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BASED Ai News

Will a purely AI-based news agency exist by the year 2030?

Jan 4, 5:17 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

81.8%chance

5323348

OptionVotes

YES

NO

986

955

In 2026, will the largest AI-based commercial forecasting system (by revenue) have a platform-wide Brier score <0.1?

May 25, 4:22 AMJul 2, 6:59 AM

21.79%chance

102103

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1895

528

Will Chinese social credit system be thought to be based on AI with own goals by end of 2035?

May 21, 2:42 PMDec 31, 6:59 PM

23.06%chance

91022

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1846

568

Will an AI be successfully trained to play Populous The Beginning multiplayer based on bottom-up data (like video training data) by the year 2030?

Jan 1, 7:33 AMNov 1, 5:01 AM

69.04%chance

40901

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1091

946

GPT-Zero: By 2030, will anyone develop an AI with a massive GPT-like knowledge base that it taught itself?

Jun 1, 8:22 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

34.93%chance

23884

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1144

495

Will someone I know be targeted by a generative AI based scam by EoY 2028?

Feb 23, 2:20 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

85.46%chance

22789

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1544

854

Will the METR AI coding uplift market be resolved based on the Feb 2026 updated estimate?

Feb 24, 6:32 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

18.34%chance

7654

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1089

979

There will be a company which offers LLM or AI-based arbitration by 2030

Jan 17, 9:14 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

83.15%chance

14384

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1078

967

By 2030, will an architectural firm design and construct a building based entirely on specifications generated by AI?

May 19, 3:37 PMJan 1, 6:29 AM

62.04%chance

19362

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1010

954

Will someone I know be targeted by a generative AI based scam by EoY 2026?

Feb 23, 6:01 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

69.65%chance

15361

OptionVotes

YES

NO

998

986

If intelligent aliens visit us, will AI-based technologies outperform analog linguistics in translating their language?

Mar 30, 12:12 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

69.65%chance

13186

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1037

977

By 2030, will a major intelligence agency acknowledge using AI-based steganographic techniques for an operation?

May 20, 9:08 AMJan 1, 6:29 PM

27.75%chance

10105

OptionVotes

NO

YES

993

993

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