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OptionProbability
Bond will be a man
Gunplay
Bond drives a car
On screen fatalities
London will appear on screen
Car chase scene
Urban scene
Bond wears a suit/tuxedo
Bond tells ≥1 joke
Bond introduces himself as "Bond, James Bond"
A vessel is shown on screen containing any of the following: ketchup, mustard, wasabi, soy sauce, hot sauce, beer, wine, whiskey, cologne, or sulfuric acid.
A named character speaks in a language other than English
Bond will attend a gala, soirée, ball, banquet, masquerade, black-tie event, cocktail party, fundraiser, awards ceremony, premiere, reception, or a charity auction.
Bond drinks a martini
Female and/or BIPOC director and/or producer
Opening action sequence
The Tower of London, Big Ben, Buckingham Palace, Wembley, or Heathrow appears on screen.
Gun Barrel Sequence
Sex scene
World capital other than London appears on screen
Hacking electronics of some form
Q appears
Runtime of at least 2 hours/120 minutes.
Bond solves ≥ 1 problem non-violently
Bond uses explosives
The plot will be predominantly set in present day
Bond disarms someone with a melee weapon using martial arts
The main theme song will be sung by a female
The film features a scene at a UNESCO World Heritage Site.
Fatal-if-missed aerial jump
A Bird (Avian) Will Appear Onscreen for >2 Seconds
Bond will shoot an inanimate object on purpose.
Asia will appear on screen
Someone goes through a pane of glass
A named character is a double (or triple, etc.) agent
It will gross more worldwide than No Time to Die ($774M)
The villain will use or work in the field of artificial intelligence.
"King" or "Queen" of England mentioned
Bond is on vacation (is shown somewhere for enjoyment, without purpose for his mission)
Someone in the movie says the title
@HenriThunberg enjoys the film
It will feature ≥1 actor that was part of No Time to Die
The villain is played by an actor who had a lead or recurring role on a prestigious television series that aired on either AMC or HBO.
South America, Africa, or Australia will appear on screen
The words "James Bond will return" appear on screen during or after the credits.
Bond rides a motorcycle
A single large explosion occurs on screen at the same time as Bond, and he doesn't look at it
>=85 on Tomatometer 1 month after US release
Critics will say it's a return to classic bond
A sniper rifle is fired
At least a portion filmed in Canada
Blue-eyed Bond
There will be a scene with wagering, gambling or betting
Bond wields a Walther PPK
Interracial sex scene
Pegasus, Phoenix, Griffin, Unicorn, Kraken, Minotaur, Medusa, Cyclops, Sphinx, Kitsune, Chimera, or Thunderbird (any visual representation)
Jungle / forest scene
M will be played by Ralph Fiennes
Bond flys an aircraft
James Bond disobeys orders from MI6 or the British government
Bond attends a soccer match, cricket game, rugby match, boxing/MMA fight, tennis match, e-sport event, the Olympics, a carnival or fair, the opera, or a horse race.
Casino game scene
>= 7.0 IMDB rating 1 year after release
Bond parachutes
It passes the Bechdel test (two named women talk the each other about anything besides a man)
Bond wears shorts
Bond pays for something by leaving money on a table and walking off without the recipient of the money present
>=7.5 on IMDB 1 month after US release
Arctic scene
Someone uses a euphemism to order a killing
Bond gets slapped
Prison/jail scene
A jet ski or snowmobile gets airborne
Black market trafficking
Someone climbs around on the outside of a building
Released in 2028
Skydiving
The main character will order a “Vodka Martini, shaken, not stirred” using that exact phrase.
Bond licks something
Bond and a pond shown on screen together
Main villain has a visible physical defect (scar, handicap, missing limb, ...)
someone combs or brushes their hair (or the hair of another person)
Bond in bondage (not necessarily sexual)
Bond slaps someone
A scene shows James Bond naked
Actor who plays Bond at least 6' (183 cm) tall
Death of a Bond love interest
James Bond talks to a woman while playing a card game.
