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OptionProbability
Bond will be a man
Gunplay
Bond drives a car
Bond wears a suit/tuxedo
On screen fatalities
London will appear on screen
Car chase scene
Urban scene
Bond tells ≥1 joke
Blue-eyed Bond
Bond introduces himself as "Bond, James Bond"
World capital other than London appears on screen
A vessel is shown on screen containing any of the following: ketchup, mustard, wasabi, soy sauce, hot sauce, beer, wine, whiskey, cologne, or sulfuric acid.
A named character speaks in a language other than English
Bond will attend a gala, soirée, ball, banquet, masquerade, black-tie event, cocktail party, fundraiser, awards ceremony, premiere, reception, or a charity auction.
Runtime of at least 2 hours/120 minutes.
Bond drinks a martini
Female and/or BIPOC director and/or producer
Opening action sequence
The Tower of London, Big Ben, Buckingham Palace, Wembley, or Heathrow appears on screen.
Gun Barrel Sequence
Sex scene
Q appears
Bond solves ≥ 1 problem non-violently
Hacking electronics of some form
Bond uses explosives
The plot will be predominantly set in present day
Bond disarms someone with a melee weapon using martial arts
The main theme song will be sung by a female
The film features a scene at a UNESCO World Heritage Site.
Fatal-if-missed aerial jump
A Bird (Avian) Will Appear Onscreen for >2 Seconds
Bond will shoot an inanimate object on purpose.
Asia will appear on screen
It will gross more worldwide than No Time to Die ($774M)
Someone goes through a pane of glass
A named character is a double (or triple, etc.) agent
"King" or "Queen" of England mentioned
Bond is on vacation (is shown somewhere for enjoyment, without purpose for his mission)
Someone in the movie says the title
@HenriThunberg enjoys the film
It will feature ≥1 actor that was part of No Time to Die
The villain will use or work in the field of artificial intelligence.
>= 7.0 IMDB rating 1 year after release
The villain is played by an actor who had a lead or recurring role on a prestigious television series that aired on either AMC or HBO.
Actor who plays Bond at least 6' (183 cm) tall
South America, Africa, or Australia will appear on screen
The words "James Bond will return" appear on screen during or after the credits.
Bond rides a motorcycle
>=85 on Tomatometer 1 month after US release
Critics will say it's a return to classic bond
A sniper rifle is fired
At least a portion filmed in Canada
There will be a scene with wagering, gambling or betting
Bond wields a Walther PPK
Interracial sex scene
Pegasus, Phoenix, Griffin, Unicorn, Kraken, Minotaur, Medusa, Cyclops, Sphinx, Kitsune, Chimera, or Thunderbird (any visual representation)
Jungle / forest scene
Bond flys an aircraft
James Bond disobeys orders from MI6 or the British government
Bond attends a soccer match, cricket game, rugby match, boxing/MMA fight, tennis match, e-sport event, the Olympics, a carnival or fair, the opera, or a horse race.
Casino game scene
Bond parachutes
It passes the Bechdel test (two named women talk the each other about anything besides a man)
Bond wears shorts
Bond pays for something by leaving money on a table and walking off without the recipient of the money present
>=7.5 on IMDB 1 month after US release
Arctic scene
Someone uses a euphemism to order a killing
Bond gets slapped
M will be played by Ralph Fiennes
Prison/jail scene
Black market trafficking
A single large explosion occurs on screen at the same time as Bond, and he doesn't look at it
Someone climbs around on the outside of a building
Released in 2028
Skydiving
The main character will order a “Vodka Martini, shaken, not stirred” using that exact phrase.
A Gulf kingdom will appear on screen (e.g. Dubai)
Bond licks something
Bond and a pond shown on screen together
someone combs or brushes their hair (or the hair of another person)
Bond in bondage (not necessarily sexual)
Bond slaps someone
A scene shows James Bond naked
Bond puts something phallic-shaped in his mouth
Bond is violent toward a woman (e.g. painful pulling, slap, throat grip...)
Someone speaks a verbal password phrase to verify their identity, gain access to a location, etc.
