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Top stories

Stanford-Founded Casca Raises $29 Million to Accelerate AI-Driven Loan Origination Funding Loans 10x Faster Than Fintechs

Stanford-Founded Casca Raises $29 Million to Accelerate AI-Driven Loan Origination Funding Loans 10x Faster Than Fintechs

Authors

6

6 months ago

Salesloft Breach via Drift AI Chat from August 8-18 Exposes OAuth Tokens, Compromising Numerous Salesforce Customers, Google Warns

Salesloft Breach via Drift AI Chat from August 8-18 Exposes OAuth Tokens, Compromising Numerous Salesforce Customers, Google Warns

Authors

7

5 months ago

Prediction markets for AWS

WIll Dr Jonathan Sackner Bernstein (Parkinson's researcher) win a major medicine/biology award by mid 2036

Jun 23, 5:05 PMJul 1, 6:59 AM

9.13%chance

221550

OptionVotes

YES

NO

31548

3170

Will Elon Musk get a chip implanted in his brain before he passes away?

Jan 30, 7:05 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

36.13%chance

11518640

OptionVotes

YES

NO

15117

7622

Will the first AI-generated song win a major music award (like a Grammy, MTV VMA, or similar) by the end of 2026?

Nov 17, 2:49 PMJan 1, 4:59 PM

20.22%chance

3511669

OptionVotes

YES

NO

19862

5039

Will 50% or more of AWS developers stop coding for AWS in the next 24 months?

Sep 2, 2:49 PMSep 10, 2:59 AM

10.39%chance

384595

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2936

341

Which of the following will be sold off before parent company reaches 10T?

Jan 17, 8:45 PMFeb 25, 5:59 AM

483261

OptionProbability

Starlink

Tesla Robotics (embodied ai)

Microsoft Teams

AWS

Google ads

Reality labs

Apple App store

Omniverse

64

41

41

34

34

26

25

23

Which episode of Black Mirror is the next 25 years most likely to resemble?

Aug 18, 5:50 PMJan 2, 5:59 AM

332036

OptionProbability

Metalhead

Joan is Awful

Other

Hated in the Nation

USS Callister

Fifteen Million Merits

San Junipero

The Waldo Moment

White Christmas

Hang the DJ

Nosedive

The Entire History of You

Shut up and Dance

The National Anthem

Archange

16

13

13

12

10

7

6

6

4

3

3

3

1

1

0

Why will "If Artificial General Intelligence has an okay outcome, what will be the reason?" resolve N/A?

Mar 25, 2:57 AMMar 28, 3:59 AM

17826

OptionProbability

It will not resolve N/A

Too many existing humans suffer death

The concept of "maximum attainable cosmopolitan value" is not meaningful

80% of currently attainable cosmopolitan value becomes unattainable

As a demonstration of treacherous turns, trolling, or lulz

Some other reason

Too many existing humans suffer other awful fates

No reason given after 30 days

33

18

16

14

7

6

5

2

Which Cloud Provider will have the next major outage?

Dec 6, 5:41 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

6118

OptionProbability

AWS

Azure

Cloudflare

Oracle Cloud

GCP

38

38

10

8

6

AWS or Microsoft release own frontier AI model?

May 7, 5:01 PMDec 31, 5:59 PM

74.99%chance

6115

OptionVotes

NO

YES

173

58

The game awards 2026: Flute guy blows into >3 instruments

Dec 13, 4:15 AMDec 11, 4:15 AM

29.22%chance

759

OptionVotes

YES

NO

156

64

Will AWS have an operating margin >= 30% for 2028?

Oct 18, 1:33 AMJan 31, 7:59 AM

40.98%chance

120

OptionVotes

YES

NO

120

83

Favorite cloud-computing platform?

Oct 12, 5:37 PMOct 13, 5:36 PM

220

OptionProbability

Amazon AWS

Microsoft Azure

Google Cloud

Other

41

21

21

16

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