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Prediction markets for Base Chain

Will climate change decimate humans before 2050?

Oct 31, 6:40 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

8.2%chance

14590456

OptionVotes

YES

NO

6961

3818

Will there be troops or federal agents at US voting booths in 2026 or 2028?

Feb 3, 9:42 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

35.79%chance

8930397

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1934

1852

Will the Supreme Court weaken Section 2 of the Voting Rights Act in Louisiana v. Callais?

Oct 17, 7:08 PMOct 17, 11:59 PM

69.67%chance

1914646

OptionVotes

NO

YES

15156

6598

Will climate change decimate humans before 2070?

Nov 2, 12:54 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

17.63%chance

305094

OptionVotes

NO

YES

984

956

Will climate change decimate humans before 2090?

Nov 2, 12:55 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

20.88%chance

474636

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1087

918

[MIT AI Risk Initiative] Will AI be blamed for ≥1,000 deaths by end of 2035?

Dec 4, 3:24 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

74.62%chance

7955

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1715

583

Will blockchain technology be used for storing at least 10% of global GDP by 2027?

Nov 15, 1:49 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

30%chance

10916

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1528

655

Will a single model have all the upsides o1-style RL with none of the downsides at 2027?

Nov 20, 5:32 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

60.14%chance

11872

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1228

814

Will a general molecular assembler, as imagined by Eric Drexler, be built before 2035?

Nov 2, 4:01 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

32.46%chance

14587

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1139

442

Will an AGI be trained on cheap, accessible hardware before 2040?

Mar 18, 4:15 AMJan 1, 6:59 AM

56.49%chance

11262

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1139

878

Will a Russian actor be publicly attributed with stealing weights from a frontier AI developer before 2030?

Oct 30, 11:42 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

50.47%chance

3107

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1059

1041

Lynas reports at least one month production loss in 2026?

Nov 25, 1:26 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

67.48%chance

370

OptionVotes

NO

YES

144

69

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