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Prediction markets for AVS

Will fully autonomous (level 5) self-driving cars be available in a major US city before 2030?

Apr 4, 8:35 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

78.43%chance

12322815

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3710

1445

Will Tesla obtain an AV Driverless Testing or Deployment Permit from the CA DMV by the end of 2026

Jan 5, 8:01 PMJan 7, 7:59 AM

3.77%chance

118363

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5058

198

Will Vic NEM 2027 annual average wholesale price exceed A$105/MWh?

May 4, 8:35 PMMay 31, 11:00 PM

43.1%chance

53790

OptionVotes

YES

NO

17520

12743

Will OMIE Spain 2028 annual average wholesale price exceed €65/MWh?

May 4, 8:35 PMMay 31, 11:00 PM

45.46%chance

2751

OptionVotes

YES

NO

10751

9328

Will WA SWIS 2027 annual average wholesale price exceed A$135/MWh?

May 4, 8:35 PMMay 31, 11:00 PM

33.38%chance

3511

OptionVotes

YES

NO

10479

9751

Will Vic NEM 2028 annual average wholesale price exceed A$115/MWh?

May 4, 8:35 PMMay 31, 11:00 PM

40.92%chance

2501

OptionVotes

YES

NO

10499

9640

Will MISO Indiana Hub 2027 day-ahead annual average exceed US$55/MWh?

May 4, 8:35 PMMay 31, 11:00 PM

43.91%chance

2501

OptionVotes

NO

YES

10501

9321

Will MISO Indiana Hub 2028 day-ahead annual average exceed US$60/MWh?

May 4, 8:35 PMMay 31, 11:00 PM

36.34%chance

3206

OptionVotes

NO

YES

10206

9628

Will Zoox obtain an AV Driverless Deployment Permit from the CA DMV by the end of 2026

Jan 12, 4:17 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

58.06%chance

5197

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1177

850

Will Nord Pool 2027 system price annual average exceed €45/MWh?

May 4, 8:35 PMMay 31, 11:00 PM

50.07%chance

115

OptionVotes

NO

YES

10015

9985

Will OMIE Spain 2027 annual average wholesale price exceed €60/MWh?

May 4, 8:35 PMMay 31, 11:00 PM

55.99%chance

11

OptionVotes

YES

NO

10001

9999

Will Nord Pool 2028 system price annual average exceed €45/MWh?

May 4, 8:35 PMMay 31, 11:00 PM

52%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

10000

10000

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