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Prediction markets for Bad Robot

When will Unsupervised FSD be available on Teslas with HW4/AI4?

Oct 21, 6:05 PMJan 1, 6:59 AM

61392

OptionProbability

2026

2034+

2027

2025

2028

2029

2030

2031

2032

2033

34

26

23

20

20

14

14

14

14

13

When will Unsupervised FSD be available on Teslas with HW3?

Oct 21, 5:57 PMJan 1, 6:59 AM

31300

OptionProbability

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

2031

2032

2034+

2025

2033

20

20

20

20

20

20

14

14

10

10

Will Llama-3 (or next open Meta model) be obviously good in its first-order effects on the world?

Oct 23, 12:43 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

85.43%chance

181098

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1551

843

[Carlini questions] Chance off-the-shelf AI system can play as well as casual player on arbitrary board game given rules

Mar 24, 1:49 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

6200

OptionProbability

By 2030

By 2027

77

51

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