OptionProbability
Lionel Messi to score at least one goal
Total goals in the tournament to exceed 200
The Golden Boot winner to score 6+ goals
VAR to overturn at least 20 decisions
Someone scores 5+ goals within group stage
USA survives group stage
Total goals in the tournament to exceed 300
10+ goals in any match
2+ red cards in any match
2+ European countries reach top 4
Any player scores at least a goal 3 matches in a row
The Golden Boot winner to score 8+ goals
Goal from last kick of the game
Cristiano Ronaldo to score a goal
3+ penalty shootout
Mexico survives group stage
Canada survives group stage
The Golden Ball is awarded to a player from tournament winner
South American team reaches semi-final
3+ red cards in any match
6+ yellow cards in any match
Red card issued for mouth covering
Team with 0 wins in Group Stage
Black player gets the red card
Player throws captains armband
Bicycle kick attempt
Team scores after being down to 10 men
Both teams score in stoppage time
Player scores against country of birth/heritage
Player bleeding on camera during match
Team loses possession from delay throw-in
15+ minutes of the stoppage time
Champion is unbeaten
USA player gets the red card
Disruption at Iran match
A fully southern hemisphere team (Australia, NZ, South Africa, Uruguay or Argentina) makes semi finals.
Hooligans light the fireworks at night by team hotel for disruption
Player scores a hat-trick
Over 6.5 matches ending 0-0 (regular time only)
Over 289.5 total goals scored*
Over 9.5 own goals scored
Over 10.5 red cards
Spain goes further than France
Over 7.5 goals scored in a single group stage match
Over 202.5 goals scored in group stage
US scores in every single group stage match
Scorigami (a match ends in a score that has never happened at a World Cup; for the purpose of this answer refers only to result before extra time / shootout)
Play suspended for more than 1.5 hours in a single match
Bottle thrown on field
Teenager scores a goal (non penalty shoot-out)
Messi is top Argentinian goal-scorer
Team finishes match with 9 players
25+ people arrested at stadium
French-born player scores against France
Team makes it to Round of 32 with no goals conceded
3 or more coaches resign or are fired before end of World Cup
Single top goalscorer in tournament (not tied)
Goal scored directly from a free-kick
A coach is sacked before the end of the tournament
Team is undefeated for the entire tournament (only wins & draws)
Champion is a first place group stage winner
First penalty shootout kick of tournament is missed/saved
Team ends Group Stage with a clean sheet
Player not born in the country they are playing for scores 2+ goals
Trump still alive at end of final match
“Puto” chant at match
Crowd jump registers on local seismic sensor
Referee falls down
Match has a dedicated moment of silence
Any host places 1st in their group
Curaçao scores a goal
Haaland scores over 3.5 goals
Messi scores a goal at 39 years old
Both players in this photo* play each other in a match
Fan hospitalized for heat related illness
Kylian Mbappe & Harry Kane to Score 9+ Goals Combined
Trump attends match
Neymar plays in a match
Player dies during World Cup
Vuvuzela spotted in the stadium stands
An over-enthusiastic goal celebration results in a shattered corner flag
A penalty shootout contains a missed winning kick (Matchball)
At least two Mohammeds (all variants) score ≥1 goal
Player tears their ACL
Players cleat falls off their foot
Unauthorized person gets on the pitch during match
gruesome leg/ankle/arm injury
Another match day ending in all draws (regular time)
Will either Bosnia and Herzegovina or Qatar advance to the next round?
Will Cristiano Ronaldo Score Atleast A Goal In Next Match Against Uzbekistan
Will any group finish with either all draws or zero draws?
Will both brothers of any pair score at this World Cup?
Foam spray is used on field to mark penalty / free kick
Cape Verde scores a goal
Will any more team(s) from Europe finish 4th in the group?