There will be a voiced character that is an AI
Bond rides a bicycle
Torture
James Bond talks to a woman while playing a card game.
Bond receives a gunshot wound
A visible countdown clock, which if it reaches zero something bad happens
Wilhelm scream
Main villain has a visible physical defect (scar, handicap, missing limb, ...)
The title will refer to life and/or death
@brunoparga correctly guesses a pun beforehand
Bond plays craps, roulette, or blackjack
Bond drives a boat
A jet ski or snowmobile gets airborne
Someone is shot with a tranquilizer dart or other nonlethal incapacitating projectile (getting wounded with a potentially lethal weapon doesn't count)
James Bond plays poker
Bond commits arson
Oral sex
Bond smokes a cigarette/cigar
Tom Hardy, Cillian Murphy, or Zendaya appear on screen
Martini and a bikini shown on screen at the same time
Bond has facial hair
Terrorists
US premier date is moved forward at least once (has to be numbered date, "summer 2026" doesn't count)
Someone carries a gun disassembled in a nondescript case
A safe is cracked (any means possible)
Actor who plays Bond is a US citizen
Rolex, Aston Martin, Bollinger Champaign product placements (all three)
Desert scene
The ending pitches a next movie (continued story, introduction of villain, venegance, ...)
A pandemic or biological warfare will be a central plot
Ski chase scene
Drug use
Someone/something is x-rayed
Thunderstorm
Dessert scene
An actor who previous played a Bond villain appears (as either a new or recurring character)
President of the United States is mentioned
IF the main villain has a pet that plays a significant role in the plot, this pet is a horse...
Robots
Bond throws food, darts, or a Molotov cocktail
Death of a Bond love interest
It refers to the transition between two British monarchs (Elizabeth, Charles and/or others)
Bond will have a hot, young, American sidekick
Theme song will be performed by a band (more than one artist. Duran Duran did it, so there is precedent.)
There will be a promotional event in Fortnite
Bond wears a mask
Sharks
Cocaine or caviar appears on screen
Bond will be in a submarine
James Bond plays baccarat
Scene with Bond wearing a hat and sunglasses
Cryptocurrency is referenced
Bond complains about the quality of an alcoholic beverage
Bond plays golf, tennis, or croquet
Bond is LQBTQ+
Bond rides an animal
James games (Bond plays any video game, table top board game, or role-playing game) *chess counts, casino games don't
Main villain speaks Russian on screen
Bond has a disability
Nazis (neo- counts)
Bond claims to have retired / quit from the world of espionage
Mexico is shown on screen
Jetpack
The movie will be set during the Cold War (1947-1991)
An EMP device plays a central role.
Climate change/global warming is explicitly mentioned
At least one named character below 18 years old
Orgy
Canada is shown on screen
Will feature something that can turn invisible
A hamburger appears on screen
Moscow, Kyiv, or Paris shown on screen
Underwater combat
Bond goes to space
The word "fuck" is said more than once.
With all this speculation about which kinds of sex acts will be shown, I'm surprised nobody has said it yet, so I'll say it: 𝕓𝕠𝕟𝕕𝕒𝕘𝕖
Bond beds a "lady of the night" (ie. He fucks a prostitute)
Bond is blond
Features a shot with someone lowering a newspaper, magazine or book, revealing they had been surreptitiously spying on someone
Someone sees something incredible, and implicitly ascribes it to alcohol (traditionally, by looking at the bottle)
Theme song is performed by Taylor Swift
A previous Bond actor appears (as either a new or recurring character)
Assplay
Trans character - explicity stated they are trans, no ambiguity (must be on screen for min. 7 seconds and say at least 3 words)
Bond plays Russian roulette
Bond uses a VR headset
Bond has a neck tattoo
Aaron Taylor-Johnson plays Bond
The main villain has a pet that plays a significant role in the plot.
Revealed that "James Bond" has always been a code name.
fight featuring at least one of: viper, mongoose, someone with one of those as their code name
A pinball machine will appear.
