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Prediction markets for Axiom

Is the answer to the Sleeping Beauty Problem 1/3?

Jun 28, 2:39 AMOct 28, 11:33 AM

44.86%chance

7733207

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1200

707

Will AIs be widely recognized as having developed a new, innovative, foundational mathematical theory before 2030?

Jul 24, 7:30 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

39.56%chance

11127194

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1478

1425

Would an AI be capable of constructing a non-brute, ultraweak proof of chess for this board state by 2030?

Jun 26, 8:30 AMJan 2, 5:59 AM

47.84%chance

125581

OptionVotes

YES

NO

10661

9352

Will we get an "ought" from an "is" before 2030?

Jan 11, 10:26 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

20%chance

293545

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1739

702

What company will be the first to put up a commercial space station?

Jul 26, 10:27 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

111017

OptionProbability

Vast

Axiom

Blue Origin

SpaceX

Sierra Space

Voyager

Nanoracks

Northrop Grumman

Other

76

16

6

1

0

0

0

0

0

Will "On The Independence Axiom" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?

Mar 10, 2:43 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

55.31%chance

6942

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1328

175

Will an Axiom built module be attached to the ISS before 2027?

Oct 4, 12:15 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

1.05%chance

6804

OptionVotes

YES

NO

764

5

Will fermats last theorem be formalized in lean down to the axiom in 5 years.

Feb 14, 6:58 PMFeb 28, 6:29 PM

59.73%chance

20779

OptionVotes

NO

YES

255

168

Axiom of Choice stock

Apr 2, 7:08 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

70.31%chance

20526

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1328

823

What company will be the first to put up a commercial space station?

Jul 26, 9:26 PMJan 3, 7:59 AM

3130

OptionProbability

Vast

Other

Axiom

Blue Origin

Sierra Space

Voyager

SpaceX

Nanoracks

Northrop Grumman

100

50

22

22

22

22

22

22

22

Will Tim Peake go to space on a UK-Axiom mission before 2030?

Oct 27, 8:14 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

48.52%chance

680

OptionVotes

YES

NO

111

108

Axiom Station launches before January 1, 2027 (AI)

Dec 2, 6:23 PMDec 31, 12:00 AM

33.19%chance

468

OptionVotes

YES

NO

142

70

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