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Prediction markets for Baltics

Will Russia launch an invasion against at least one of the Baltic states by February 2029?

Nov 6, 4:14 PMFeb 3, 7:59 AM

20.12%chance

8245799

OptionVotes

YES

NO

11819

6607

Will Russia attack Baltic states (Lithuania, Latvia or Estonia) by 2030?

Jan 21, 1:09 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

25.04%chance

8824297

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1090

1073

Will Kaliningrad achieve independence from Russia by the end of 2026?

Feb 4, 5:32 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

2.72%chance

6418412

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2953

891

If Russia starts a war against a Baltic state, will the US military engage in combat against the Russian military?

May 20, 7:33 AMJan 27, 10:59 PM

44.05%chance

589686

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1127

887

Will "Rail Baltica" be operational by mid-2030?

May 21, 10:38 AMJul 1, 8:59 PM

11.78%chance

235162

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2044

748

Will Rail Baltica be completed by the end of 2026?

Aug 13, 8:08 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

1%chance

135065

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5384

829

Air Baltic defaults on 2024 14.5% EUR bond before August 14, 2029?

Apr 22, 8:31 PMAug 13, 11:59 PM

55%chance

153963

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1106

905

Will Russia attempt to militarily seize the Suwałki Gap before 2030?

Feb 26, 6:24 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

19.03%chance

282692

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1016

492

Will Russia attempt to militarily seize the Suwałki Gap before the end of 2026?

May 5, 6:02 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

8%chance

141235

OptionVotes

YES

NO

339

29

Russia's Next Target

Jan 17, 8:07 AMApr 26, 8:12 PM

17778

OptionProbability

Transnistria (Moldova)

Baltic States (Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania)

Other

Poland

Finland

Belarus

Turkey

Moldova

Greenland

USA

Kaliningrad (internal)

Azerbaijan

Hybrid warfare against NATO members

34

28

8

7

5

5

3

3

2

1

1

1

1

Will Russia attempt to militarily seize the Suwałki Gap before the end of 2028?

May 5, 6:03 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

7.67%chance

10269

OptionVotes

YES

NO

347

29

Poland becomes the "Israel of Europe" by 2050?

Mar 4, 8:37 PMMar 11, 10:59 PM

23%chance

6121

OptionVotes

YES

NO

183

55

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