A Gulf kingdom will appear on screen (e.g. Dubai)
Bond puts something phallic-shaped in his mouth
Bond is violent toward a woman (e.g. painful pulling, slap, throat grip...)
There will be a voiced character that is an AI
Bond rides a bicycle
Torture
Bond receives a gunshot wound
A visible countdown clock, which if it reaches zero something bad happens
Wilhelm scream
The title will refer to life and/or death
@brunoparga correctly guesses a pun beforehand
Bond plays craps, roulette, or blackjack
Bond drives a boat
A safe is cracked (any means possible)
Someone is shot with a tranquilizer dart or other nonlethal incapacitating projectile (getting wounded with a potentially lethal weapon doesn't count)
James Bond plays poker
Bond commits arson
Cryptocurrency is referenced
Oral sex
Bond smokes a cigarette/cigar
Tom Hardy, Cillian Murphy, or Zendaya appear on screen
Martini and a bikini shown on screen at the same time
Terrorists
US premier date is moved forward at least once (has to be numbered date, "summer 2026" doesn't count)
Someone carries a gun disassembled in a nondescript case
Someone speaks a verbal password phrase to verify their identity, gain access to a location, etc.
Actor who plays Bond is a US citizen
A pandemic or biological warfare will be a central plot
Desert scene
Nazis (neo- counts)
The ending pitches a next movie (continued story, introduction of villain, venegance, ...)
Ski chase scene
Drug use
Someone/something is x-rayed
Thunderstorm
Dessert scene
An actor who previous played a Bond villain appears (as either a new or recurring character)
President of the United States is mentioned
IF the main villain has a pet that plays a significant role in the plot, this pet is a horse...
Robots
Bond throws food, darts, or a Molotov cocktail
It refers to the transition between two British monarchs (Elizabeth, Charles and/or others)
Bond has facial hair
Bond will have a hot, young, American sidekick
Theme song will be performed by a band (more than one artist. Duran Duran did it, so there is precedent.)
There will be a promotional event in Fortnite
Bond wears a mask
Sharks
Cocaine or caviar appears on screen
James Bond plays baccarat
Scene with Bond wearing a hat and sunglasses
Bond complains about the quality of an alcoholic beverage
Bond plays golf, tennis, or croquet
Bond will be in a submarine
Bond goes to space
Bond is LQBTQ+
Bond rides an animal
James games (Bond plays any video game, table top board game, or role-playing game) *chess counts, casino games don't
Rolex, Aston Martin, Bollinger Champaign product placements (all three)
Main villain speaks Russian on screen
Bond has a disability
Bond claims to have retired / quit from the world of espionage
Mexico is shown on screen
Moscow, Kyiv, or Paris shown on screen
Jetpack
The movie will be set during the Cold War (1947-1991)
A previous Bond actor appears (as either a new or recurring character)
Trans character - explicity stated they are trans, no ambiguity (must be on screen for min. 7 seconds and say at least 3 words)
An EMP device plays a central role.
Climate change/global warming is explicitly mentioned
At least one named character below 18 years old
Canada is shown on screen
Orgy
Will feature something that can turn invisible
Someone asks for payment in "small, unmarked bills" or "negotiable bearer bonds" (wording need not be exact)
Underwater combat
The word "fuck" is said more than once.
With all this speculation about which kinds of sex acts will be shown, I'm surprised nobody has said it yet, so I'll say it: 𝕓𝕠𝕟𝕕𝕒𝕘𝕖
Bond beds a "lady of the night" (ie. He fucks a prostitute)
The main villain has a pet that plays a significant role in the plot.
Bond is blond
Features a shot with someone lowering a newspaper, magazine or book, revealing they had been surreptitiously spying on someone
Someone sees something incredible, and implicitly ascribes it to alcohol (traditionally, by looking at the bottle)
A pinball machine will appear.