Messi to score a free kick
Ronaldo to cry at the world cup
Team loses after leading 2-0
Golden Boot Winner wears Nike branded cleats
World Cup winner to never trail in a match
Penalty shootout goes 6+ rounds
Pride flag at Egypt v Iran match
Austria Pays Its Debt to Algeria? (Austria loses or draws with Algeria AND both teams qualify. Inspired by the 1982 “Disgrace of Gijón”)
Vorzinha concedes a goal by Argentina player in regular play
First team to lead goes through in 24+ knockout matches? (penalties count)
This World Cup Market reaches 500 traders
Gianni Infantino travels more than 50K miles during the tournament by airplane
Short Fuse: The Netherlands - Morocco ends in penalties
Any match is 0-0 going into penalty shootouts
Panenka penalty to be scored
Player scores 8+ goals
Player gets a straight red card in Round of 16
A team scores 4 goals in a knockout round game
A team loses after scoring 3 unanswered goals
Spain scores 3 or more goals against Austria [Short Fuse]
An even number of games go to a shootout
Any team scores 4 unanswered goals in a knockout stage match
Flash Market: No goals in 2nd half stoppage time today (July 3 - last three Rd of 32 games)
More goals scored in 3rd Place Match than in the Final (excluding penalty shootouts)
England v Mexico Match on July 5 rescheduled to a different time? (Currently scheduled 6pm local time)
Mexicans mess with England team before match in the any way (fireworks, beeping, delays)
Paraguay is playing undeniably the Haramball tonight
German Freddy back on the twitter (formerly known as the x) before end of final
In quarterfinals, the alphabetically earlier country wins more games
team that wins bronze has more goals across tournament than both gold and silver
Infantino and Trump sitting next to each other at any match
Player scores 2+ goals in a match (QF)
Player gets 2 yellow cards in a match (QF)
Mbappe scores a non-penalty kick goal (QF)
A shot with xG greater than 0.75 gets missed (QF)
USA strikes Iran anytime from start of quarterfianals to ending of them
Trump flies in the Qatari Air Force One to final
Paraguayan Senator Celeste Amarilla goes on another rant about Mbappe before end of final
France, Spain, England & Argentina all go to Half Finales
Mikel Merino finishes the World Cup with more or the same number of goals as Lamine Yamal
A French player leaves the field injured against Spain (like Mendes and Courtois)
Goal scored in stoppage time (SF)
Over 3.5 goals scored (SF)
Goal scored from a header (SF)
Goal is disallowed for offside (SF)
Team wins by exactly 1 goal (SF)
Mitch McConnell alive for entire final match?
match
Over 4.5 goals in semi finals
Substitute scores in semi finals
Spain ball posession under 55.5% in semi final
Ball hits the woodwork in semi final match
English fans acting unruly before, during or after Argentina match
Both England and Argentina score a goal in the semifinal
Both Teams to Score Argentina/ England in 90minutes plus stoppage time. (Not Extra time)
Match ends in a draw in regular time (F)
Final combined match score is an odd number (F)
Goal is disallowed for offside (F)
Team wins by exactly 1 goal (F)
Match is won in extra-time (F)
Goalkeeper ends match with a clean sheet (F)
Substitute scores a goal (F)
Match ends 0-0 in regular time (F)
Spain first to score (F)
Match is tied at halftime (F)
First yellow card given to Argentina (F)
Player gets 2 yellow cards in a match (F)
Trump touches in any way the Messi at final match/stadium
Argentinian player leaves injured in the final (like Mendes, Courtois and Saliba)
Score 0-0 in first part of extra time
Spain wins
Argentina lose Spain
World Cup team coach resigns or is fired before end of July (after final)
Asian player gets the red card
FIFA’s official total revenue for the 2023-2026 cycle exceed $16.billion
The ballon d’or is awarded to a player from World Cup winner
Asian player misses penalty kick
USA to reach the Quarter-finals or further
A penalty shootout to decide the Final match
No red cards issued in the Final match
Erling Haaland to win the Golden Boot
An African nation to reach the Semi-finals
5+ group stage winners advance with 9 points (3 wins)
15+ cards in any match
Total goals in the tournament to exceed 400
Any one of Harry Kane, Kylian Mbappe, or Erling Haaland to score a hattrick
Goal scored within 1st minute
Penalty shootout to decide semi-final match
Penalty shootout to decide a quarter-final match
20+ penalty goals
30+ penalty goals
Messi and Ronaldo play in the same match
Asia team reaches semi final
The Golden Boot winner is decided by # assists
Goalkeeper attempts shot in PKs
Player arrested / detained at any time of tournament
Trump kicks or holds a soccer ball at any time during tournament
Weather postponement or delay for greater than 3 hours
Player bit during match
Bald person gets the red card
Football is coming home?
Match delayed due to homophobic crowd chant
Coach on camera during match smelling finger(s)
Headbutt during match
Laser pointer on goalie during match
Someone escorted off field shirtless
Player gets spat on during match
Ronaldo gets in referee face
England loses on penalties
More own goals than red cards in tourney
VAR overturns second yellow card
Player walks off pitch protesting referee
Player shits in the pants during match
The Netherlands does not survive group stage
Confirmed case of Ebola at the match
Player is complaining about the Trionda ball / blames it for the losing
Trump attends 3 or more games
All 3 host countries win the opener
ICE makes a capture at the stadium
Player with the heat stroke / heat related illness
Smoke bomb during match in USA
Flares in stands during match in USA
Taylor Swift & Travis Kelce attend match
Elon Musk attends match
Betting scandal reported
Player wearing a face mask in semi-final match
All 48 teams score at least 1 goal
Fastest goal record beaten (11 seconds)
Over 8.5 penalties missed (excludes shoot-outs)
Over 30.5 penalties scored (excludes shoot-outs)
Over 395.5 yellow cards
Any host nation in quarter final
US goes further than Mexico
Canada goes further than US
Over 1.5 of the visible penis in world cup tourney (during match, on pitch)
