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Prediction markets for Back in Action

Will Vladimir Putin’s death be the result of an assassination?

Jun 15, 6:28 PMJan 2, 5:59 AM

29.94%chance

15713515

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1554

1018

Mark Zuckerberg either divorced or separated by July 1, 2026

Jan 23, 7:37 PMJul 1, 4:59 AM

2.26%chance

428433

OptionVotes

YES

NO

6576

152

Will Russia invade a new country by the end of 2030?

Jun 11, 7:40 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

54.51%chance

576906

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1098

916

Will there exist popular smart glasses with LLM integration by 2027?

Apr 8, 6:49 PMJan 1, 6:29 PM

87.15%chance

404338

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1984

682

Will there exist popular smart glasses with LLM integration by 2030?

Apr 8, 6:49 PMJan 1, 6:29 PM

85.66%chance

434022

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3633

1265

2030 – 5. AI-driven job loss will be one of the most widely discussed political and social issues.

Mar 11, 12:09 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

75.68%chance

173564

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1159

926

Will any advanced AI chip fabs or their key supply chains be heavily physically damaged deliberately by 2028?

Nov 3, 6:13 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

25.45%chance

281988

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1205

883

Will we learn that Anthropic lied to investors about operating profitable in Q2 2026 before 2028?

May 25, 8:51 PMFeb 1, 4:59 AM

11.02%chance

111566

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1753

147

Will I get my money back from the cruise casino?

Feb 7, 7:54 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

57.08%chance

12828

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1384

1044

Will the US concede Taiwan to the PRC before 2030?

Mar 1, 4:06 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

22.59%chance

12744

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1031

884

[Metaculus] Will a cryonically frozen individual be resuscitated before 2100?

Oct 6, 11:55 PMJan 3, 5:00 AM

37.79%chance

14493

OptionVotes

NO

YES

186

76

[Carlini questions] Majority of consumer AI applications will operate autonomously on multi-step tasks by year

Mar 24, 2:19 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

570

OptionProbability

By 1st Jan 2030

By 1st Jan 2029

By 1st Jan 2028

By 1st Jan 2027

By 1st Jan 2026

66

60

46

44

16

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