OptionProbability
Nothing Ever Happens (Nothing Happens)
Direct military engagement between either G20 members, or the use of nuclear weapons
An AI kills a human without explicitly being given a task
Other (10m+ deaths)
Worldwide Pandemic
350+ million climate-displaced persons annually
US Treasury payment default or missed obligation
55
37
32
14
12
10
8
Other
Paula Tkac
Cheryl Venable
Kartik Athreya
79
13
6
2
Better future
Worse future
Same Future
38
35
27
OptionVotes
YES
NO
110
91