Goal scored from own half
Olimpico goal (goal scored directly from corner kick, counts if corner taker is credited as the goalscorer by FIFA)
Goalkeeper scores a non-penalty goal
Game is turned around in stoppage team (one team leads at 90:00, the other team scores twice or more in stoppage time to win it)
A player or their teams gets sanctioned by FIFA (i. e. a fine, an overturned result, a suspension) for a goal celebration with a political or politics-adjacent message
Voodoo doll or alive chicken in stands
Team captain gets red card
Ronaldo scores before Messi
Pulisic top Team USA goal scorer
All teams concede at least 1 goal in group stage
Team gets removed or disqualified
Team makes it to Round of 16 with zero yellow cards
2 UEFA teams in final
Final is a rematch of a previous World Cup
Any match is canceled or postponed
Golden boot & golden ball won by the same player
Team wins a match without making a single substitution
Coaches of both teams in final match are wearing suits
Both teams in final have red on their flag
Team finishes third in group and makes it to final
Youngest player of the tournament scores a goal
Final features a team that has never made it to the final before
Visible debris thrown during corner kick attempt
Oldest player in tournament gets a yellow card
Team gets to final on all penalty shoot-outs in knockout rounds
Any player injured in opening group match & out for rest of tournament
Last penalty shoot-out kick of tournament is missed/saved
Palestinian or Israeli flag on field during match
Player wearing oxygen mask on sideline
Fans invade field during match
Major security incident
Animal (not birdy) is on field during match
Team USA fans pull off a decent Tifo
Shooting incident (non-ball) at stadium
Match is forfeited
Bonnie Blue attending a match
4+ Corners in Every Group Stage Match
Player drinking Liquid Death at hydration break
Salt Bae attending a match
King Charles attends match
Record for hottest WC match ever played broken (>101°)
Player blames an injury on poor stadium grass
Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei attending a match
Unofficial drone is reported flying over a stadium
Players from any other league outscore PL players in the tournament
USA plays Iran
Mohamed Salah (Egypt) scores 5+ goals during Group Stage Fixtures (Round of 64)
Ronaldo does jerkin move
Trump dancing at match
Team reaches the quarter-finals through draws and penalties
A group-stage match is decided by a freak "Olympico" goal scored directly from a corner
The fastest goal of the tournament is scored within 30 seconds
6+ teams with negative goal difference advance from the group stage
Player suffers cardiac arrest
Winning team has a foreign manager
Omar Artan is at a World Cup match
Another match with 3+ red cards
Players / members of team attempt to defect
A third-placed team is eliminated with 4+ points
Any team with <3 points advances from the group stage
Freddy attends the final match
Freddy shown during a match broadcast
Someone from Trump administration celebrating in locker room
Will any player be seen drinking gatorade during a hydration break?
Messi gets a yellow card
Ronaldo puts up the goose egg (excludes any penalty or shootout)
Trump acts innapropriate with trophy at final
German Freddy is uncovered to be the marketing stunt
Messi scores on every game he plays
Will Merlin the duck correctly predict both remaining MEX group stage matches?
Haaland scores on every game he plays
Match delayed due to anti-Trump crowd chant
Champion is a first time World Cup winner
Ronaldo does not start
Knockout Stage (incl 3rd/4th) to match or exceed Group-Stage scoring average
Play suspended for more than 2.5 hours in a single match
Team particpates in 3+ penalty shoot-outs
Any two brothers play against each other (Both must be on the pitch at the same time)
World Champion's goals > total goals of all teams out in group stage
Flipping Coinflips – Do teams shooting first win more penalty shootouts?
5+ hat tricks
Messi scores more goals than Mbappe
Penalty shootout goes 7+ rounds
Any country ranked outside FIFA Top 10 to reach semifinals (as of 6/11)
Over 14.5 own goals scored
Golden Glove Winner wears Senda, Rinat, RG, Voit or Adidas brand glove
Total goals in the tournament to exceed 310
Emmanuel Macron attends match
The Netherlands reaches half-final
16+ knockout matches to be won by 2+ goals inc. Extra Time (no Penalties)
17+ knockout matches to be won by 2+ goals - Regular time only!
France becomes finalist
France, Mexico, and Argentina all make it to the quarter finals
Belgium plays against The Netherlands
Of 5 competing continents, Europe has highest survival % in round of 32
16+ Knockout Stage Clean Sheets (0–0 after ET counts as 2)
Short Fuse: Germany scores 3 or more goals against Paraguay
FIFA officially apologizes or announces a general review of the VAR system following Germany’s disallowed goal vs Paraguay
Messi scores a goal in every match Argentina plays in
Overall penalty conversion rate to be 66.67% or higher ( all penalties no matter when)
Norway becomes finalist
Panenka penalty to be bottled
Three straight games going to penalties
Messi scores a goal in penalty shootout
Any team gets to penalty shootout and doesn't score a goal
Player with 9 or more assists
Enock Kabwende shown during broadcast
Announcer says Doctor Congo during 7/1 match broadcast
Any Trump attending BIH v USA match
Lead (or tied lead) goal scorer is on the team that wins the World Cup
World Cup winner won at least 2 games by shootout
A host country reaches the semi-finals
Belgium becomes finalist
Croatia gets a red card against Portugal [Short Fuse]
In knockouts, more teams with red cards WIN their matches
Round of 16 Special: „My vision, my rules“ - Referee sticks to original (no) Penalty, Goal or Red Card decision after On-Field Review
🇦🇷 ARG vs CPV 🇨🇻 – ARG wins both halves and scores more than three times as many goals as CPV
Own goal is scored (Rof16)
Over 1.5 matches end with a penalty shoot-out (Rof16)
Ronaldo scores a non-penalty kick goal (Rof16)
Team wins by exactly two goals (Rof16)
Mbappe doing the dictator point
Red card in CAN v MAR?
