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Prediction markets for Base Business

1. Anthropic will go public. OpenAI will not.

Dec 28, 11:06 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

72%chance

4512897

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1605

624

Will GiveWell fund Community health promoters (eg those run by Living Goods) by 1st January 2027?

Dec 17, 7:05 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

21.51%chance

195543

OptionVotes

YES

NO

10062

2804

Will we have a "text to polymer-sequence-that-folds-into-a-nanomachine-with-the-requirements-from-text" AI by 2040?

May 25, 12:30 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

38.95%chance

91300

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3864

3220

Will any country officially ban or heavily restrict the use of advanced AI systems before January 1, 2027

Mar 19, 4:50 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

25.96%chance

131199

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1689

592

Will Nectome perform 1,000+ brain preservations in a single calendar year before 2040?

Mar 18, 11:01 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

23.06%chance

111141

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1827

547

Will Uber raise the default minimum suggested tip?

Mar 13, 10:38 PMSep 2, 6:59 AM

17.02%chance

14645

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1552

839

Will Peter McCormack become Mayor of Bedford before 2030?

Jul 16, 10:17 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

41.07%chance

3300

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1198

835

Will Florida PALM go live as scheduled on January 11, 2027?

May 30, 2:07 AMJan 11, 11:59 PM

40.98%chance

1200

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1200

833

Will the AI-based carbon emissions tracking startup reach 100 paying business customers by December 31, 2026?

Jan 9, 2:42 PMDec 30, 11:59 PM

57.01%chance

10162

OptionVotes

NO

YES

115

87

Will Saudi Aramco Emissions end at?

Mar 8, 9:04 PMMar 8, 10:59 PM

00

OptionProbability

Below 90

90 - 99

100 - 109

110 - 119

120 - 130

Above 130

17

17

17

17

17

17

Will Apple Emissions end at?

Mar 8, 9:12 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

00

OptionProbability

Below 0.6

0.06 - 0.07

0.07 - 0.08

0.08 - 0.09

0.09 - 0.10

Above 0.10

17

17

17

17

17

17

Will Chevron Emissions end at?

Mar 8, 9:02 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

00

OptionProbability

Below 58

58 - 59.9

60 - 61.9

62 - 63.9

64 - 65.9

66+

17

17

17

17

17

17

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