Pirates
Theme song is performed by Taylor Swift
Assplay
Bond plays Russian roulette
Emilia Clarke portrays a character
Bond won't be Caucasian
A hamburger appears on screen
Bond uses a VR headset
Bond has a neck tattoo
Aaron Taylor-Johnson plays Bond
Nuclear explosion
Someone uses the word "clip" to refer to a magazine
Satanism
Revealed that "James Bond" has always been a code name.
fight featuring at least one of: viper, mongoose, someone with one of those as their code name
It will be described as featuring AI, such as claims that is uses “AI actors”, as reported by entertainment media.
Gay sex scene
ChatGPT is referenced by any character
Party and play (PnP), also known as chemsex, scene
Bond has a mustache (no other facial hair)
A character has the codename "Fat Rascal"
Theme song is performed by The Weeknd
San Francisco is shown on screen
Pegging
Another character coincidentally has the first name "James" or surname "Bond" (or both)
Horse cock on screen (flaccid)
Bond consumes more than 1.5 loads of jizz
A clocks shows the time 4:20
Feature Nightcore music
Supernatural entities
Prediction markets, origami, or the word "manifold" appear in the movie.
There will be a character codenamed "Fat Rascal" and they will be played by an American
Bond uses chopsticks
Released in 2026
Desert dessert scene (e.g. eating an ice cream in the Sahara)
Any character says the word "anime"
Vampires
Bond vapes
The main character will order a “café mocha, double double” using that exact phrase.
Bond dies
The fourth wall is broken
Scat play
Bond does depraved sexual acts for money (e.g., bukakke, public gang bangs, period play, etc.)
Contains a joke or indirect reference to the "last night I Bond Burgered your sister" meme
Horse cock on screen (erect)
Bond will say the line about snakes on a plane, but only as a metaphor (with snakes representing penises and the plane being his ass).
The handkerchief code is a major plot element
James Bond will say, "I'm rational, rationalussy."
Bond is vegan
It will be directed by a woman
Bond plays League of Legends
Destiny appears on screen
Bond says, “Enough is enough! I have had it with these motherfucking snakes on this motherfucking plane!”
Dragons
Dinosaurs
It will be directed by Christopher Nolan
Bond hits the griddy
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1
1
OptionProbability
Finishes Virdian Forest before step 1073
Beats Brock before step 2381
Finishes Mt. Moon before step 8247
Beats Misty before step 9076
Defeats Surge before step 15266
Finishes Rock Tunnel before step 20426
Defeats Erika
Gets the lift key
Defeats Koga
Defeats Sabrina
Defeats Blaine
Defeats Gym Leader Giovanni
Gets HM03 (Surf) from the Safari Zone
Gets the lift key before step 20000
Gets HM02 (Fly)
Still in Celadon at 15,000 steps
Enters Erika's Gym or Rocket Hideout before step 50000
Enters Erika's Gym or Rocket Hideout before step 25000
Gets Silph Scope or defeats Erika before 30,000 steps
Gets Silph Scope
Gets a fourth badge before 35,000 steps
Gets HM03(Surf) or any fourth badge before 45,000 steps
Gets a bicycle
Defeats Silph Co Giovanni
Still in Saffron City at 35,000 steps
Still in Saffron City at 40,000 steps
Still in Saffron City at 50,000 steps
Gets the Lapras in Silph Co.
Still in Saffron City at 75,000 steps.