In round of 16, the alphabetically earlier country wins more games
3 continents reach semifinals
France's appeal successfully overturns Michael Olise's yellow card before the quarter-finals kickoff
Player doing lip trill shown in slow motion during final match broadcast on FOX
Trump attending the USA Belgium match
Trump takes credit for USA win within 1 day
Trump mentioned during USA BEL Fox broadcast today
Pitch Invader during USA BEL match today
Frances' tournament ends before Graham Platner drops out of Maine Senate race
"Is the TV broken?": There will be 4 or more On-Field Reviews (OFR) from the Quarterfinals onwards
"Shocking decision, Ref!": Any goal disallowed by VAR in the Quarterfinals AND any goal disallowed by VAR in the Semifinals (according to ESPN)
There will be a single leader in the Golden Boot ranking after the Quarterfinals (no tiebreak applies)
Norway player displays the flu like symptoms during match
Match ends 0-0 in regular time (QF)
Own goal is scored (QF)
Ball “heartbeat” graphic shown during FOX/FS1 broadcast (QF)
Over 1.5 matches end with a penalty shoot-out (QF)
Announcer says "Tom Brady" during France v Morocco
Player gets straight red card (QF)
Trump picks team he is supporting to win for the final game
Sam Altman attends final
JD Vance attends final
Morrocans stealing the towels or water bottles during game
Any Morrocan gets the red card
Morocco player picks up a ball during France possession 3+ times
France player picks up a ball during Morocco possession 3+ times
Shirtless player on field during match (QF)
Messi misses another penalty shot - includes shootout (QF-F)
Messi subbed out before the end of a match he played in (QF-F)
[France + Argentina] score more goals than [Spain + England] (SF)
Player scores 2+ goals in a match (SF)
Over 0.5 matches end with a penalty shoot-out (SF)
Match ends 0-0 in regular time (SF)
All teams score 1+ goals (SF)
Mbappe scores a non-penalty kick goal (SF)
Goal scored within the first 15 minutes (SF)
Own goal is scored (SF)
Player gets a straight red card (SF)
A shot with xG greater than 0.75 gets missed (SF)
Ball “heartbeat” graphic shown during FOX/FS1 broadcast (SF)
Shirtless player on field during match (SF)
Match is won in extra-time (SF)
Yellow card given for simulation (SF)
Harry Kane scores a non-penalty kick goal (SF)
Bellingham gets yellow card (SF)
Both players in this photo* score and/or assist (SF)
Strait of Hormuz open at start of final match?
Over 17.5 corners in semi finals
Mbappe & Oyarzabal to record 2+ shots on target in semi final
Gavi shown card in semi final
Otamendi shown card in semi final
Anything occurring to make it historical final
The market creator deems the result of the final to have been swayed by bias from the referee
Two different players with the same jersey number score in the final
Mbappé leads Golden Boot race after 3rd place match & Messi overtakes in Final to win the Award
Mbappé less than 60 mins on the pitch in Consolation Final 3./4.
Sore Losers: Any player or official from the losing team to instantly remove or reject their silver medal after the Final
Own goal is scored (F)
Intruder on field during match (F)
Goal scored in stoppage time (F)
Over 2.5 goals scored (F)
Player scores 2+ goals in a match (F)
Penalty kick missed during regular/extra time (F)
Goal scored from a header (F)
A shot with xG greater than 0.75 gets missed (F)
Player gets a straight red card (F)
Penalty kick is given in 2nd half (F)
Argentina last to score (F)
[France + Argentina] score more goals than [Spain + England] (F)
Goal scored within the last 15 minutes (F)
Match ends 1-1 in regular time (F)
Final score is 1-2 or 2-1 (F)
Match ends with penalty shoot-out (F)
Winning team has lower total ball possession (F)
Both teams score 1+ goals in 2nd half (F)
Goal is scored from outside the penalty box (F)
Over 1.5 goals scored (F)
All teams score 1+ goals (F)
First yellow card in 2nd half given to Spain (F)
Goal scored in first 15 minutes of 2nd half (F)
Argentina first to score in 2nd half (F)
No yellow cards given in 1st half (F)
Goal scored within the first 15 minutes (F)
Yellow card given for simulation (F)
Ball “heartbeat” graphic shown during FOX/FS1 broadcast (F)
Both players in this photo* score and/or assist (F)
Argentina gets a penalty in regular time in the finals
Banner referencing historical territorial dispute visible during final or 3rd place match
"Albiceleste Cardiac Arrest": Argentina scores the game's final goal from 75' onward to win or force extra time (F)
"Pessi's Redemption": Messi scores a penalty and wins the Golden Boot
Javier Milei tweets VLLC or "Viva la libertad carajo" before the winning captain lifts the trophy (F)
The final score in the final is an internet certified funny number e.g. 2-1, 6-7, 6-9, 4-20 (ascending and descending order allowed)
Score 0-0 in second part of extra time
Argentina scores 1-1 in extra time
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OptionProbability
Gunplay
Bond will be a man
Bond drives a car
Bond wears a suit/tuxedo
On screen fatalities
London will appear on screen
Car chase scene
Urban scene
Bond tells ≥1 joke
Blue-eyed Bond
Bond introduces himself as "Bond, James Bond"
World capital other than London appears on screen
A vessel is shown on screen containing any of the following: ketchup, mustard, wasabi, soy sauce, hot sauce, beer, wine, whiskey, cologne, or sulfuric acid.