Gay sex scene
Pirates
Party and play (PnP), also known as chemsex, scene
Emilia Clarke portrays a character
A character has the codename "Fat Rascal"
Someone asks for payment in "small, unmarked bills" or "negotiable bearer bonds" (wording need not be exact)
Theme song is performed by The Weeknd
San Francisco is shown on screen
Pegging
Another character coincidentally has the first name "James" or surname "Bond" (or both)
Horse cock on screen (flaccid)
Someone uses the word "clip" to refer to a magazine
Satanism
Bond consumes more than 1.5 loads of jizz
A clocks shows the time 4:20
It will be described as featuring AI, such as claims that is uses “AI actors”, as reported by entertainment media.
Feature Nightcore music
Supernatural entities
There will be a character codenamed "Fat Rascal" and they will be played by an American
ChatGPT is referenced by any character
Bond uses chopsticks
Released in 2026
Nuclear explosion
Desert dessert scene (e.g. eating an ice cream in the Sahara)
Any character says the word "anime"
Bond has a mustache (no other facial hair)
Vampires
Bond vapes
Bond won't be Caucasian
The main character will order a “café mocha, double double” using that exact phrase.
Bond dies
Scat play
Bond does depraved sexual acts for money (e.g., bukakke, public gang bangs, period play, etc.)
Contains a joke or indirect reference to the "last night I Bond Burgered your sister" meme
Horse cock on screen (erect)
Prediction markets, origami, or the word "manifold" appear in the movie.
Bond will say the line about snakes on a plane, but only as a metaphor (with snakes representing penises and the plane being his ass).
The handkerchief code is a major plot element
James Bond will say, "I'm rational, rationalussy."
Bond is vegan
The fourth wall is broken
It will be directed by a woman
Bond plays League of Legends
Destiny appears on screen
Bond says, “Enough is enough! I have had it with these motherfucking snakes on this motherfucking plane!”
Dragons
Dinosaurs
It will be directed by Christopher Nolan
Bond hits the griddy
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2
1
1
OptionProbability
“Manifold pro” or similar status w perks
Profile hats
Profile pic borders
Profile Hovercard borders
Leverage (loan) rate increases
Bonus streak forgiveness / freezes
Coolfold's Jester hat
Top hat
Halo
Devil horns
Cat ears
Crystal ball icon on pfp
Wizard hat
Fire-themed hovercard (requires Streak >100days to buy)
Stonks arrow (over pfp)
Bull/Bear horns/ears
Monocle
Cosmetic badges
Some kind of Whale design on pfp, or on hovercard, gated behind 1m all-time volume
Additional site themes
Consumable market decorations
A unique hat that can only be owned by one person but can be stolen
Profile page layout customization
trader bonus multiplier
Spoiler mode (hide current probabilities)
Create a clan / community / group
MtG mana color symbols
Consumable item that lets you highlight a comment
Access to detailed Predictle stats (eg of past games, or of other players' performance)
Discord perks
Boost discounts (limited purchase, e.g. 2/ mo)
Custom league cohort packs for inviting friends to compete
Extra predictle sets
Mod queue priority status
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100
100
100
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79
78
75
66
57
54
50
47
40
39
34
25
21
18
14
14
13
12
4
OptionProbability
Elon Musk
Jensen Huang
Dylan Patel (as guest)
Dwarkesh Patel (see note)
Nicholas Carlini
Dean Ball
Demis Hassabis
Alec Radford
Yann LeCun
Tyler Cowen
Dean Spears
Jack Clark
Amanda Askell
Sarah Paine
François Chollet
Joscha Bach
Tamay Besiroglu
Daniel Kokotajlo
Ian Morris
Sundar Pichai
Satya Nadella
Michael Dell
roon
Mira Murati
Paul J Werbos
Holden Karnofsky
Gary Marcus
Matt Levine
George Hotz
Ajeya Cotra
Joe Carlsmith
Noam Brown
Hans Moravec
Nate Soares
Doris Taylor
Eliezer Yudkowsky
Ilya Sutskever
Scott Alexander
Carl Shulman
Joe Henrich
