Balls Up News

Lionel Messi to score at least one goal

Someone scores 5+ goals within group stage

USA survives group stage

2+ red cards in any match

Goal from last kick of the game

Cristiano Ronaldo to score a goal

Mexico survives group stage

3+ red cards in any match

6+ yellow cards in any match

Red card issued for mouth covering

Team with 0 wins in Group Stage

Black player gets the red card

Bicycle kick attempt

Team scores after being down to 10 men

Both teams score in stoppage time

Player scores against country of birth/heritage

Player bleeding on camera during match

Team loses possession from delay throw-in

Player scores a hat-trick

Over 7.5 goals scored in a single group stage match

Play suspended for more than 1.5 hours in a single match

Teenager scores a goal (non penalty shoot-out)

Team finishes match with 9 players

French-born player scores against France

Goal scored directly from a free-kick

A coach is sacked before the end of the tournament

Player not born in the country they are playing for scores 2+ goals

“Puto” chant at match

Referee falls down

Any host places 1st in their group

Curaçao scores a goal

Haaland scores over 3.5 goals

Vuvuzela spotted in the stadium stands

At least two Mohammeds (all variants) score ≥1 goal

gruesome leg/ankle/arm injury

Will Cristiano Ronaldo Score Atleast A Goal In Next Match Against Uzbekistan

Foam spray is used on field to mark penalty / free kick

Cape Verde scores a goal

Total goals in the tournament to exceed 200

Canada survives group stage

Trump still alive at end of final match

3+ penalty shootout

Player is complaining about the Trionda ball / blames it for the losing

The Golden Boot winner to score 6+ goals

Messi is top Argentinian goal-scorer

Fan hospitalized for heat related illness

20+ penalty goals

Over 9.5 own goals scored

Over 10.5 red cards

Kylian Mbappe & Harry Kane to Score 9+ Goals Combined

Neymar plays in a match

Trump attends match

Unauthorized person gets on the pitch during match

Team ends Group Stage with a clean sheet

Players cleat falls off their foot

Team makes it to Round of 32 with no goals conceded

Messi scores a goal at 39 years old

Ronaldo to cry at the world cup

A penalty shootout contains a missed winning kick (Matchball)

US scores in every single group stage match

Team is undefeated for the entire tournament (only wins & draws)

Will any group finish with either all draws or zero draws?

VAR to overturn at least 20 decisions

South American team reaches semi-final

Champion is unbeaten

Bottle thrown on field

Champion is a first place group stage winner

Single top goalscorer in tournament (not tied)

2+ European countries reach top 4

Any player scores at least a goal 3 matches in a row

Asian player misses penalty kick

Ronaldo gets in referee face

Another match day ending in all draws (regular time)

Penalty shootout to decide a quarter-final match

Messi gets a yellow card

Golden Boot Winner wears Nike branded cleats

Asian player gets the red card

Visible debris thrown during corner kick attempt

The ballon d’or is awarded to a player from World Cup winner

5+ group stage winners advance with 9 points (3 wins)

Trump kicks or holds a soccer ball at any time during tournament

A fully southern hemisphere team (Australia, NZ, South Africa, Uruguay or Argentina) makes semi finals.

No red cards issued in the Final match

US goes further than Mexico

Will either Bosnia and Herzegovina or Qatar advance to the next round?

Flipping Coinflips – Do teams shooting first win more penalty shootouts?

Both teams in final have red on their flag

Over 289.5 total goals scored*

Will any more team(s) from Europe finish 4th in the group?

