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Prediction markets for Back in Action

Will Vladimir Putin’s death be the result of an assassination?

Jun 15, 6:28 PMJan 2, 5:59 AM

26.66%chance

15313256

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1500

1155

Will Russia invade a new country by the end of 2030?

Jun 11, 7:40 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

56.38%chance

516244

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1137

880

Will there exist popular smart glasses with LLM integration by 2027?

Apr 8, 6:49 PMJan 1, 6:29 PM

88.27%chance

384317

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2134

661

Mark Zuckerberg either divorced or separated by July 1, 2026

Jan 23, 7:37 PMJul 31, 4:59 AM

7.98%chance

374183

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3397

294

Will there exist popular smart glasses with LLM integration by 2030?

Apr 8, 6:49 PMJan 1, 6:29 PM

85.66%chance

434022

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3633

1265

2030 – 5. AI-driven job loss will be one of the most widely discussed political and social issues.

Mar 11, 12:09 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

71.93%chance

163414

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1009

979

Will any advanced AI chip fabs or their key supply chains be heavily physically damaged deliberately by 2028?

Nov 3, 6:13 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

25.45%chance

281988

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1205

883

Which Russian regions will hold referendums and declare independence from the Russian Federation by 2040?

Oct 17, 10:23 AMDec 30, 11:59 PM

61884

OptionProbability

Chechnya (Ichkeria)

Kaliningrad (Königsberg)

Bashkortostan

Tatarstan

Udmurtia

Chuvashia

Karelia

Dagestan

Buryatia

Sakha (Yakutia)

49

21

16

16

16

16

16

16

16

15

Will China turn on Russia before 2030?

Jan 13, 4:38 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

28.86%chance

10428

OptionVotes

YES

NO

157

64

Will I get my money back from the cruise casino?

Feb 7, 7:54 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

59.72%chance

6380

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1459

987

Saudi NEOM project faces pause, downsizing, or lawsuit before 2026?

Jun 7, 3:22 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

93.88%chance

7330

OptionVotes

NO

YES

392

26

Which China pundits may eventually be found to be assets of the CCP?

Jan 16, 9:41 PMJul 1, 6:59 AM

570

OptionProbability

Jeffrey Sachs

Huey Li (and the news)

SerpentZA

Laowhy86

Nicholas Kristof

Michael Pettis

Peter Hessler

James Fallows

Kevin D Walmsley of Inside China Business

Liziqi

Nathan Rich

Living in China

Jerry Kowal

Significant effort (10k+ posts) to manipulate comment threads on hacker news.

Asia Society Policy Institute

Yale Center Beijing

Brookings Institution (China Center)

Blondie in China

Elon Musk

Bill Bishop, Sinocism

52

50

50

50

50

50

50

50

50

50

50

50

50

50

50

50

50

50

41

40

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