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Prediction markets for Back in Action

Will Vladimir Putin’s death be the result of an assassination?

Jun 15, 6:28 PMJan 2, 5:59 AM

32.85%chance

15513372

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1600

916

Will Russia invade a new country by the end of 2030?

Jun 11, 7:40 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

43.06%chance

556617

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1153

872

Will there exist popular smart glasses with LLM integration by 2027?

Apr 8, 6:49 PMJan 1, 6:29 PM

88.27%chance

384317

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2134

661

Mark Zuckerberg either divorced or separated by July 1, 2026

Jan 23, 7:37 PMJul 1, 4:59 AM

7.98%chance

374183

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3397

294

Will there exist popular smart glasses with LLM integration by 2030?

Apr 8, 6:49 PMJan 1, 6:29 PM

85.66%chance

434022

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3633

1265

2030 – 5. AI-driven job loss will be one of the most widely discussed political and social issues.

Mar 11, 12:09 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

71.93%chance

163414

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1009

979

Which Russian regions will hold referendums and declare independence from the Russian Federation by 2040?

Oct 17, 10:23 AMDec 30, 11:59 PM

93132

OptionProbability

Ingria

Chechnya (Ichkeria)

Zaporozhye (Zaporizhzhia) Oblast

Kaliningrad (Königsberg)

Bashkortostan

Tatarstan

Udmurtia

Chuvashia

Sakha (Yakutia)

Karelia

Dagestan

Buryatia

31

16

15

10

8

8

8

8

8

8

8

8

Will any advanced AI chip fabs or their key supply chains be heavily physically damaged deliberately by 2028?

Nov 3, 6:13 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

25.45%chance

281988

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1205

883

Will I get my money back from the cruise casino?

Feb 7, 7:54 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

53.8%chance

8593

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1295

1115

How many interventions will Trump start in his second term?

Jan 16, 12:49 AMJan 16, 8:59 PM

1543

OptionProbability

20 - 29

5 - 9

10 - 14

15 - 19

30 - 39

0 - 4

40 - 50

22

16

16

16

11

10

7

Credible evidence that Iran was involved in Bondi Beach shooting?

Dec 31, 8:02 AMJul 1, 6:52 AM

4.28%chance

16468

OptionVotes

YES

NO

473

21

Will the next president of USA revert to Gulf of Mexico

Feb 11, 8:20 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

37.8%chance

9137

OptionVotes

YES

NO

128

78

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