The Golden Ball is awarded to a player from tournament winner

Freddy attends the final match

Messi to score a free kick

Over 6.5 matches ending 0-0 (regular time only)

Over 202.5 goals scored in group stage

Coaches of both teams in final match are wearing suits

Any one of Harry Kane, Kylian Mbappe, or Erling Haaland to score a hattrick

Penalty shootout to decide semi-final match

Someone escorted off field shirtless

More own goals than red cards in tourney

Players from any other league outscore PL players in the tournament

Team loses after leading 2-0

Elon Musk attends match

15+ minutes of the stoppage time

Total goals in the tournament to exceed 300

Any host nation in quarter final

USA to reach the Quarter-finals or further

Player with the heat stroke / heat related illness

A player or their teams gets sanctioned by FIFA (i. e. a fine, an overturned result, a suspension) for a goal celebration with a political or politics-adjacent message

Last penalty shoot-out kick of tournament is missed/saved

Messi and Ronaldo play in the same match

Unofficial drone is reported flying over a stadium

2 UEFA teams in final

Player tears their ACL

Weather postponement or delay for greater than 3 hours

Flares in stands during match in USA

Crowd jump registers on local seismic sensor

Betting scandal reported

Spain goes further than France

Laser pointer on goalie during match

Final is a rematch of a previous World Cup

Goal scored within 1st minute

VAR overturns second yellow card

Hooligans light the fireworks at night by team hotel for disruption

Any match is canceled or postponed

The Golden Boot winner to score 8+ goals

30+ penalty goals

USA player gets the red card

Disruption at Iran match

5+ hat tricks

Canada goes further than US

Youngest player of the tournament scores a goal

6+ teams with negative goal difference advance from the group stage

3 or more coaches resign or are fired before end of World Cup

Team captain gets red card

Palestinian or Israeli flag on field during match

Will Merlin the duck correctly predict both remaining MEX group stage matches?

Final features a team that has never made it to the final before

Winning team has a foreign manager

Haaland scores on every game he plays

Bald person gets the red card

Player blames an injury on poor stadium grass

Taylor Swift & Travis Kelce attend match

Over 395.5 yellow cards

Both players in this photo* play each other in a match

Record for hottest WC match ever played broken (>101°)

A penalty shootout to decide the Final match

Trump acts innapropriate with trophy at final

Play suspended for more than 2.5 hours in a single match

World Champion's goals > total goals of all teams out in group stage

Any two brothers play against each other (Both must be on the pitch at the same time)

First penalty shootout kick of tournament is missed/saved

Team reaches the quarter-finals through draws and penalties

Champion is a first time World Cup winner

Team particpates in 3+ penalty shoot-outs

Goalkeeper attempts shot in PKs

Smoke bomb during match in USA

Over 30.5 penalties scored (excludes shoot-outs)

Golden boot & golden ball won by the same player

Match has a dedicated moment of silence

Messi scores on every game he plays

Ronaldo does not start

The Golden Boot winner is decided by # assists

Player gets spat on during match

25+ people arrested at stadium

Salt Bae attending a match

Game is turned around in stoppage team (one team leads at 90:00, the other team scores twice or more in stoppage time to win it)

Team makes it to Round of 16 with zero yellow cards

Team USA fans pull off a decent Tifo

Freddy shown during a match broadcast

England loses on penalties

Animal (not birdy) is on field during match

An African nation to reach the Semi-finals

ICE makes a capture at the stadium

Over 8.5 penalties missed (excludes shoot-outs)

Goal scored from own half

Fans invade field during match

Player throws captains armband

Headbutt during match

Player wearing a face mask in semi-final match

King Charles attends match

Will any player be seen drinking gatorade during a hydration break?

Knockout Stage (incl 3rd/4th) to match or exceed Group-Stage scoring average

Coach on camera during match smelling finger(s)

All 48 teams score at least 1 goal

Scorigami (a match ends in a score that has never happened at a World Cup; for the purpose of this answer refers only to result before extra time / shootout)

Another match with 3+ red cards

Any team with <3 points advances from the group stage

Asia team reaches semi final

Football is coming home?

Voodoo doll or alive chicken in stands

All teams concede at least 1 goal in group stage

Any player injured in opening group match & out for rest of tournament

Player walks off pitch protesting referee

Team wins a match without making a single substitution

Major security incident

Ronaldo puts up the goose egg (excludes any penalty or shootout)

Will both brothers of any pair score at this World Cup?

