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Prediction markets for Back To Basics

Will we conclude Tesla launched level 4 robotaxis in summer 2025?

Apr 25, 8:31 PMSep 1, 11:59 PM

9.02%chance

24568669

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2875

598

Will it be possible for transgender people to leave the US in 2026? (Can renew passports; Not imprisoned)

Feb 5, 4:52 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

94.54%chance

184803

OptionVotes

NO

YES

4161

240

In hindsight, will my husband moving to San Francisco and coming home on the weekends be a mistake?

Apr 27, 6:12 PMApr 27, 6:04 PM

9.58%chance

613786

OptionVotes

YES

NO

307

33

When will a regular person be able to use AI to answer phone calls for them?

Mar 20, 10:11 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

423600

OptionProbability

Before 2030

Before 2029

Before 2028

Before 2027

Before 2025

Before 2026

Before 2024-07-01

Before 2024-10-01

87

80

79

59

0

0

0

0

2030 – 5. AI-driven job loss will be one of the most widely discussed political and social issues.

Mar 11, 12:09 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

71.93%chance

163414

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1009

979

Will I marry my girlfriend by 2032 year end? [M1,400 subsidy]

Mar 15, 9:05 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

63.41%chance

421464

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2377

1951

When will UK millennials get their state pension?

Aug 3, 12:25 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

321110

OptionProbability

69 to 73 years old

There will be no state pension for millenials

Over 73 years old

68 years old

63 to 67 years old

Under 63 years old

56

18

14

10

2

0

How comfident do you think one should be that their crush doesn't like them back so that it's better not to confess ?

May 25, 7:46 PMJul 31, 9:59 PM

38.62%chance

6573

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1261

793

Robo-Palanquin - human-carrying robot available by mid 2034

May 21, 8:44 PMJul 1, 6:59 AM

47.95%chance

5350

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1042

960

Who will Sadie Sink Play in Spider Man Brand New Day

Jan 29, 2:28 AMJul 31, 5:00 PM

6347

OptionProbability

Jean Gray

Other

Felicia Hardy (Black Cat)

Mayday Parker

Gwen Stacy

Mary Jane Watson

Spider-Woman

74

10

5

3

3

3

3

Will the US Gini index measured by the OECD go above 0.43 before the end of 2028, potentially due to AI developments ?

Dec 27, 4:20 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

55%chance

11274

OptionVotes

NO

YES

242

126

When will bioelectricity be used for organ or tissue regeneration?

Nov 19, 7:31 PMJan 1, 3:59 AM

231

OptionProbability

Before 2050

Before 2040

Before 2030

61

44

32

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