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Prediction markets for Avail

Will good quality personalised AI novels be instantly and cheaply available by the end of 2027?

Jun 27, 3:49 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

60%chance

17445547

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1585

1297

Will fully autonomous (level 5) self-driving cars be available in a major US city before 2030?

Apr 4, 8:35 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

78.88%chance

12723740

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3769

1429

In twenty years, will the best evidence available suggest that sperm counts have been substantially declining across most of the world?

Feb 17, 4:36 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

35%chance

18914872

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3617

1599

Will a nontoxic MDMA-like drug be legally available in the US by 2030?

May 8, 8:39 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

24.51%chance

5014608

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2801

671

Will we have flying cars commercially available by the year 2035?

Aug 25, 12:35 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

33.18%chance

6512468

OptionVotes

YES

NO

977

933

In which year will Artificial General Rationalussy become available?

Oct 14, 9:19 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

163915

OptionProbability

2030s

2020s

2060s or later

2040s

2050s

35

24

16

13

13

Will Neuralink be available for people without a disability in the US by 2035?

Mar 21, 4:28 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

62.94%chance

652900

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1491

500

Will anti-aging treatments developed, approved and available for public usage by 2040?

Jan 17, 9:32 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

38.16%chance

432108

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1479

346

Will level 4 self-driving cars be generally available in the US before 2030?

Jan 4, 7:52 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

51%chance

181206

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1021

981

Will the Internet Archive be available in 2046?

Mar 19, 12:52 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

78.62%chance

391186

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2064

1751

Will a new tuberculosis vaccine be available by the end of 2032?

Sep 26, 4:09 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

79%chance

191018

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2724

1746

Will medically safe ribcage depth reduction of 3+ inches be commercially available by 2100?

Aug 18, 11:18 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

56.04%chance

7257

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1149

906

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