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Prediction markets for Axios

Will the US invade Iran's Kharg Island by the end of 2026?

Mar 11, 4:44 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

12%chance

957703

OptionVotes

YES

NO

271

37

Will xAI replace Anthropic's DoW deal?

Feb 26, 11:05 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

10.07%chance

275257

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2989

335

Will we observe clear evidence of axions by January 1st 2030

Feb 14, 1:53 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

11.33%chance

182193

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2200

722

Will Warren Buffet family's yet-to-be-named ~$127B charitable trust donate to any Effective Altruist orgs prior to 2030?

Jul 2, 9:19 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

34.79%chance

141630

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1809

1260

Will "On The Independence Axiom" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?

Mar 10, 2:43 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

43.71%chance

81287

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1244

261

Will an Axiom built module be attached to the ISS before 2027?

Oct 4, 12:15 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

1.05%chance

6804

OptionVotes

YES

NO

764

5

Will fermats last theorem be formalized in lean down to the axiom in 5 years.

Feb 14, 6:58 PMFeb 28, 6:29 PM

59.73%chance

20779

OptionVotes

NO

YES

255

168

Axiom of Choice stock

Apr 2, 7:08 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

70.31%chance

20526

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1328

823

Will Fable 5 be reenabled for Everyone at the same time?

Jun 22, 6:25 PMDec 31, 7:24 PM

54%chance

16280

OptionVotes

NO

YES

108

92

Rippling wins its lawsuit against Deel by 2028?

May 12, 5:33 PMJan 1, 6:33 PM

52.98%chance

5183

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1061

942

Will Tim Peake go to space on a UK-Axiom mission before 2030?

Oct 27, 8:14 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

48.52%chance

680

OptionVotes

YES

NO

111

108

Axiom Station launches before January 1, 2027 (AI)

Dec 2, 6:23 PMDec 31, 12:00 AM

33.19%chance

468

OptionVotes

YES

NO

142

70

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