Picks up an item between steps 50,000-75,000
Stands next to the Key Card again (after step 63,000)
Stands next to the Key Card again (after step 66,000)
Stands next to the Card Key again (after step 73,300)
Defeats Silph Co Giovanni before step 90,000
Gets a fifth badge before 90,000 steps
Reaches a step count of 150,000
Gets a sixth badge before 98,400 steps
Reaches a step count of 200,000
Gets Gold Teeth from the Safari Zone
Reaches Cinnabar Island before traversing Seafoam Islands
Defeats Gym Leader Giovanni within 1000 steps of defeating Blaine (Giovanni victory music before step 205,060)
Finishes Pokemon Mansion
Walks through the northeastern B1F gate again (after step 132,000)
Blaze reaches level 80
Gets Gold Teeth before step 210,000
Digs before finishing the 1st boulder puzzle
Run ends/is reset because new Claude version is released
DIGs a total of 50 times or more
BLAZE reaches level 90
Solves the 1st boulder puzzle
Reaches a step count of 300,000
Performs a swag boulder (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JGK022LJ1do)
Reaches a step count of 350,000
Reaches a step count of 400,000
Any pokemon other than BLAZE gains a level (after step 83,847)
Claude gets a sixth pokemon in his party.
Revives the Dome Fossil
Uses an item other than a ball in battle
Solves the 2nd boulder puzzle
Solves the 3rd boulder puzzle
Gets HM05 (Flash)
Stores an item in the PC
Enters Seafoam Islands
BLAZE reaches level 100
Surfs in the Safari Zone
Finishes Victory Road before step 300,000
Defeats the champion
Gets Eevee
Catches Articuno/Moltres/Zapdos
Gets Hitmonlee
Gets Hitmonchan
Catches a pokemon in the Safari Zone
Claude throws a Pokeball in Safari Zone
Defeats the champion before step 233,000
Catches Mew
Blacks out at least three times in Mt. Moon
Still in Celadon at 30,000 steps
Gets a fifth badge before 37,000 steps
Gets a fifth badge before 50,000 steps
Still in Saffron City at 100,000 steps
Leaves Saffron City without the card key
Visits Safari Zone before Koga's gym
Finds the Card Key before 75,000 steps
Interacts with the Key Card without picking it up
Stands next to the Card Key 5 more times (after step 73,300)
Gets a seventh badge before 115,000 steps
Gets HMO3(Surf) and the Golden Teeth in the same Safari Zone attempt
Finishes Pokemon Mansion before 100,000 steps
Finishes Pokemon Mansion before 97,500 steps
Finishes Pokemon Mansion before 110,000 steps
Finishes Pokemon Mansion faster than Silph Co. (before step 142963)
Finishes Pokemon Mansion before step 120,000
Finishes Pokemon Mansion before step 130,000
Finishes Pokemon Mansion while stream is offline
Sees a strength rock before returning to Safari Zone
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8
4
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0
OptionProbability
“Manifold pro” or similar status w perks
Profile hats
Profile pic borders
Profile Hovercard borders
Leverage (loan) rate increases
Bonus streak forgiveness / freezes
Cosmetic badges
Stonks arrow (over pfp)
Cat ears
Some kind of Whale design on pfp, or on hovercard, gated behind 1m all-time volume
Wizard hat
Coolfold's Jester hat
Top hat
Consumable market decorations
Additional site themes
trader bonus multiplier
Monocle
Fire-themed hovercard (requires Streak >100days to buy)
Halo
Devil horns
Profile page layout customization
A unique hat that can only be owned by one person but can be stolen
Spoiler mode (hide current probabilities)
Crystal ball icon on pfp
Bull/Bear horns/ears
MtG mana color symbols
Create a clan / community / group
Custom league cohort packs for inviting friends to compete
Extra predictle sets
Access to detailed Predictle stats (eg of past games, or of other players' performance)
Consumable item that lets you highlight a comment
Boost discounts (limited purchase, e.g. 2/ mo)
Discord perks
Mod queue priority status
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OptionProbability
Sarah Paine