Player wearing oxygen mask on sideline

German Freddy is uncovered to be the marketing stunt

15+ cards in any match

Player bit during match

Trump attends 3 or more games

Pulisic top Team USA goal scorer

Bonnie Blue attending a match

Erling Haaland to win the Golden Boot

Over 1.5 of the visible penis in world cup tourney (during match, on pitch)

Olimpico goal (goal scored directly from corner kick, counts if corner taker is credited as the goalscorer by FIFA)

Match is forfeited

Trump dancing at match

The fastest goal of the tournament is scored within 30 seconds

10+ goals in any match

An over-enthusiastic goal celebration results in a shattered corner flag

Team gets removed or disqualified

Player arrested / detained at any time of tournament

USA plays Iran

The Netherlands does not survive group stage

Goalkeeper scores a non-penalty goal

Team finishes third in group and makes it to final

Oldest player in tournament gets a yellow card

Shooting incident (non-ball) at stadium

Mohamed Salah (Egypt) scores 5+ goals during Group Stage Fixtures (Round of 64)

Player suffers cardiac arrest

Someone from Trump administration celebrating in locker room

Total goals in the tournament to exceed 400

Match delayed due to homophobic crowd chant

Player shits in the pants during match

Team gets to final on all penalty shoot-outs in knockout rounds

Omar Artan is at a World Cup match

Players / members of team attempt to defect

Confirmed case of Ebola at the match

Ronaldo does jerkin move

A group-stage match is decided by a freak "Olympico" goal scored directly from a corner

Player dies during World Cup

A third-placed team is eliminated with 4+ points

Match delayed due to anti-Trump crowd chant

Fastest goal record beaten (11 seconds)

Player drinking Liquid Death at hydration break

Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei attending a match

All 3 host countries win the opener

Ronaldo scores before Messi

Yudkowsky Attends

Two people make intense eye contact for 60 seconds without smiling or laughing

Aella Attends

Mana is exchanged for goods

Mana is exchanged for services

There will be more than one reporter

Someone attends in a partial fursuit

Smores are consumed

Someone wears a suit and tie

There are at least five people talking after 5am

Trump golfs the weekend of the conference

Barak sells/offers something at night market

Standard (not RPS) poker tournament

Someone does the 6 7 thing with their hands in front of Eliezer Yudkowsky and he clearly sees it

Someone cries

>4 people group hug

10+ people with a Wikipedia page attend

Robin Hanson comes even though he's meant to be at the Public Outreach Conference

Albie gets hugs from at least 5 different people

Someone holds a kabbalat shabbat

cuddle puddle of >5

Someone gets banned from manifest

More than five (non-admin) mods in attendance

Someone gets a job offer at the conference

Someone does something to make an option resolve Yes and later regrets it

All official @ManifoldSports World Cup markets for games played during the conference auto-resolve without issues

Attendance is higher than last year

There is a Karaoke Event

There will be a marshmallow fight

Someone gets a boyfriend at the conference

Someone previously opposed to the Effective Altruism movement is convinced to support it instead

@Zoli hosts a wrestling event

A debate is held over whether a fursuit is full or partial

A billionaire shows up

one or more people are unable to attend due to fuckery at border/customs

Someone breakdances competently

Someone takes the "Giving What We Can" pledge

A session receives more than 2x RSVPs than the session location’s listed capacity

Analytic Philosophy vs. Rationalism panel happens

someone gets convinced to start writing on substack

Someone adds >= 10k liquidity to this market

7 or more people attend Sunday Mass with @Austin

there will be someone with a friend AI necklace

Malcolm Collins attends

Someone unpacks a Pokemon card worth >$10

10 or more markets are created and resolved within an hour (popups)

Someone writes a hit piece

Someone adds >= 20k liquidity to this market

Someone gets a girlfriend at the conference

Someone changes Robin Hanson's mind (verified by Hanson) - NA if he doesn't attend

Someone has a manifold crane logo tattoo

RPS Poker Tournament

BTC falls below $100,000 during the conference

There is a Costume Contest

CFTC or other prediction market regulator appears (may be an employee)

Someone rickrolls Eliezer Yudkowsky

At least 3 Norwegian people attend Manifest.

