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Prediction markets for Avail

Will good quality personalised AI novels be instantly and cheaply available by the end of 2027?

Jun 27, 3:49 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

45%chance

16740007

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1703

1135

Will fully autonomous (level 5) self-driving cars be available in a major US city before 2030?

Apr 4, 8:35 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

80.6%chance

11822685

OptionVotes

NO

YES

4012

1368

Will a nontoxic MDMA-like drug be legally available in the US by 2030?

May 8, 8:39 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

24.03%chance

4914598

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2832

661

In twenty years, will the best evidence available suggest that sperm counts have been substantially declining across most of the world?

Feb 17, 4:36 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

64%chance

18313303

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3081

2111

Will we have flying cars commercially available by the year 2035?

Aug 25, 12:35 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

31.15%chance

6212367

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1039

903

In which year will Artificial General Rationalussy become available?

Oct 14, 9:19 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

163915

OptionProbability

2030s

2020s

2060s or later

2040s

2050s

35

24

16

13

13

Will the panorama experience of the Apple Vision Pro be available for the 2026 Super Bowl?

Feb 12, 8:42 PMFeb 16, 4:59 AM

14.73%chance

233627

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2131

161

Will Neuralink be available for people without a disability in the US by 2035?

Mar 21, 4:28 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

64.01%chance

652875

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1516

485

Will anti-aging treatments developed, approved and available for public usage by 2040?

Jan 17, 9:32 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

40.26%chance

422048

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1444

369

Will the Internet Archive be available in 2046?

Mar 19, 12:52 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

78.07%chance

381136

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2014

1765

Will level 4 self-driving cars be generally available in the US before 2030?

Jan 4, 7:52 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

48.78%chance

131089

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1026

977

Will medically safe ribcage depth reduction of 3+ inches be commercially available by 2100?

Aug 18, 11:18 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

56.04%chance

7257

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1149

906

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