Base ecosystem News

Did Alibaba's ROME AI try to breach its sandbox during training?

Mar 7, 1:33 AMMar 14, 1:28 AM

19745815

OptionProbability

YES - The AI, without being prompted to, took actions to breach its sandbox, including to gain crypto and an external connection

NO - The authors are wrong/lying and there was no such hack

NO - The servers were hacked by an outside party, perhaps via prompt injection

NO - An employee (or other insider) was crypto-mining and made it look like the LLM

Will a Russian-developed LLM reach the top 100 on LMSYS Chatbot Arena by end of 2026?

Oct 29, 1:28 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

16%chance

132054

OptionVotes

YES

2291

436

3. China’s AI chip sector make significant strides, planting seeds for eventual decline on Nvidia [See full title!]

Dec 28, 11:24 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

65.32%chance

10603

OptionVotes

YES

1375

730

Will China have more phase 3 drug trials than the United States in year X?

Jun 13, 11:07 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

2440

OptionProbability

2030

2029

2028

2027

2026

China provides Russia >100k AI chips by 2030?

Oct 30, 12:17 PMJul 1, 10:59 PM

53.68%chance

5220

OptionVotes

YES

1145

982

Kramer Intelligence overtakes Apple Intelligence by the end of 2026?

Jul 4, 10:55 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

9.28%chance

6213

OptionVotes

YES

313

Will the CFTC file regulatory action against Manifold Markets for transactions involving the exchange of mana by 2030?

Nov 25, 12:39 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

13.27%chance

6157

OptionVotes

YES

223

Will Model Intelligence diverge from consumer market share?

Apr 14, 12:44 AMApr 14, 12:30 AM

665

OptionProbability

Yes

N/A (unclear)

Will GigaChat release an open-weights model with ≥100B parameters by the end of 2026?

Oct 29, 1:25 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

45.25%chance

110

OptionVotes

YES

110

Will Baltimore "happen" for the DC policy crowd before 2028?

Jun 13, 6:14 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

50%chance

OptionVotes

YES

100

Base ecosystem News

Prediction markets for Base ecosystem

Prediction markets for Base ecosystem

Prediction markets for Base ecosystem

Did Alibaba's ROME AI try to breach its sandbox during training?

Will a Russian-developed LLM reach the top 100 on LMSYS Chatbot Arena by end of 2026?

3. China’s AI chip sector make significant strides, planting seeds for eventual decline on Nvidia [See full title!]

Will China have more phase 3 drug trials than the United States in year X?

China provides Russia >100k AI chips by 2030?

Kramer Intelligence overtakes Apple Intelligence by the end of 2026?

Will the CFTC file regulatory action against Manifold Markets for transactions involving the exchange of mana by 2030?

Will Model Intelligence diverge from consumer market share?

Will GigaChat release an open-weights model with ≥100B parameters by the end of 2026?

Will Baltimore "happen" for the DC policy crowd before 2028?

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