A named character speaks in a language other than English
Bond will attend a gala, soirée, ball, banquet, masquerade, black-tie event, cocktail party, fundraiser, awards ceremony, premiere, reception, or a charity auction.
Bond drinks a martini
Runtime of at least 2 hours/120 minutes.
Female and/or BIPOC director and/or producer
Opening action sequence
The Tower of London, Big Ben, Buckingham Palace, Wembley, or Heathrow appears on screen.
Gun Barrel Sequence
Sex scene
Q appears
Bond solves ≥ 1 problem non-violently
Hacking electronics of some form
Bond uses explosives
The plot will be predominantly set in present day
Bond disarms someone with a melee weapon using martial arts
The main theme song will be sung by a female
The film features a scene at a UNESCO World Heritage Site.
Fatal-if-missed aerial jump
A Bird (Avian) Will Appear Onscreen for >2 Seconds
Bond will shoot an inanimate object on purpose.
Asia will appear on screen
It will gross more worldwide than No Time to Die ($774M)
Someone goes through a pane of glass
A named character is a double (or triple, etc.) agent
"King" or "Queen" of England mentioned
Bond is on vacation (is shown somewhere for enjoyment, without purpose for his mission)
Someone in the movie says the title
@HenriThunberg enjoys the film
It will feature ≥1 actor that was part of No Time to Die
The villain will use or work in the field of artificial intelligence.
>= 7.0 IMDB rating 1 year after release
The villain is played by an actor who had a lead or recurring role on a prestigious television series that aired on either AMC or HBO.
Actor who plays Bond at least 6' (183 cm) tall
South America, Africa, or Australia will appear on screen
The words "James Bond will return" appear on screen during or after the credits.
Bond rides a motorcycle
>=85 on Tomatometer 1 month after US release
Critics will say it's a return to classic bond
A sniper rifle is fired
At least a portion filmed in Canada
There will be a scene with wagering, gambling or betting
Bond wields a Walther PPK
Interracial sex scene
Pegasus, Phoenix, Griffin, Unicorn, Kraken, Minotaur, Medusa, Cyclops, Sphinx, Kitsune, Chimera, or Thunderbird (any visual representation)
Jungle / forest scene
Bond flys an aircraft
James Bond disobeys orders from MI6 or the British government
Bond attends a soccer match, cricket game, rugby match, boxing/MMA fight, tennis match, e-sport event, the Olympics, a carnival or fair, the opera, or a horse race.
Casino game scene
Bond parachutes
It passes the Bechdel test (two named women talk the each other about anything besides a man)
Bond wears shorts
Bond pays for something by leaving money on a table and walking off without the recipient of the money present
>=7.5 on IMDB 1 month after US release
Arctic scene
Someone uses a euphemism to order a killing
Bond gets slapped
M will be played by Ralph Fiennes
Prison/jail scene
Black market trafficking
A single large explosion occurs on screen at the same time as Bond, and he doesn't look at it
Someone climbs around on the outside of a building
Released in 2028
Skydiving
The main character will order a “Vodka Martini, shaken, not stirred” using that exact phrase.
A Gulf kingdom will appear on screen (e.g. Dubai)
Bond licks something
Bond and a pond shown on screen together
someone combs or brushes their hair (or the hair of another person)
Bond in bondage (not necessarily sexual)
Bond slaps someone
A scene shows James Bond naked
Bond puts something phallic-shaped in his mouth
Bond is violent toward a woman (e.g. painful pulling, slap, throat grip...)
Someone speaks a verbal password phrase to verify their identity, gain access to a location, etc.
There will be a voiced character that is an AI
Bond rides a bicycle
Torture
James Bond talks to a woman while playing a card game.
Bond receives a gunshot wound
A visible countdown clock, which if it reaches zero something bad happens
Wilhelm scream
Main villain has a visible physical defect (scar, handicap, missing limb, ...)
