Background Conversations News

Will a top-10 LMArena model have weight-based online learning by 2028?

Dec 4, 6:03 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

56.97%chance

1418493

OptionVotes

YES

2262

1776

Which of these people will speak at Voliti Co’s Predict 2026 (predict2026.org)?

Aug 27, 10:44 PMDec 10, 11:59 PM

1616740

OptionProbability

Stephen Grugett, Manifold and MNX

Tarek Mansour, Kalshi

Luana Lopes Lara, Kalshi

Shayne Coplan, Polymarket

Michael S. Selig, Chairman of the CFTC

Terry Duffy, CME

Will I focus on the AI alignment problem for the rest of my life?

Jun 13, 6:27 PMJan 20, 7:27 PM

43.08%chance

221199

OptionVotes

YES

1350

593

Will the US concede Taiwan to the PRC before 2030?

Mar 1, 4:06 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

18.17%chance

16992

OptionVotes

YES

1100

977

Will the next El Salvador presidential election be free and fair?

Apr 18, 8:06 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

34.03%chance

15627

OptionVotes

YES

1392

718

150 y/o by EOC?

Sep 3, 10:56 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

57.89%chance

16552

OptionVotes

YES

117

Can EU companies charge 14% exchange rates fee for euro transactions? Resolution as soon as outcome is known. ADD yours

Dec 11, 11:22 PMMay 4, 10:11 PM

437

OptionProbability

the exchange fee will be removed for euro-euro conversions , but without refunding victims

NO, Prague is EU capital and charging exchange rates for Euro to Euro conversions isn't legal - we will learn about the fines ot court orders or other punishments

YES, it's fully legal - no consequences for ATM owners

exchange fee from Euro to Euro is gray area and companies can operate if they have good lawyers - the issue will be settled, and ATM continue operate as is

Other

Will Chatgpt-type chatbots become permanent in our lives permanently before 2100?

Sep 15, 1:20 PMDec 31, 11:00 AM

137

OptionProbability

No, they will be replaced by a different technology before becoming permanent

Yes, they will become permanent fixtures by 2030

Yes, they will become permanent fixtures between 2031-2050

Yes, they will become permanent fixtures between 2051-2099

No, they will lose popularity and cease to be part of daily life

Will Chatgpt-type chatbots become extinct before 2100?

Sep 16, 5:54 AMDec 31, 11:00 AM

34.81%chance

419

OptionVotes

YES

117

Will a 2028 U.S. Presidential Candidate Be Interviewed by an AI Before 2028?

Oct 12, 5:31 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

36.38%chance

118

OptionVotes

YES

118

How big will the Google Trends Interest in autogynephilia in 2026-2028 be?

Jun 20, 7:38 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

60.15%chance

212

OptionVotes

YES

Recommend me something to listen to while working.

Oct 9, 8:40 PM

Background Conversations News

Prediction markets for Background Conversations

Prediction markets for Background Conversations

Prediction markets for Background Conversations

Will a top-10 LMArena model have weight-based online learning by 2028?

Which of these people will speak at Voliti Co’s Predict 2026 (predict2026.org)?

Will I focus on the AI alignment problem for the rest of my life?

Will the US concede Taiwan to the PRC before 2030?

Will the next El Salvador presidential election be free and fair?

150 y/o by EOC?

Can EU companies charge 14% exchange rates fee for euro transactions? Resolution as soon as outcome is known. ADD yours

Will Chatgpt-type chatbots become permanent in our lives permanently before 2100?

Will Chatgpt-type chatbots become extinct before 2100?

Will a 2028 U.S. Presidential Candidate Be Interviewed by an AI Before 2028?

How big will the Google Trends Interest in autogynephilia in 2026-2028 be?

Recommend me something to listen to while working.

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