There is a New York Times reporter present, like Manifest 2023

Someone loses at least 50% of one eyebrow

Nothing Ever Happens during the conference (No major world news breaks such as Ukraine Ceasefire, China Trade Deal, etc)

Someone loses at least 25% of their total eyebrow mass

There's an earthquake in Berkeley 3.0 or higher

Scott Alexander mentions Tyler Cowen in public (no private convo)

Prostitution for mana occurs (over 10k mana)

@ian finally reveals what his new middle name is

Someone unpacks a Pokemon card worth >$50

Someone attends in a full fursuit

Dwarkesh reveals who his "biggest guest yet" was going to be

There is an orgy

An article about the conference appears in the New York Times within one week of the conference's closing

Someone breaks an arm

Someone who previously did not belive that Tiramisu is cake is convinced otherwise

Runs out of Huel/Soylent

A pope attends

There is more than one orgy

There will be a Worldcoin Orb

Someone does coinflips and gets tails 7 times in a row

Destiny joins Manifold and bets on this market

Polymarket creates a market related to manifest

Someone finally sets up a passable ball pit

The conference is cancelled

“Manifold pro” or similar status w perks

Profile hats

Profile pic borders

Profile Hovercard borders

Leverage (loan) rate increases

Bonus streak forgiveness / freezes

Coolfold's Jester hat

Top hat

Halo

Devil horns

Cat ears

Crystal ball icon on pfp

Wizard hat

Fire-themed hovercard (requires Streak >100days to buy)

Stonks arrow (over pfp)

Bull/Bear horns/ears

Monocle

Cosmetic badges

Some kind of Whale design on pfp, or on hovercard, gated behind 1m all-time volume

Additional site themes

Consumable market decorations

A unique hat that can only be owned by one person but can be stolen

Profile page layout customization

trader bonus multiplier

Spoiler mode (hide current probabilities)

Create a clan / community / group

MtG mana color symbols

Consumable item that lets you highlight a comment

Access to detailed Predictle stats (eg of past games, or of other players' performance)

Discord perks

Boost discounts (limited purchase, e.g. 2/ mo)

Custom league cohort packs for inviting friends to compete

Extra predictle sets

Elon Musk

David Reich

Jensen Huang

Dylan Patel (as guest)

Sarah Paine

Nicholas Carlini

Dwarkesh Patel (see note)

Dean Ball

Demis Hassabis

Yann LeCun

Tyler Cowen

Dean Spears

Alec Radford

Amanda Askell

Jack Clark

Joscha Bach

Sundar Pichai

Gary Marcus

Ian Morris

Daniel Kokotajlo

Satya Nadella

Joe Henrich

Scott Alexander

Michael Dell

Noam Brown

Paul J Werbos

Holden Karnofsky

Eliezer Yudkowsky

roon

Mira Murati

Hans Moravec

Zvi Mowshowitz

Ilya Sutskever

François Chollet

Michael Levin

Helen Toner

Ajeya Cotra

Doris Taylor

Carl Shulman

Sam Altman

Jeff Bezos

Janus @repligate

Nick Bostrom

Liang Wenfeng (CEO of DeepSeek)

Andrej Karpathy

Matt Levine

George Hotz

Bill Gates

Joe Carlsmith

Tanner Greer

Tamay Besiroglu

Mustafa Suleyman

Nate Soares

Mark Zuckerberg

Dan Hendrycks

Robert Caro

Barack Obama

Xiao Hong (CEO of Manus AI)

