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Prediction markets for Bard AI

Will Apple have a top tier AI tool developed in house and available to consumers by the of 2025?

Nov 20, 4:30 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

6.34%chance

274669

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3868

278

By 2029, will there be a public "rogue AI" incident?

Feb 19, 6:51 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

89.33%chance

444093

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1453

934

Will the US restrict access outside the US to some APIs to generative AI before 2026?

May 16, 3:19 PMDec 31, 8:00 PM

9.35%chance

172280

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3094

404

By when will Google add ads to Gemini?

Dec 8, 7:05 PMDec 8, 6:54 PM

81807

OptionProbability

By Jan 1, 2028

By Jan 1, 2027

By Dec 1, 2026

By Nov 1, 2026

By Oct 1, 2026

By Sep 1, 2026

By Aug 1, 2026

By Jul 1, 2026

By Jun 1, 2026

By Mar 1, 2026

By May 1, 2026

By Apr 1, 2026

By Feb 1, 2026

By Jan 1, 2026

86

59

48

47

46

38

29

23

21

18

18

17

15

3

Will generative artificial intelligence be banned in at least one G7 country by the end of 2026?

Jul 29, 2:49 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

14.94%chance

15732

OptionVotes

YES

NO

239

42

Will a major AI lab claim to use activation steering in its main chat assistant by EOY 2025?

Jan 25, 9:12 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

25.15%chance

15582

OptionVotes

YES

NO

226

110

Will an AI chatbot overtake Google as the most used search engine by 2030?

Aug 3, 6:57 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

42.45%chance

8445

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1164

859

[Carlini questions] At least one of OpenAI, Anthropic, or DeepMind will be functionally dead

Mar 24, 2:33 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

5149

OptionProbability

By Jan 1st 2030

By Jan 1st 2029

By Jan 1st 2028

By Jan 1st 2027

By Jan 1st 2026

36

33

26

17

5

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