Dean Ball
Dwarkesh Patel (see note)
Demis Hassabis
Dylan Patel (as guest)
Dean Spears
Yann LeCun
Tyler Cowen
Tamay Besiroglu
Satya Nadella
Holden Karnofsky
Alec Radford
Gary Marcus
Amanda Askell
Elon Musk
François Chollet
Joscha Bach
Sundar Pichai
Jack Clark
Jensen Huang
Michael Dell
Mira Murati
Joe Carlsmith
Ian Morris
Sam Altman
Bill Gates
roon
Paul J Werbos
Zvi Mowshowitz
Matt Levine
George Hotz
Helen Toner
Ajeya Cotra
Noam Brown
Hans Moravec
Mustafa Suleyman
Doris Taylor
Jeff Bezos
Michael Levin
Eliezer Yudkowsky
Nick Bostrom
Carl Shulman
Ilya Sutskever
David Reich
Janus @repligate
Tanner Greer
Mark Zuckerberg
Dan Hendrycks
Liang Wenfeng (CEO of DeepSeek)
Nate Soares
Joe Henrich
Andrej Karpathy
Scott Alexander
Barack Obama
Robert Caro
Xiao Hong (CEO of Manus AI)
Kamala Harris
Donald Trump
Bill Clinton
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OptionProbability
Other
Kamala Harris
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
Ivanka Trump
Gretchen Whitmer
Nikki Haley
Stacey Abrams
Kristi Noem
Anna Paulina Luna
Deb Haaland
Krystal Ball
Carly Fiorina
Michelle Obama
Katie Porter
Elizabeth Warren
Tammy Baldwin
Tammy Duckworth
Oprah Winfrey
Michelle Lujan Grisham
Sarah Huckabee Sanders
Ayanna Pressley
Joni Ernst
Tina Kotek
Katie Hobbs
Barbara Lee
Young Kim
Lucy McBath
Cori Bush
Hillary Clinton
Meghan Markle, Duchess of Sussex
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0
0
0
0
0
0
0
OptionProbability
Ohio - Brian Smith
Toledo - Jason Candle
Western Michigan - Lance Taylor
UMass - Joe Harasymiak
Buffalo - Pete Lembo
Central Michigan - Matt Drinkall
Miami (OH) - Chuck Martin
Northern Illinois - Thomas Hammock
Eastern Michigan - Chris Creighton
Akron - Joe Moorhead
Ball State - Mike Uremovich
Bowling Green - Eddie George
Kent State - Mark Carney
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28
25
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24
21
21
20
20
OptionProbability
Someone qualifies 12 balls in 2025
Eivind Dragsjo wins the 2025 Numbers Juggling League
Someone performs the trick f4444444444, from and to a cascade, before the end of 2026 (similarly to https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=42LOiJE5yLg)
Someone flashes 15 balls before the end of 2027
Someone flashes 14 balls in 2025
At least 5 different endurance world records will be broken in 2025
At least 10 different endurance world records will be broken in 2025
Someone flashes 10 clubs in 2025
The European Juggling Convention 2025 is cancelled
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28
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OptionProbability
Idols (hidden individual immunity, whether found at camp, obtained through beware advantages, journeys, or otherwise)
Live Finale and Reunion Show in LA (YES) / Winner Reveal and After show in Fiji (NO)
Tribe Swap (YES) / No Tribe Swap (NO)
Start with rice (YES) / Make them earn rice (NO)
Lots of twists (YES) / Straightforward game (NO)
Final Four Challenge: Option C (Simmotion; the ball track one)
Advantages: Dynamic Power
Advantages: Minimal Power
Advantages: Strategic Power
Final Four Challenge: Option A (Plinko + Puzzle)
Final Four Fire Making (YES) / Final four elimination decided by vote (NO)
Final Four Challenge: Option B (Obstacle course ft mud and puzzle)
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OptionProbability
Ends within 10 years of release of first episode
S.P.E.W (Society for the Promotion of Elfish Welfare) is featured
Covers all 7 books (i.e. not cancelled/ended early)
The same actors play school-age Harry, Ron, and Hermione throughout
Colin Creevey is in more than 2 seasons
Ends within 9 years of release of first episode
Is 7 seasons
Harry wears a pointy wizard hat in more than 1 season
Harry Potters most used (spoken) spell is "Expelliarmus"
There's an episode without Harry on screen at all (barring recap, intro, outro, credits, sneak peeks, etc.)
