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Prediction markets for Bard AI

By 2029, will there be a public "rogue AI" incident?

Feb 19, 6:51 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

89.33%chance

444093

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1453

934

Will Apple have a top tier AI tool developed in house and available to consumers by the of 2025?

Nov 20, 4:30 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

25.91%chance

221749

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1661

616

Will a major AI lab claim to use activation steering in its main chat assistant by EOY 2025?

Jan 25, 9:12 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

25.15%chance

15582

OptionVotes

YES

NO

226

110

Will generative artificial intelligence be banned in at least one G7 country by the end of 2026?

Jul 29, 2:49 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

15%chance

12407

OptionVotes

YES

NO

238

42

Will the US restrict access outside the US to some APIs to generative AI before 2026?

May 16, 3:19 PMDec 31, 8:00 PM

35.95%chance

13376

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1200

853

Will an AI chatbot overtake Google as the most used search engine by 2030?

Aug 3, 6:57 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

45.27%chance

6315

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1100

909

[Carlini questions] At least one of OpenAI, Anthropic, or DeepMind will be functionally dead

Mar 24, 2:33 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

4147

OptionProbability

By Jan 1st 2029

By Jan 1st 2030

By Jan 1st 2028

By Jan 1st 2027

By Jan 1st 2026

34

34

26

17

5

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