The title will refer to life and/or death
@brunoparga correctly guesses a pun beforehand
Bond plays craps, roulette, or blackjack
Bond drives a boat
A jet ski or snowmobile gets airborne
Someone is shot with a tranquilizer dart or other nonlethal incapacitating projectile (getting wounded with a potentially lethal weapon doesn't count)
James Bond plays poker
Bond commits arson
Oral sex
Bond smokes a cigarette/cigar
Tom Hardy, Cillian Murphy, or Zendaya appear on screen
Martini and a bikini shown on screen at the same time
Bond has facial hair
Terrorists
US premier date is moved forward at least once (has to be numbered date, "summer 2026" doesn't count)
Someone carries a gun disassembled in a nondescript case
A safe is cracked (any means possible)
Actor who plays Bond is a US citizen
Rolex, Aston Martin, Bollinger Champaign product placements (all three)
Desert scene
The ending pitches a next movie (continued story, introduction of villain, venegance, ...)
A pandemic or biological warfare will be a central plot
Ski chase scene
Drug use
Someone/something is x-rayed
Thunderstorm
Dessert scene
An actor who previous played a Bond villain appears (as either a new or recurring character)
President of the United States is mentioned
IF the main villain has a pet that plays a significant role in the plot, this pet is a horse...
Robots
Death of a Bond love interest
It refers to the transition between two British monarchs (Elizabeth, Charles and/or others)
Bond will have a hot, young, American sidekick
Theme song will be performed by a band (more than one artist. Duran Duran did it, so there is precedent.)
There will be a promotional event in Fortnite
Bond throws food, darts, or a Molotov cocktail
Bond wears a mask
Sharks
Cocaine or caviar appears on screen
Bond will be in a submarine
James Bond plays baccarat
Scene with Bond wearing a hat and sunglasses
Cryptocurrency is referenced
Bond complains about the quality of an alcoholic beverage
Bond is LQBTQ+
James games (Bond plays any video game, table top board game, or role-playing game) *chess counts, casino games don't
Main villain speaks Russian on screen
Bond has a disability
Bond plays golf, tennis, or croquet
Bond claims to have retired / quit from the world of espionage
Mexico is shown on screen
Jetpack
The movie will be set during the Cold War (1947-1991)
Bond rides an animal
Nazis (neo- counts)
An EMP device plays a central role.
Climate change/global warming is explicitly mentioned
At least one named character below 18 years old
Canada is shown on screen
Orgy
Will feature something that can turn invisible
Moscow, Kyiv, or Paris shown on screen
Underwater combat
Bond goes to space
The word "fuck" is said more than once.
With all this speculation about which kinds of sex acts will be shown, I'm surprised nobody has said it yet, so I'll say it: 𝕓𝕠𝕟𝕕𝕒𝕘𝕖
Bond beds a "lady of the night" (ie. He fucks a prostitute)
Bond is blond
Features a shot with someone lowering a newspaper, magazine or book, revealing they had been surreptitiously spying on someone
Someone sees something incredible, and implicitly ascribes it to alcohol (traditionally, by looking at the bottle)
A hamburger appears on screen
Theme song is performed by Taylor Swift
A previous Bond actor appears (as either a new or recurring character)
Assplay
Trans character - explicity stated they are trans, no ambiguity (must be on screen for min. 7 seconds and say at least 3 words)
Bond plays Russian roulette
Bond uses a VR headset
Bond has a neck tattoo
Aaron Taylor-Johnson plays Bond
The main villain has a pet that plays a significant role in the plot.
Revealed that "James Bond" has always been a code name.
fight featuring at least one of: viper, mongoose, someone with one of those as their code name
A pinball machine will appear.
Gay sex scene
Party and play (PnP), also known as chemsex, scene
Pirates
Emilia Clarke portrays a character
A character has the codename "Fat Rascal"
Someone asks for payment in "small, unmarked bills" or "negotiable bearer bonds" (wording need not be exact)
Theme song is performed by The Weeknd
San Francisco is shown on screen
Pegging
Another character coincidentally has the first name "James" or surname "Bond" (or both)
Horse cock on screen (flaccid)
Someone uses the word "clip" to refer to a magazine
Satanism
Bond consumes more than 1.5 loads of jizz
A clocks shows the time 4:20
It will be described as featuring AI, such as claims that is uses “AI actors”, as reported by entertainment media.
Feature Nightcore music
Bond uses chopsticks
Supernatural entities
There will be a character codenamed "Fat Rascal" and they will be played by an American
ChatGPT is referenced by any character
Released in 2026
Nuclear explosion
Desert dessert scene (e.g. eating an ice cream in the Sahara)
Any character says the word "anime"
Bond has a mustache (no other facial hair)
Vampires
Bond vapes
Bond won't be Caucasian
The main character will order a “café mocha, double double” using that exact phrase.
Bond dies
Scat play
Bond does depraved sexual acts for money (e.g., bukakke, public gang bangs, period play, etc.)
Contains a joke or indirect reference to the "last night I Bond Burgered your sister" meme
Horse cock on screen (erect)
Prediction markets, origami, or the word "manifold" appear in the movie.
Bond will say the line about snakes on a plane, but only as a metaphor (with snakes representing penises and the plane being his ass).
The handkerchief code is a major plot element
James Bond will say, "I'm rational, rationalussy."
