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Prediction markets for Autonomous AI

Will AI be able to rewrite the Linux Kernel from scratch in Rust, mostly autonomously, by EOY 2030?

Jan 2, 2:49 AMJan 1, 9:59 PM

33%chance

506638

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1425

702

International treaty limiting autonomous AI weapons before 2030?

Jul 7, 3:56 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

38.05%chance

234313

OptionVotes

YES

NO

12657

7939

Will the United States Air Force integrate an autonomous, AI-controlled fighter jet, like Lockheed's VISTA X-62, into their active service fleet by 2040?

Feb 24, 1:57 AMJan 1, 2:59 AM

73.59%chance

212870

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1221

865

By 2030, AI can autonomously prove mathematical theorems that are publishable in mathematics journals today?

Jan 5, 10:58 AMJan 6, 6:29 PM

69.53%chance

342567

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1647

426

[MIT AI Risk Initiative] Will an AI system autonomously access restricted high-risk systems or data by end of 2045?

Dec 4, 3:33 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

60%chance

5805

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1225

816

When will an AI model capable of autonomously generating accurate and complete book summaries be commonly available?

Apr 10, 8:54 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

14727

OptionProbability

2024-2025.52

2025.52-2027.04

2027.04-2028.56

2033.12-2034.64

2034.64-2036.16

2036.16-2037.68

2037.68-2039.2

2039.2-2040.72

2040.72-2042.24

2042.24-2043.76

2043.76-2045.28

2045.28-2046.8

2046.8-2048.32

2048.32-2049.84

2049.84-2051.36

2028.56-2030.08

2031.6-2033.12

2051.36-2052.88

2052.88-2054.4

2054.4-2055.92

2055.92-2057.44

2030.08-2031.6

2057.44-2058.96

2058.96-2060.48

2060.48-2062

2062-2063.52

2063.52-2065.04

2065.04-2066.56

2066.56-2068.08

2068.08-2069.6

2069.6-2071.12

2071.12-2072.64

2072.64-2074.16

2074.16-2075.68

2075.68-2077.2

2077.2-2078.72

2078.72-2080.24

2080.24-2081.76

2081.76-2083.28

2083.28-2084.8

2084.8-2086.32

2086.32-2087.84

2087.84-2089.36

2089.36-2090.88

2090.88-2092.4

2092.4-2093.92

2093.92-2095.44

2095.44-2096.96

2096.96-2098.48

2098.48-2100

51

13

4

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

1

1

1

1

1

1

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Will any state or autonomous region switch to AI governance, or majority AI decision making before 2050?

Jan 2, 1:11 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

45.23%chance

14674

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1252

369

By 2028, will an AI safety evaluation become a mandatory requirement for autonomous vehicle manufacturers?

Jun 29, 5:53 PMDec 31, 6:29 AM

72.73%chance

16315

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1078

959

Will the number of conflicts involving AI-powered autonomous weapons systems rise by at least 50% within next 10 years?

Apr 9, 9:30 AMDec 31, 6:29 PM

76.15%chance

12270

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1232

880

Will an AI agent autonomously perform peer-review-quality LHC particle physics analysis by December 2029

Dec 23, 8:21 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

54.55%chance

3121

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1351

1158

By 2028, will there be a public instance of an AI cybersecurity system autonomously replicating itself?

Jun 29, 5:55 PMDec 31, 6:29 AM

35.98%chance

14110

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1006

979

[Carlini questions] Majority of consumer AI applications will operate autonomously on multi-step tasks by year

Mar 24, 2:19 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

570

OptionProbability

By 1st Jan 2030

By 1st Jan 2029

By 1st Jan 2028

By 1st Jan 2027

By 1st Jan 2026

66

60

46

44

16

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