Zvi Mowshowitz
Michael Levin
Helen Toner
Bill Gates
Mustafa Suleyman
Sam Altman
Jeff Bezos
Nick Bostrom
Liang Wenfeng (CEO of DeepSeek)
Andrej Karpathy
Janus @repligate
Tanner Greer
Mark Zuckerberg
Dan Hendrycks
David Reich
Barack Obama
Robert Caro
Xiao Hong (CEO of Manus AI)
Kamala Harris
Donald Trump
Bill Clinton
100
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50
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35
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33
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8
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6
OptionProbability
Idols (hidden individual immunity, whether found at camp, obtained through beware advantages, journeys, or otherwise)
Advantages: Dynamic Power
Tribe Swap (YES) / No Tribe Swap (NO)
Live Finale and Reunion Show in LA (YES) / Winner Reveal and After show in Fiji (NO)
Lots of twists (YES) / Straightforward game (NO)
Final Four Challenge: Option C (Simmotion; the ball track one)
Final Four Challenge: Option A (Plinko + Puzzle)
Final Four Fire Making (YES) / Final four elimination decided by vote (NO)
Final Four Challenge: Option B (Obstacle course ft mud and puzzle)
Start with rice (YES) / Make them earn rice (NO)
Advantages: Minimal Power
Advantages: Strategic Power
100
100
99
98
74
45
32
20
20
0
0
0
OptionProbability
Quintuple jump landed in figure skating competition
Shot put thrown >24.00 meters
15+ balls juggled successfully
110+ mph fastball thrown in professional baseball game
Stone skipped 89+ times
90+ yard field goal kicked in American football
Quintuple corkscrew landed in tricking
>60 kilometers cycled in one hour
100 meter dash completed in <9.00 seconds
NBA player with >1200 career free throw attempts averages 95%+ completion rate
39
22
14
6
6
6
4
2
1
1
OptionProbability
Other
Kamala Harris
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
Ivanka Trump
Gretchen Whitmer
Nikki Haley
Stacey Abrams
Kristi Noem
Anna Paulina Luna
Deb Haaland
Krystal Ball
Carly Fiorina
Michelle Obama
Katie Porter
Elizabeth Warren
Tammy Baldwin
Tammy Duckworth
Oprah Winfrey
Michelle Lujan Grisham
Sarah Huckabee Sanders
Ayanna Pressley
Joni Ernst
Tina Kotek
Katie Hobbs
Barbara Lee
Young Kim
Lucy McBath
Cori Bush
Hillary Clinton
Meghan Markle, Duchess of Sussex
69
7
6
6
3
2
1
1
1
1
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
OptionProbability
Kim Bowes
Martha Nussbaum
Henry Oliver
Magnus Carlsen
Dean Ball
Rebecca Lowe
Emily Wilson
Patrick Collison (again)
Hollis Robbins
C Thi Nguyen
Francis Fukuyama
Tom Holland (the historian)
Jamie Dimon
Caroline Shaw
Ted Chiang
Will Baude
Sir Demis Hassabis
Jan Swafford
Bishop Robert Barron
William Gibson
Vaclav Smil
Robert Sapolsky
Jonathan Sumption
Samuel Scheffler
Aella
Knausgaard (again)
Jensen Huang
Kathleen Tyson
John Ioannidis
Werner Herzog
Haruki Murakami
Cremieux
Michel Houellebecq
David Runciman
William Hague
Ben Goldacre
Oprah Winfrey
Dua Lipa
Hillary Clinton
Thomas Sowell
Novak Djokovic
Bill Gates
Lana Del Rey
Bari Weiss
Scott Alexander
100
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100
78
63
53
51
48
45
42
39
38
38
31
29
28
27
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26
26
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19
17
16
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14
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13
10
10
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OptionProbability
Someone qualifies 12 balls in 2025
Eivind Dragsjo wins the 2025 Numbers Juggling League
Someone performs the trick f4444444444, from and to a cascade, before the end of 2026 (similarly to https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=42LOiJE5yLg)
Someone flashes 15 balls before the end of 2027
Someone flashes 14 balls in 2025
At least 5 different endurance world records will be broken in 2025
At least 10 different endurance world records will be broken in 2025
