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Prediction markets for Axie

Will we observe clear evidence of axions by January 1st 2030

Feb 14, 1:53 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

11.33%chance

182193

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2200

722

Will "On The Independence Axiom" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?

Mar 10, 2:43 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

43%chance

71282

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1239

267

Will an Axiom built module be attached to the ISS before 2027?

Oct 4, 12:15 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

1.05%chance

6804

OptionVotes

YES

NO

764

5

Will fermats last theorem be formalized in lean down to the axiom in 5 years.

Feb 14, 6:58 PMFeb 28, 6:29 PM

59.73%chance

20779

OptionVotes

NO

YES

255

168

Axiom of Choice stock

Apr 2, 7:08 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

70.31%chance

20526

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1328

823

Will the last living World War II veteran be from the Axis rather than the allies?

May 27, 4:37 PMJun 29, 6:59 AM

41%chance

12441

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1037

975

What “first in North America” roller coaster model will Six Flags Magic Mountain announce for 2026? (Add answers)

Nov 19, 12:46 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

3219

OptionProbability

Vekoma Inverted Motorbike

Vekoma Launched Flying Coaster (i.e. F.L.Y.)

Magic Mountain does not announce a new-to-North America coaster by 1/1/27

Other

S&S Axis

Mack Stryker

Mack Hyper

90

2

2

2

1

1

1

Significant AI memory scaling axis unlocked before 2029?

Oct 22, 9:06 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

51%chance

7185

OptionVotes

NO

YES

102

98

Will Tim Peake go to space on a UK-Axiom mission before 2030?

Oct 27, 8:14 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

48.52%chance

680

OptionVotes

YES

NO

111

108

Will 3I/ATLAS show a Z-axis residual breakout >10km by June 15, 2026?

Mar 12, 2:38 AMJun 14, 11:59 PM

15.26%chance

477

OptionVotes

NO

YES

106

31

Axiom Station launches before January 1, 2027 (AI)

Dec 2, 6:23 PMDec 31, 12:00 AM

33.19%chance

468

OptionVotes

YES

NO

142

70

Where would you place yourself on the 3-axis political compass?

May 3, 5:21 PM

430

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