Kamala Harris

Donald Trump

Sweden joins NATO

Death Stranding 2 out

Sailing skill releases for Runescape (Old School)

chat gpt 5 releases

Donald Trump OR Vince McMahon OR Hunter Biden OR Alec Baldwin OR Andrew Tate found guilty of a crime

Imu Face Reveal

bitcoin reaches $80k usd on google

Bitcoin reaches $70k USD on google

the end of 2024

the end of 2025

Ides of March 2025

Jimmy Carter passes away or is murdered

Bitcoin reaches 100k usd

Chapter 1200 comes out and he still has not found the one piece

Pluton revealed or used or production started

Gta 6 comes out

Taylor Swift married

manifold reaches 2000 engaged users

reddit r/Worldnews unpins the Russia/Ukraine thread

King Charles no longer king of UK

ChatGPT 6 released

Sanji finds all blue

Officially supported Netflix app for Apple vision pro

OnePieceExplained reaches 50k subscribers https://www.youtube.com/@onepieceexplained

Noam chomsky passes away

kaidou is seen again in the manga

Kingdom Hearts 4 out

one of the straw hats dies

arlong is seen again in the manga

UFC 350 takes place

Datura Lacroye releases 3 original albums and 3 cover albums

Juice wrld's the party never ends will drop

nuclear detonation or test happens (jan 2024 onward)

dragon ball super manga ends

Manifold user charts on the Billboard 200

ukraine joins EU

manifold reaches 3000 engaged users

donald trump spends a day in prison

human sets foot on moon again

Pigs Fly

China invades Taiwan or resolves conflict

ukraine joins NATO

hunter biden serves a day in jail

Destiny retires from streaming

6th bitcoin halving

Windows 12 end of life date

someone reaches 1B in mana profit on Manifold

Buggy the clown dies

Singularity happens

Nice bulge / outline

Dildo in stands

YES PENIS 😃

Floppy

In the stands?

Non-player

Straight shape

During match

With ball(s)

White

2 or more

Cut

American

In USA

Dildo on field

Uncut

Shaved pubes

European

Average

Full nudity

Thick

Curved shape

In Mexico

South American

Thin

NO PENIS 😢

In Canada

Black

On Sideline

African

Big

Touches grass

On Field

Half-chub

Middle Eastern

After match

At match attended by King, Queen or Prince of nation playing

At match attended by a Spice Girl

Asian

Peeking out of the shorts

Small

BTS

Israeli / Palestinian

Any Player

Just the tip

Prince Albert

Painted

Erect

Referee

At match attended by Trump

Ronaldo's

Messi's

Mbappe

Trump

Infantino

Tuchel

Ancelotti

Mamdani

Mark Carney

Other

Kamala Harris

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez

Ivanka Trump

Gretchen Whitmer

Nikki Haley

Stacey Abrams

Kristi Noem

Anna Paulina Luna

Deb Haaland

Krystal Ball

Carly Fiorina

Michelle Obama

Katie Porter

Elizabeth Warren

Tammy Baldwin

Tammy Duckworth

Oprah Winfrey

Michelle Lujan Grisham

Sarah Huckabee Sanders

Ayanna Pressley

Joni Ernst

Tina Kotek

Katie Hobbs

Barbara Lee

Young Kim

Lucy McBath

Cori Bush

Hillary Clinton

Kim Bowes

Henry Oliver

Magnus Carlsen

Dean Ball

Francis Fukuyama

Rebecca Lowe

Emily Wilson

Patrick Collison (again)

C Thi Nguyen

Tom Holland (the historian)

Jamie Dimon

Caroline Shaw

Hollis Robbins

Bishop Robert Barron

William Gibson

Robert Sapolsky

Sir Demis Hassabis

Jonathan Sumption

Ted Chiang

Samuel Scheffler

Will Baude

Jan Swafford

Knausgaard (again)

