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Prediction markets for Back in Action

Will Vladimir Putin’s death be the result of an assassination?

Jun 15, 6:28 PMJan 2, 5:59 AM

25.93%chance

1338039

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1487

1190

Will Russia invade a new country by the end of 2030?

Jun 11, 7:40 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

68.3%chance

425011

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1468

681

Will there exist popular smart glasses with LLM integration by 2027?

Apr 8, 6:49 PMJan 1, 6:29 PM

88.27%chance

384317

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2134

661

Will there exist popular smart glasses with LLM integration by 2030?

Apr 8, 6:49 PMJan 1, 6:29 PM

85.66%chance

434022

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3633

1265

Mark Zuckerberg either divorced or separated within 18 months

Jan 23, 7:37 PMJul 31, 4:59 AM

9.17%chance

373933

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3147

318

2030 – 5. AI-driven job loss will be one of the most widely discussed political and social issues.

Mar 11, 12:09 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

71.93%chance

163414

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1009

979

Will any advanced AI chip fabs or their key supply chains be heavily physically damaged deliberately by 2028?

Nov 3, 6:13 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

25.45%chance

281988

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1205

883

Court order demanding OpenAI log deleted chats reversed by EOY2025?

Jun 5, 6:08 AMJan 1, 12:00 AM

50.22%chance

9869

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1004

996

Will the United States confiscate privately owned gold collections before 2035?

Mar 29, 6:56 PMDec 31, 10:00 AM

2.66%chance

6581

OptionVotes

YES

NO

731

112

Will I get my money back from the cruise casino?

Feb 7, 7:54 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

59.72%chance

6380

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1459

987

[Metaculus] Will a cryonically frozen individual be resuscitated before 2100?

Oct 6, 11:55 PMJan 3, 5:00 AM

39.97%chance

10368

OptionVotes

NO

YES

190

70

Will the next president of USA revert to Gulf of Mexico

Feb 11, 8:20 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

37.8%chance

9137

OptionVotes

YES

NO

128

78

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