Ends within 8 years of release of first episode
St Mungo's Hospital is shown
Muggle Studies class is ever shown
The same actor plays Dumbledore throughout (barring flashbacks/flashforwards with age differences)
Wins at least 1 Primetime Emmy
Blast-ended skrewt is shown
Wins at least 1 Primetime Emmy in an acting category
Every season is 10 episodes or fewer
An actor comes out as trans before 2050
Ends within 7 years of release of first episode
Arithmancy class is ever shown
A child actor comes out as trans before 2050
Book character Cho Chang (i.e. person Harry asks to the Yule Ball) has a different name
A child actor playing a "relevant" character comes out as trans before 2050 (see list)
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OptionProbability
Bloodborne
Dragon Ball Legends
Nikke
Arknights
Gakuen Idolmaster
Azur Lane
Disney Twisted-Wonderland
Puzzle & Dragons
Monster Strike
Hearthstone
Love and Deepspace
Fate/Grand Order
Alan Wake 2
Starsector
The Duskbloods
Genshin Impact
Honkai: Star Rail
Clash of Clans
2KXO
Candy Crush Saga
World of Warcraft
Valorant
Subway Surfers
League of Legends
Roblox
Star Citizen
Pokemon TCG Pocket
Minecraft
Fortnite
Any Smash Bros. Game
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OptionProbability
Henry Oliver
Magnus Carlsen
Kim Bowes
Patrick Collison (again)
Hollis Robbins
Tom Holland (the historian)
Jamie Dimon
Francis Fukuyama
Dean Ball
Emily Wilson
C Thi Nguyen
Jan Swafford
Sir Demis Hassabis
Robert Sapolsky
Ted Chiang
Samuel Scheffler
Martha Nussbaum
Will Baude
Werner Herzog
Bishop Robert Barron
William Gibson
Vaclav Smil
Michel Houellebecq
Jonathan Sumption
Knausgaard (again)
Kathleen Tyson
John Ioannidis
Aella
Jensen Huang
Haruki Murakami
Cremieux
Bill Gates
Thomas Sowell
Novak Djokovic
Bari Weiss
Hillary Clinton
Scott Alexander
Oprah Winfrey
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OptionProbability
Thompson (2025) "Précis of the blind spot: Why science cannot ignore human experience"
Shimony (1963) "Role of the Observer in Quantum Theory"
French (2025) "Why quantum mechanics needs phenomenology"
Wheeler (1977) "Include the Observer in the Wave Function?"
Pienaar (2021) "QBism and Relational Quantum Mechanics compared"
London & Bauer (1939) "The Theory of Observation in Quantum Mechanics"
Zahavi (2025) "Quantum phenomenology Measurement, reflection, correlation"
Dennett & Kinsbourne (1992) "Time and the observer: The where and when of consciousness in the brain"
Putnam (1981) "Quantum mechanics and the observer"
Fields (2012) "If Physics Is an Information Science, What Is an Observer?"
Kent (2016) "Quanta and Qualia"
Ball (2023) "How Life Works: A User’s Guide to the New Biology"
James (1879) "Are We Automata?"
Islami & Wiltsche (2025) "The French crisis Rethinking the phenomenology of quantum mechanics"
Pienaar (2025) "French on London and Bauer, and QBism"
Barandiaran et al. (2009) "Defining Agency: Individuality, Normativity, Asymmetry, and Spatio-temporality in Action”
Nave (2025) "A Drive to Survive"
Manzotti (2025) "A Deflationary Account of Information in Terms of Probability"
Tod & Thompson (2025) "The Third Entity: Participatory Sense-Making, Agency, and Attentional Dynamics"
Stoica (2025) "What makes you an observer?"
Dieks (2018) "Quantum Mechanics and Perspectivalism"
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