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Prediction markets for Back in Action

Will Vladimir Putin’s death be the result of an assassination?

Jun 15, 6:28 PMJan 2, 5:59 AM

32.24%chance

15613392

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1591

936

Will Russia invade a new country by the end of 2030?

Jun 11, 7:40 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

43.06%chance

556617

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1153

872

Will there exist popular smart glasses with LLM integration by 2027?

Apr 8, 6:49 PMJan 1, 6:29 PM

88.22%chance

394318

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2127

662

Mark Zuckerberg either divorced or separated by July 1, 2026

Jan 23, 7:37 PMJul 1, 4:59 AM

7.98%chance

374183

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3397

294

Will there exist popular smart glasses with LLM integration by 2030?

Apr 8, 6:49 PMJan 1, 6:29 PM

85.66%chance

434022

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3633

1265

2030 – 5. AI-driven job loss will be one of the most widely discussed political and social issues.

Mar 11, 12:09 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

71.93%chance

163414

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1009

979

Will any advanced AI chip fabs or their key supply chains be heavily physically damaged deliberately by 2028?

Nov 3, 6:13 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

25.45%chance

281988

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1205

883

Will I get my money back from the cruise casino?

Feb 7, 7:54 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

52%chance

10704

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1249

1156

Will China turn on Russia before 2030?

Jan 13, 4:38 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

53.64%chance

11483

OptionVotes

NO

YES

108

93

Is Anthropic woke?

Feb 26, 1:34 AMJul 1, 4:59 AM

82.72%chance

8390

OptionVotes

NO

YES

219

46

Will the US concede Taiwan to the PRC before 2030?

Mar 1, 4:06 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

24.28%chance

7315

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1051

819

Which China pundits may eventually be found to be assets of the CCP?

Jan 16, 9:41 PMJul 1, 6:59 AM

570

OptionProbability

Jeffrey Sachs

Huey Li (and the news)

SerpentZA

Laowhy86

Nicholas Kristof

Michael Pettis

Peter Hessler

James Fallows

Kevin D Walmsley of Inside China Business

Liziqi

Nathan Rich

Living in China

Jerry Kowal

Significant effort (10k+ posts) to manipulate comment threads on hacker news.

Asia Society Policy Institute

Yale Center Beijing

Brookings Institution (China Center)

Blondie in China

Elon Musk

Bill Bishop, Sinocism

52

50

50

50

50

50

50

50

50

50

50

50

50

50

50

50

50

50

41

40

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