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Prediction markets for Autonomous AI

Will AI be able to rewrite the Linux Kernel from scratch in Rust, mostly autonomously, by EOY 2030?

Jan 2, 2:49 AMJan 1, 9:59 PM

67.58%chance

558521

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1444

693

International treaty limiting autonomous AI weapons before 2030?

Jul 7, 3:56 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

33.01%chance

255857

OptionVotes

YES

NO

14146

7120

By 2030, AI can autonomously prove mathematical theorems that are publishable in mathematics journals today?

Jan 5, 10:58 AMJan 6, 6:29 PM

92.34%chance

374082

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3054

149

Will the United States Air Force integrate an autonomous, AI-controlled fighter jet, like Lockheed's VISTA X-62, into their active service fleet by 2040?

Feb 24, 1:57 AMJan 1, 2:59 AM

73.59%chance

212870

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1221

865

[MIT AI Risk Initiative] Will an AI system autonomously access restricted high-risk systems or data by end of 2045?

Dec 4, 3:33 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

60%chance

5805

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1225

816

Will any state or autonomous region switch to AI governance, or majority AI decision making before 2050?

Jan 2, 1:11 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

45.23%chance

14674

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1252

369

When will a cloud provider attribute an incident resolution to an autonomous AI agent

Feb 25, 4:35 AMDec 31, 12:59 PM

3599

OptionProbability

>=2030

2027

2028

2029

2026

41

20

15

15

9

By 2028, will an AI safety evaluation become a mandatory requirement for autonomous vehicle manufacturers?

Jun 29, 5:53 PMDec 31, 6:29 AM

72.73%chance

16315

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1078

959

Will the number of conflicts involving AI-powered autonomous weapons systems rise by at least 50% within next 10 years?

Apr 9, 9:30 AMDec 31, 6:29 PM

76.15%chance

12270

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1232

880

By 2028, will there be a public instance of an AI cybersecurity system autonomously replicating itself?

Jun 29, 5:55 PMDec 31, 6:29 AM

36.05%chance

16203

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1007

977

Will an AI agent autonomously perform peer-review-quality LHC particle physics analysis by December 2029

Dec 23, 8:21 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

54.55%chance

3121

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1351

1158

When will an AI system autonomously build and operate a production software platform serving 1,000+ active users?

Feb 28, 1:44 AMFeb 28, 1:43 AM

381

OptionProbability

Before Dec 2032

Before Dec 2031

Before Dec 2028

Before Dec 2029

Before Dec 2030

Before Jan 2028

Before Oct 2027

Before Apr 2027

Before Dec 2026

48

47

46

46

46

44

41

37

33

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