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Prediction markets for Back To Basics

Will we conclude Tesla launched level 4 robotaxis in summer 2025?

Apr 25, 8:31 PMJan 1, 12:59 AM

17.49%chance

274106999

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1718

765

Will it be possible for transgender people to leave the US in 2026? (Can renew passports; Not imprisoned)

Feb 5, 4:52 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

93.89%chance

204924

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3919

255

When will a regular person be able to use AI to answer phone calls for them?

Mar 20, 10:11 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

423600

OptionProbability

Before 2030

Before 2029

Before 2028

Before 2027

Before 2025

Before 2026

Before 2024-07-01

Before 2024-10-01

87

80

79

59

0

0

0

0

2030 – 5. AI-driven job loss will be one of the most widely discussed political and social issues.

Mar 11, 12:09 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

75.68%chance

173564

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1159

926

Where will I live in October 2026?

Apr 24, 6:30 PMOct 1, 12:00 AM

153403

OptionProbability

Menlo Park, CA

Other

Berkeley, CA

Stanford, CA

San Francisco, CA

Oakland, CA

San Jose, CA

Warren's Gore, VT

70

8

6

6

5

3

2

0

Will I marry my girlfriend by 2032 year end? [M1,400 subsidy]

Mar 15, 9:05 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

63.13%chance

431474

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2360

1961

How comfident do you think one should be that their crush doesn't like them back so that it's better not to confess ?

May 25, 7:46 PMJul 31, 9:59 PM

38.62%chance

6573

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1261

793

Robo-Palanquin - human-carrying robot available by mid 2034

May 21, 8:44 PMJul 1, 6:59 AM

47.95%chance

5350

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1042

960

Destruction of any of 14 famous world historical monuments through 2031

Aug 31, 5:18 PMJan 1, 6:07 PM

13.53%chance

10293

OptionVotes

YES

NO

354

189

Will the US Gini index measured by the OECD go above 0.43 before the end of 2028, potentially due to AI developments ?

Dec 27, 4:20 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

55%chance

11274

OptionVotes

NO

YES

242

126

Will the AT Protocol (bluesky) end up being used as a distributed ledger?

Aug 20, 8:00 AMJun 26, 11:59 AM

30.88%chance

251

OptionVotes

YES

NO

150

67

When will bioelectricity be used for organ or tissue regeneration?

Nov 19, 7:31 PMJan 1, 3:59 AM

231

OptionProbability

Before 2050

Before 2040

Before 2030

61

44

32

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