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Prediction markets for AXS

axusus (Andrew Xu) makes MOP 2026?

May 9, 1:11 AMApr 20, 10:59 PM

7.83%chance

3511489

OptionVotes

YES

NO

343

29

Will we observe clear evidence of axions by January 1st 2030

Feb 14, 1:53 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

11.33%chance

182193

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2200

722

[Ṁ200 subsidy] Will the BBC licence fee be axed by the end of 2028?

Aug 3, 11:25 PMDec 31, 3:59 PM

30.74%chance

231305

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1035

963

Will "On The Independence Axiom" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?

Mar 10, 2:43 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

55.31%chance

6942

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1328

175

Will fermats last theorem be formalized in lean down to the axiom in 5 years.

Feb 14, 6:58 PMFeb 28, 6:29 PM

59.73%chance

20779

OptionVotes

NO

YES

255

168

Axiom of Choice stock

Apr 2, 7:08 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

70.31%chance

20526

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1328

823

Will the last living World War II veteran be from the Axis rather than the allies?

May 27, 4:37 PMJun 29, 6:59 AM

41%chance

12441

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1037

975

Significant AI memory scaling axis unlocked before 2029?

Oct 22, 9:06 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

51%chance

7185

OptionVotes

NO

YES

102

98

Will the wild population of the Axolotl (Ambystoma mexicanum) become extinct by 2100?

Mar 1, 11:21 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

73.61%chance

6171

OptionVotes

NO

YES

575

457

Will Axel Dumas (CEO of Hermès) be charged with a serious crime before 2030?

Apr 14, 11:40 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

9.65%chance

2103

OptionVotes

YES

NO

173

36

Will an axolotl unit (cheat code counts) appear in Age of Mythology: Retold by EOY 2034?

Sep 16, 7:57 AMSep 24, 3:59 AM

45.25%chance

110

OptionVotes

YES

NO

110

91

Will Jose Ricon OR Adam Marblestone OR Ed Boyden OR Steve Horvath OR Jeremy nixon get a pet axolotl by 2032?

Sep 16, 7:51 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

45.25%chance

110

OptionVotes

YES

NO

110

91

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