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Prediction markets for Axiom

Is the answer to the Sleeping Beauty Problem 1/3?

Jun 28, 2:39 AMOct 28, 11:33 AM

39.01%chance

7330993

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1328

615

Will AIs be widely recognized as having developed a new, innovative, foundational mathematical theory before 2030?

Jul 24, 7:30 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

31.46%chance

10619842

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1771

1288

Will we get an "ought" from an "is" before 2030?

Jan 11, 10:26 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

20%chance

293545

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1739

702

Will AIs be widely recognized as having developed a new, innovative, foundational mathematical theory before 2035?

Jul 24, 7:37 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

42.89%chance

272654

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1152

864

Would an AI be capable of constructing a non-brute, ultraweak proof of chess for this board state by 2030?

Jun 26, 8:30 AMJan 2, 5:59 AM

48.71%chance

121255

OptionVotes

YES

NO

10481

9520

Will an Axiom built module be attached to the ISS before 2027?

Oct 4, 12:15 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

1.05%chance

6804

OptionVotes

YES

NO

764

5

Will fermats last theorem be formalized in lean down to the axiom in 5 years.

Feb 14, 6:58 PMFeb 22, 6:29 PM

48.71%chance

17579

OptionVotes

YES

NO

211

204

Axiom of Choice stock

Apr 2, 7:08 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

70.31%chance

20526

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1328

823

What company will be the first to put up a commercial space station?

Jul 26, 10:27 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

10220

OptionProbability

Vast

Axiom

Blue Origin

SpaceX

Sierra Space

Voyager

Nanoracks

Northrop Grumman

Other

62

10

10

10

2

2

2

2

2

What company will be the first to put up a commercial space station?

Jul 26, 9:26 PMJan 3, 7:59 AM

3130

OptionProbability

Vast

Other

Axiom

Blue Origin

Sierra Space

Voyager

SpaceX

Nanoracks

Northrop Grumman

100

50

22

22

22

22

22

22

22

Will Tim Peake go to space on a UK-Axiom mission before 2030?

Oct 27, 8:14 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

48.52%chance

680

OptionVotes

YES

NO

111

108

Axiom Station launches before January 1, 2027 (AI)

Dec 2, 6:23 PMDec 31, 12:00 AM

33.19%chance

468

OptionVotes

YES

NO

142

70

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