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Prediction markets for Avail

Will good quality personalised AI novels be instantly and cheaply available by the end of 2027?

Jun 27, 3:49 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

44.44%chance

15835470

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1721

1121

Will fully autonomous (level 5) self-driving cars be available in a major US city before 2030?

Apr 4, 8:35 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

83%chance

11419905

OptionVotes

NO

YES

4405

1278

Will a nontoxic MDMA-like drug be legally available in the US by 2030?

May 8, 8:39 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

24.03%chance

4914598

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2832

661

♻️ 🧟 Will composting of human remains be available in Delaware by 2025?

Apr 7, 2:14 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

58.61%chance

2012668

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3211

688

Will we have flying cars commercially available by the year 2035?

Aug 25, 12:35 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

32.78%chance

6112317

OptionVotes

YES

NO

989

927

In twenty years, will the best evidence available suggest that sperm counts have been substantially declining across most of the world?

Feb 17, 4:36 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

73.07%chance

18312142

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3887

1744

Will the Tesla Bot be available by 2028?

Oct 2, 1:11 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

33.68%chance

539738

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1290

776

Will a hybrid cultivated and plant-based meat product be commercially available in the US by 2025?

Mar 3, 1:27 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

21.89%chance

698353

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2013

291

In which year will Artificial General Rationalussy become available?

Oct 14, 9:19 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

163915

OptionProbability

2030s

2020s

2060s or later

2040s

2050s

35

24

16

13

13

Will Neuralink be available for people without a disability in the US by 2035?

Mar 21, 4:28 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

64.01%chance

652875

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1516

485

Will a vaccine for Lyme disease be available to the US public by the end of 2025?

Aug 10, 11:37 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

16.39%chance

261990

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2446

536

Will the Internet Archive be available in 2046?

Mar 19, 12:52 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

78.07%chance

381136

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2014

1765

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