OptionProbability
Nothing Ever Happens (Nothing Happens)
Direct military engagement between either G20 members, or the use of nuclear weapons
An AI kills a human without explicitly being given a task
Other (10m+ deaths)
350+ million climate-displaced persons annually
US Treasury payment default or missed obligation
Worldwide Pandemic
55
37
32
14
10
8
5
Cheryl Venable
Paula Tkac
Other
Kartik Athreya
25
24
Better future
Worse future
Same Future
38
35
27