Someone flashes 10 clubs in 2025
The European Juggling Convention 2025 is cancelled
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100
43
17
0
0
0
0
0
OptionProbability
Ends within 10 years of release of first episode
S.P.E.W (Society for the Promotion of Elfish Welfare) is featured
Blast-ended skrewt is shown
The same actors play school-age Harry, Ron, and Hermione throughout
Covers all 7 books (i.e. not cancelled/ended early)
St Mungo's Hospital is shown
Colin Creevey is in more than 2 seasons
Ends within 9 years of release of first episode
Is 7 seasons
Harry wears a pointy wizard hat in more than 1 season
Harry Potters most used (spoken) spell is "Expelliarmus"
Ends within 8 years of release of first episode
Muggle Studies class is ever shown
The same actor plays Dumbledore throughout (barring flashbacks/flashforwards with age differences)
Wins at least 1 Primetime Emmy
Wins at least 1 Primetime Emmy in an acting category
Every season is 10 episodes or fewer
Ends within 7 years of release of first episode
Arithmancy class is ever shown
A child actor comes out as trans before 2050
An actor comes out as trans before 2050
There's an episode without Harry on screen at all (barring recap, intro, outro, credits, sneak peeks, etc.)
Book character Cho Chang (i.e. person Harry asks to the Yule Ball) has a different name
A child actor playing a "relevant" character comes out as trans before 2050 (see list)
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20
OptionProbability
Bloodborne
Dragon Ball Legends
Nikke
Arknights
Gakuen Idolmaster
Azur Lane
Disney Twisted-Wonderland
Puzzle & Dragons
Monster Strike
Hearthstone
Love and Deepspace
Fate/Grand Order
Alan Wake 2
Starsector
The Duskbloods
Genshin Impact
Honkai: Star Rail
Clash of Clans
2KXO
Candy Crush Saga
World of Warcraft
Valorant
Subway Surfers
League of Legends
Roblox
Star Citizen
Minecraft
Pokemon TCG Pocket
Fortnite
Any Smash Bros. Game
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41
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33
28
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21
18
17
15
8
OptionProbability
vs. MVSU
vs. UMass
vs. Kent State
at Ball State
at Bowling Green
at Eastern Michigan
at Central Michigan
vs. Ohio
at Hawaii
at Fresno State
vs. Toledo
vs. North Dakota State
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50
48
36
34
33
18
18
12
OptionProbability
Thompson (2025) "Précis of the blind spot: Why science cannot ignore human experience"
Shimony (1963) "Role of the Observer in Quantum Theory"
French (2025) "Why quantum mechanics needs phenomenology"
Wheeler (1977) "Include the Observer in the Wave Function?"
Pienaar (2021) "QBism and Relational Quantum Mechanics compared"
London & Bauer (1939) "The Theory of Observation in Quantum Mechanics"
Zahavi (2025) "Quantum phenomenology Measurement, reflection, correlation"
Dennett & Kinsbourne (1992) "Time and the observer: The where and when of consciousness in the brain"
Barandiaran et al. (2009) "Defining Agency: Individuality, Normativity, Asymmetry, and Spatio-temporality in Action”
Putnam (1981) "Quantum mechanics and the observer"
Fields (2012) "If Physics Is an Information Science, What Is an Observer?"
Kent (2016) "Quanta and Qualia"
Ball (2023) "How Life Works: A User’s Guide to the New Biology"
James (1879) "Are We Automata?"
Islami & Wiltsche (2025) "The French crisis Rethinking the phenomenology of quantum mechanics"
Pienaar (2025) "French on London and Bauer, and QBism"
Nave (2025) "A Drive to Survive"
Manzotti (2025) "A Deflationary Account of Information in Terms of Probability"
Tod & Thompson (2025) "The Third Entity: Participatory Sense-Making, Agency, and Attentional Dynamics"
Stoica (2025) "What makes you an observer?"
Dieks (2018) "Quantum Mechanics and Perspectivalism"
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58
53
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0
0