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Prediction markets for Axis
Will we observe clear evidence of axions by January 1st 2030
Feb 14, 1:53 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM
12.94%chance
171967
OptionVotes
1973
753
Will >10 EA who had <$100M in Feb 28 2021 become a billionaire (in 2021 dollars) by Feb 28 2031, *including* crypto or inheritance?
Dec 10, 1:36 PMFeb 28, 5:00 AM
74.85%chance
211778
OptionVotes
1653
156
Will an Axiom built module be attached to the ISS before 2027?
Oct 4, 12:15 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM
1.05%chance
6804
OptionVotes
764
5
Will fermats last theorem be formalized in lean down to the axiom in 5 years.
Feb 14, 6:58 PMFeb 22, 6:29 PM
48.71%chance
17579
OptionVotes
211
204
OptionVotes
1328
823
Will the last living World War II veteran be from the Axis rather than the allies?
May 27, 4:37 PMJun 29, 6:59 AM
41%chance
12441
OptionVotes
1037
975
Will a high-ranking Trump Administration official (incl Musk) describe the US as being in an "axis" with Russia in 2025?
Mar 2, 2:00 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
15.49%chance
11275
OptionVotes
234
43
What “first in North America” roller coaster model will Six Flags Magic Mountain announce for 2026? (Add answers)
Nov 19, 12:46 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM
3217
OptionProbability
88
5
2
2
1
1
1
Will "Using axis lines for good or evil" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?
Mar 10, 3:48 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM
4.34%chance
1200
OptionVotes
320
104
Will Tim Peake go to space on a UK-Axiom mission before 2030?
Oct 27, 8:14 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM
48.52%chance
680
OptionVotes
111
108
OptionVotes
142
70