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Prediction markets for Base Protocol

will trump be assasinated in US?

Mar 7, 1:13 AMDec 31, 1:12 AM

5.48%chance

334501

OptionVotes

YES

NO

415

24

Will Pete Hegseth go to prison?

Dec 21, 5:14 AMDec 21, 5:12 AM

143990

OptionProbability

Not before 31 December 2030

in 2030

in 2028

in 2029

in 2026

in 2027

80

7

5

5

2

2

Will blockchain technology be used for storing at least 10% of global GDP by 2027?

Nov 15, 1:49 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

18.46%chance

191770

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2102

476

Will OpenAI de-deploy GPT-5.5 before 2027 for safety, security, cyber-risk, or other threat-related reasons?

May 4, 6:24 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

1%chance

8940

OptionVotes

YES

NO

995

10

What lasting peace deal will come first? Russia's or Iran's?

Aug 29, 8:29 AMDec 30, 11:59 PM

29.6%chance

8679

OptionVotes

YES

NO

994

100

Will the FDA publicly accept a multi-condition geroscience endpoint as sufficient to establish efficacy before 2036?

Jul 14, 11:45 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

57.59%chance

7575

OptionVotes

NO

YES

6240

5801

Proof of Personhood SDK stock

Apr 8, 8:05 PMApr 9, 6:29 PM

21351

OptionProbability

NO

YES

416

404

When will we be able to reversibly preserve isolated primate brains at least 50 yrs with function and memories intact?

Jan 9, 8:36 PMJun 2, 6:59 AM

4300

OptionProbability

2061 or beyond or never

2055-2060

2035-2040

2040-2045

2045-2050

2050-2055

2030-2035

2024-2030

34

12

10

10

10

10

9

5

Will the FDA publicly accept a multi-condition geroscience endpoint as sufficient to establish efficacy before 2041?

Jul 14, 11:49 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

61.17%chance

2255

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1255

797

Will the FDA publicly accept a multi-condition geroscience endpoint as sufficient to establish efficacy before 2031?

Jul 14, 11:49 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

52.44%chance

150

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1050

952

Will HBM3e supply exit shortage status before 2026-12-31?

May 4, 8:22 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

25.52%chance

445

OptionVotes

YES

NO

134

85

Will https://www.tetsuwan.com/ Series A by EOY2028?

May 15, 1:20 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

51.96%chance

14

OptionVotes

NO

YES

104

96

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