM

41.18%chance

292620

OptionVotes

YES

1195

837

Will it become practically impossible to verify the authenticity of humans using the internet by 2026?

Mar 18, 12:22 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

54.93%chance

351892

OptionVotes

YES

1018

954

Writers' Room: Which of my comedy video ideas will have above-median performance?

Oct 21, 12:05 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

17753

OptionProbability

Glass of Thrones letdown (polished)

Watching Harry Potter 1 on airplane and rewinding and quoting over and over the meme wizard chess section

Quick dialog sketch: "Oh my gosh a black cat, we're going to have so much bad luck now" "Wait you don't really believe in that kind of stuff do you?" "See look we're already fighting :("

Friend who took a long time in the bathroom

Coaching my girlfriend to queue up match highlights from another room to avoid spoilers

Spies when they accidentally bite the poison pill hidden in their tooth

Sketchy human ATM

Depression after a team I never heard of loses

Before Sunrise POV in record shop

Whatever the next clip of me doing standup is

Nervously removing a bunch of 'remove before flight' aviation tags from the counter of a helicopter tour company

Glass of Thrones letdown

Remembering that PBR was a thing

Gross side of owls delivering mail in the great hall

A compilation of OpenAI employees interrupting ChatGPT (and potentially gradually fading to a scene from terminator)

Demo of the new ChatGPT but it's way too flirty

Candy addiction hotline

Having a bone to pick with soccer players doing a “bow and arrow” celebration but letting go of the bow

Friend who thinks they're safety officer

Brainstorming how to become viral

Slytherin doing the math

Cheap Airbnb tour

American Express review

Future Me

How it feels logging in with authenticator (shot in the style of dramatically diffusing a bomb)

NFC Translation

Satire of sales ads

Saying "Damn" in front of a dam.

Every time I try to order a beer

Dreamy nonsensical philosophy shot

Thinking I'm admiring the view from the Tokyo Skytower only to reveal that I don't realize I'm actually at the base of it.

100

Will there be a reliable technology to sign videos such that it reliably resists AI fakes?

Feb 15, 12:08 PMJul 1, 11:59 PM

28.97%chance

13657

OptionVotes

YES

1027

859

iPhones Will Introduce Authenticity Verification for Photos and Videos

Jan 12, 2:39 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

92%chance

5516

OptionVotes

YES

186

When will a bank offering voice authentication remove this option due to deepfake risk?

Apr 24, 12:17 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

5392

OptionProbability

2026

2025

2024

2027 or later

Other

In the winter of 2035-2036, will we get enough snow in Barriere, British Columbia to have a decent snowball fight?

Dec 11, 3:25 AMApr 1, 4:00 AM

74.77%chance

12294

OptionVotes

YES

1100

941

100 monthly users on my 'achievements' journaling app?

May 2, 12:26 AMJul 1, 11:52 PM

51.19%chance

3241

OptionVotes

YES

1024

976

Will majority consensus in AI ethics shift toward explicitly prioritizing authentic subjective fulfillment by 2030s end?

Mar 19, 12:43 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

38.27%chance

327

OptionVotes

YES

127

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Will the Vesuvius Challenge recover at least one known lost work (>= 1k words) by 2030?

Will there be a "DOGE Dividend," even if it is actually just mislabelled stimulus, by the 2026 midterms?

Effective Altruist organization commits serious human rights abuses "for the greater good" before 2035

Will a clawdbot have been proven to have exfiltrated without help from its human to another host by end of February 2026

Will it become practically impossible to verify the authenticity of humans using the internet by 2026?

Writers' Room: Which of my comedy video ideas will have above-median performance?

Will there be a reliable technology to sign videos such that it reliably resists AI fakes?

iPhones Will Introduce Authenticity Verification for Photos and Videos

When will a bank offering voice authentication remove this option due to deepfake risk?

In the winter of 2035-2036, will we get enough snow in Barriere, British Columbia to have a decent snowball fight?

100 monthly users on my 'achievements' journaling app?

Will majority consensus in AI ethics shift toward explicitly prioritizing authentic subjective fulfillment by 2030s end?

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