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Prediction markets for AVS

What's the average IQ of active manifold users? (PERMANENT)

Apr 27, 8:33 PMDec 27, 10:59 PM

56.23%chance

140101362

OptionProbability

NO

YES

1436

1240

Will good quality personalised AI novels be instantly and cheaply available by the end of 2027?

Jun 27, 3:49 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

47%chance

16739510

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1643

1186

Will fully autonomous (level 5) self-driving cars be available in a major US city before 2030?

Apr 4, 8:35 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

86.33%chance

11621255

OptionVotes

NO

YES

5123

1149

Will a nontoxic MDMA-like drug be legally available in the US by 2030?

May 8, 8:39 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

24.03%chance

4914598

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2832

661

♻️ 🧟 Will composting of human remains be available in Delaware by 2025?

Apr 7, 2:14 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

12.75%chance

2113899

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4328

96

In twenty years, will the best evidence available suggest that sperm counts have been substantially declining across most of the world?

Feb 17, 4:36 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

73.07%chance

18312142

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3887

1744

What will be Argentina's average annual real GDP growth during the presidency of Javier Milei?

Nov 20, 2:44 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

1288465

OptionProbability

Between 2% and 4%

Between 4% and 6%

More than 6%

Between 0% and 2%

< -2%

Between -2% and 0%

Other

33

32

17

11

4

3

0

In which year will Artificial General Rationalussy become available?

Oct 14, 9:19 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

163915

OptionProbability

2030s

2020s

2060s or later

2040s

2050s

35

24

16

13

13

Will Tesla obtain an AV Driverless Testing or Deployment Permit from the CA DMV by the end of 2025

Apr 12, 4:55 PMJan 6, 7:59 AM

35.98%chance

342243

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1141

887

Will Cruise re-obtain an AV Driverless Testing or Deployment Permit from the CA DMV by the end of 2025

Apr 10, 7:56 PMJan 6, 7:59 AM

1%chance

61349

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1419

15

Will the Internet Archive be available in 2046?

Mar 19, 12:52 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

78.07%chance

381136

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2014

1765

AV Question #1: [Private]

Jun 10, 8:35 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

52.36%chance

150

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1048

954

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