Jensen Huang

Aella

Kathleen Tyson

John Ioannidis

Werner Herzog

Vaclav Smil

Haruki Murakami

Cremieux

Michel Houellebecq

David Runciman

William Hague

Ben Goldacre

Oprah Winfrey

Dua Lipa

Hillary Clinton

Thomas Sowell

Bari Weiss

Novak Djokovic

Bill Gates

Lana Del Rey

Scott Alexander

Someone qualifies 12 balls in 2025

Eivind Dragsjo wins the 2025 Numbers Juggling League

Someone performs the trick f4444444444, from and to a cascade, before the end of 2026 (similarly to https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=42LOiJE5yLg)

Someone flashes 15 balls before the end of 2027

Someone flashes 14 balls in 2025

At least 5 different endurance world records will be broken in 2025

At least 10 different endurance world records will be broken in 2025

Someone flashes 10 clubs in 2025

Ends within 10 years of release of first episode

S.P.E.W (Society for the Promotion of Elfish Welfare) is featured

Blast-ended skrewt is shown

The same actors play school-age Harry, Ron, and Hermione throughout

Covers all 7 books (i.e. not cancelled/ended early)

St Mungo's Hospital is shown

Colin Creevey is in more than 2 seasons

Ends within 9 years of release of first episode

Is 7 seasons

Harry wears a pointy wizard hat in more than 1 season

Harry Potters most used (spoken) spell is "Expelliarmus"

Ends within 8 years of release of first episode

Muggle Studies class is ever shown

The same actor plays Dumbledore throughout (barring flashbacks/flashforwards with age differences)

Wins at least 1 Primetime Emmy

Wins at least 1 Primetime Emmy in an acting category

Every season is 10 episodes or fewer

Ends within 7 years of release of first episode

Arithmancy class is ever shown

A child actor comes out as trans before 2050

An actor comes out as trans before 2050

There's an episode without Harry on screen at all (barring recap, intro, outro, credits, sneak peeks, etc.)

Book character Cho Chang (i.e. person Harry asks to the Yule Ball) has a different name

Nikke

Arknights

Honkai: Star Rail

Dragon Ball Legends

Gakuen Idolmaster

Azur Lane

Disney Twisted-Wonderland

Puzzle & Dragons

Monster Strike

Bloodborne

Hearthstone

Love and Deepspace

Fate/Grand Order

Starsector

The Duskbloods

Alan Wake 2

Genshin Impact

Clash of Clans

2KXO

Candy Crush Saga

World of Warcraft

Valorant

Subway Surfers

League of Legends

Roblox

Star Citizen

Minecraft

Pokemon TCG Pocket

Fortnite

Thompson (2025) "Précis of the blind spot: Why science cannot ignore human experience"

Shimony (1963) "Role of the Observer in Quantum Theory"

French (2025) "Why quantum mechanics needs phenomenology"

Wheeler (1977) "Include the Observer in the Wave Function?"

Pienaar (2021) "QBism and Relational Quantum Mechanics compared"

London & Bauer (1939) "The Theory of Observation in Quantum Mechanics"

Zahavi (2025) "Quantum phenomenology Measurement, reflection, correlation"

Dennett & Kinsbourne (1992) "Time and the observer: The where and when of consciousness in the brain"

Barandiaran et al. (2009) "Defining Agency: Individuality, Normativity, Asymmetry, and Spatio-temporality in Action”

Putnam (1981) "Quantum mechanics and the observer"

Fields (2012) "If Physics Is an Information Science, What Is an Observer?"

Kent (2016) "Quanta and Qualia"

Ball (2023) "How Life Works: A User’s Guide to the New Biology"

James (1879) "Are We Automata?"

Islami & Wiltsche (2025) "The French crisis Rethinking the phenomenology of quantum mechanics"

Pienaar (2025) "French on London and Bauer, and QBism"

Nave (2025) "A Drive to Survive"

Manzotti (2025) "A Deflationary Account of Information in Terms of Probability"

Tod & Thompson (2025) "The Third Entity: Participatory Sense-Making, Agency, and Attentional Dynamics"

Stoica (2025) "What makes you an observer?"