Bond is vegan
The fourth wall is broken
It will be directed by a woman
Bond plays League of Legends
Destiny appears on screen
Bond says, “Enough is enough! I have had it with these motherfucking snakes on this motherfucking plane!”
Dragons
Dinosaurs
It will be directed by Christopher Nolan
Bond hits the griddy
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4
4
4
3
3
3
2
2
2
2
2
2
1
1
OptionProbability
Scott Bessent
No one by end of 2026
Other
Michael Kratsios
David Sacks
Elon Musk
Sriram Krishnan
Marc Andreessen
Jensen Huang
Marco Rubio
J.D. Vance
Emil Michael
Sam Altman
Mark Zuckerberg
Donald Trump
Eliezer Yudkowsky
Leopold Aschenbrenner
Rudy Giuliani
Dean Ball
Dario Amodei
Peter Thiel
Tim Cook
Séb Krier
Keith Rabois
Jacob Helberg
Katherine Boyle
36
26
12
10
6
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
OptionProbability
Elon Musk
David Reich
Jensen Huang
Dylan Patel (as guest)
Ajeya Cotra
Dwarkesh Patel (see note)
Nicholas Carlini
Dean Spears
Dean Ball
Alec Radford
Jack Clark
Gary Marcus
Joscha Bach
Holden Karnofsky
Yann LeCun
Sundar Pichai
Satya Nadella
Sarah Paine
Demis Hassabis
Amanda Askell
Tyler Cowen
Daniel Kokotajlo
Sam Altman
Eliezer Yudkowsky
Ilya Sutskever
Ian Morris
Jeff Bezos
Michael Dell
Scott Alexander
Joe Henrich
Nick Bostrom
roon
Noam Brown
Hans Moravec
Paul J Werbos
Nate Soares
Mark Zuckerberg
Matt Levine
Janus @repligate
Zvi Mowshowitz
François Chollet
Michael Levin
Helen Toner
Joe Carlsmith
Tamay Besiroglu
Mira Murati
Doris Taylor
Carl Shulman
Liang Wenfeng (CEO of DeepSeek)
Mustafa Suleyman
Tanner Greer
Dan Hendrycks
Robert Caro
Andrej Karpathy
George Hotz
Barack Obama
Bill Gates
Xiao Hong (CEO of Manus AI)
Donald Trump
Kamala Harris
Bill Clinton
100
100
100
100
99
41
39
38
33
28
27
27
26
26
25
25
25
24
24
23
23
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22
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22
20
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13
12
10
9
9
9
8
5
4
4
OptionProbability
Andrej Karpathy
George Hotz
Ilya Sutskever
Gwern Branwen
Ajeya Cotra
Elon Musk
Jared Kaplan
Michael Levin
Amanda Askell
Chris Olah
Dean Ball
Noam Brown
Joscha Bach
Janus @repligate
Tanner Greer
Greg Brockman (gdb)
Mira Murati
Michael Pettis
Matthew Klein
Connor Leahy
Geoffrey Irving
Geoffrey Hinton
Zvi Mowshowitz
Nora Belrose
Helen Toner
Wang Huning
Spencer Greenberg
Robert Caro
Bill Gates
Barack Obama
Donald Trump
Kamala Harris
100
100
100
100
98
96
95
73
71
70
66
58
51
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
45
43
36
35
32
31
29
28
25
13
3
OptionProbability
The Odyssey
Wild Horse Nine
The Black Ball
Dune: Part Three
The Debut
Project Hail Mary
Fjord
The Invite
Obsession
Club Kid
Behemoth
Digger
The Samurai and the Prisoner
Josephine
Cry to Heaven
Paper Tiger
Being Heumann
1949 / Fatherland
Jack of Spades
The Social Reckoning
The Adventures of Cliff Booth
Sense and Sensibility
Minotaur
Disclosure Day
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89
83
81
81
79
61
60
46
37
33
32
32
31
29
29
25
25
25
20
20
20
17
9
OptionProbability
Quintuple jump landed in figure skating competition
15+ balls juggled successfully
Shot put thrown >24.00 meters
110+ mph fastball thrown in professional baseball game
Stone skipped 89+ times
Quintuple corkscrew landed in tricking
>60 kilometers cycled in one hour
90+ yard field goal kicked in American football
100 meter dash completed in <9.00 seconds
NBA player with >1200 career free throw attempts averages 95%+ completion rate
45
16
14
7
7
4
2
2
1
1
OptionProbability
Ohio defeats Stonehill
Rutgers defeats Howard
Texas Tech defeats Sam Houston
Pittsburgh defeats Bucknell
Florida State defeats Central Arkansas
East Carolina defeats North Carolina Central
Ohio State defeats Illinois
Notre Dame defeats Purdue
Duke defeats William & Mary
Houston defeats Georgia Southern
Indiana defeats Northwestern
Kentucky defeats South Alabama
Marshall defeats Gardner-Webb
Virginia Tech defeats Boston College
Eastern Michigan defeats Lindenwood
Utah defeats Iowa State
Georgia defeats Oklahoma
UNLV defeats Akron
UTSA defeats Colorado State
New Mexico defeats New Mexico State
Georgia State defeats Northern Illinois
Boise State defeats Western Michigan
Hawaii defeats Wyoming
Michigan defeats Iowa
UCLA defeats Maryland
TCU defeats UCF
Miami (OH) defeats UConn
Coastal Carolina defeats Liberty
Buffalo defeats Robert Morris
Clemson defeats California
Ole Miss defeats Florida
Temple defeats Army
Toledo defeats San Diego State
Ball State defeats Kent State
Tennessee defeats Texas
Colorado defeats Baylor
Louisville defeats Wake Forest
Vanderbilt defeats Auburn
UAB defeats Navy
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98
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90
90
86
86
86
84
82
81
76
75
72
62
62
60
54
54
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49
49
43
43
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41
32
25
25
21
OptionProbability
Squash
Cricket
Lacrosse
Flag Football
Padel
Rugby (7s)
Ultimate Frisbee
Billiards
Darts
Pickleball
American Football
Kabaddi
Hurling
Tetherball
Floorball
Teqball
Netball
Bowling
Minigolf
Rugby (15s)
Sepak Takraw
Dodgeball
Kan Jam
Cornhole
Spike ball
Chess boxing
Calvinball
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93
81
77
77
67
66
66
63
59
53
50
50
50
50
50
44
43
33
25
20
20
8
8
8
7
3
OptionProbability
Honkai: Star Rail
Bloodborne
Nikke
Arknights
Dragon Ball Legends
Gakuen Idolmaster
Azur Lane
Disney Twisted-Wonderland
Hearthstone
Puzzle & Dragons
Monster Strike
Love and Deepspace
Fate/Grand Order
Starsector
The Duskbloods
Alan Wake 2
Genshin Impact
Clash of Clans
Candy Crush Saga
World of Warcraft
2KXO
Valorant
Subway Surfers
League of Legends
Roblox
Star Citizen
Minecraft
Pokemon TCG Pocket
Fortnite
Any Smash Bros. Game
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25
22
20
18
17
14
6
OptionProbability
Ends within 10 years of release of first episode
S.P.E.W (Society for the Promotion of Elfish Welfare) is featured
Blast-ended skrewt is shown
The same actors play school-age Harry, Ron, and Hermione throughout
Covers all 7 books (i.e. not cancelled/ended early)
St Mungo's Hospital is shown
Colin Creevey is in more than 2 seasons
Ends within 9 years of release of first episode
Is 7 seasons
Harry wears a pointy wizard hat in more than 1 season
Harry Potters most used (spoken) spell is "Expelliarmus"
Ends within 8 years of release of first episode
Muggle Studies class is ever shown
The same actor plays Dumbledore throughout (barring flashbacks/flashforwards with age differences)
Wins at least 1 Primetime Emmy
Wins at least 1 Primetime Emmy in an acting category
Every season is 10 episodes or fewer
Ends within 7 years of release of first episode
Arithmancy class is ever shown
A child actor comes out as trans before 2050
An actor comes out as trans before 2050
There's an episode without Harry on screen at all (barring recap, intro, outro, credits, sneak peeks, etc.)
Book character Cho Chang (i.e. person Harry asks to the Yule Ball) has a different name
A child actor playing a "relevant" character comes out as trans before 2050 (see list)
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83
81
80
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71
66
65
63
63
63
61
57
55
55
50
50
46
45
45
42
41
37
20
OptionProbability
Thompson (2025) "Précis of the blind spot: Why science cannot ignore human experience"
Shimony (1963) "Role of the Observer in Quantum Theory"
French (2025) "Why quantum mechanics needs phenomenology"
Wheeler (1977) "Include the Observer in the Wave Function?"
Pienaar (2021) "QBism and Relational Quantum Mechanics compared"
London & Bauer (1939) "The Theory of Observation in Quantum Mechanics"
Zahavi (2025) "Quantum phenomenology Measurement, reflection, correlation"
Dennett & Kinsbourne (1992) "Time and the observer: The where and when of consciousness in the brain"
Barandiaran et al. (2009) "Defining Agency: Individuality, Normativity, Asymmetry, and Spatio-temporality in Action”
Putnam (1981) "Quantum mechanics and the observer"
Fields (2012) "If Physics Is an Information Science, What Is an Observer?"
Kent (2016) "Quanta and Qualia"
Ball (2023) "How Life Works: A User’s Guide to the New Biology"
James (1879) "Are We Automata?"
Islami & Wiltsche (2025) "The French crisis Rethinking the phenomenology of quantum mechanics"
Pienaar (2025) "French on London and Bauer, and QBism"
Nave (2025) "A Drive to Survive"
Manzotti (2025) "A Deflationary Account of Information in Terms of Probability"
Tod & Thompson (2025) "The Third Entity: Participatory Sense-Making, Agency, and Attentional Dynamics"
Stoica (2025) "What makes you an observer?"
Dieks (2018) "Quantum Mechanics and Perspectivalism"
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100
100
100
100
100
100
58
53
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
49
49
49
0
0
